WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 5? PLUS, I’VE GOT A PLAN!

WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 5? PLUS, I’VE GOT A PLAN!

By Bill Ellis

I have a plan to strengthen college football schedules across the board that could begin next season.

How? We’ll hit them in the wallet. That’s right, in the wallet. If you are paying an opponent, amend the contract to read that their payment will be reduced 10% for every lower division team on their schedule. For a little more fun, add an additional amount like 1% penalty for every one of their opponents that is playing a lower division team. Now, what about conference opponents? Hit them, too. Make them sacrifice 10% of their TV money back into the pool to be redistributed to the other conference members.

The downside of this plan could be the end of spotless 12-0 regular seasons. The upside is a much better barometer for measuring teams. I’ll sacrifice the style points for something more substantial.

RULE CHANGES RANT—I’ve got to get this off my chest. I hate that some calls are reviewable and others aren’t. I understand holding on the offensive line shouldn’t be because games would never end, but many others should be.

One area I want reviewed which should only take 10 seconds is on fights. If the player flagged is retaliating, let’s get a penalty on the original transgressor, too. Let’s also pick up those dead ball actions of jerks like Dillon Day.

One semi-rules rant is that with all of the millions and billions being spent to televise every game (Henderson State and SE Oklahoma was on in Atlanta last Thursday) why can’t the networks add a few more cameras to the stadiums? Would the game be damaged if colleges had at least as many angles as the NFL? Let’s start with four angles at every touchdown marker.

This past week—I said this was how I thought this week’s top five would look

2014 WEEK 5 POINTS RE CO RD   LAST RANK
1 TEXAS AM 177.3223 5 0   9
2 SOUTH CAROLINA 173.6819 4 1   4
3 NEBRASKA 166.891 5 0   6
4 NC STATE 154.004 5 0   13
5 OKLAHOMA 149.7809 4 0   1

 

These picks were contingent on Florida State losing to NC State and Stanford losing to Washington. Neither of these happened, but both games were a whole lot closer than most thought. In addition, Missouri bounced back from its loss to Indiana to beat South Carolina. Missouri is probably out of the national championship picture, but they can still win the SEC EAST, so, theoretically, they can still have a huge impact by potentially taking the SEC out of the playoffs by winning the SEC.

The question I’m hearing a lot right now is which teams REALLY look like championship material? It’s still hard to say especially with three of the teams near the top of eveybody’s rankings—Oklahoma, Alabama and Oregon—all having open dates last week. There were some great games last week with many teams getting scares, but the only teams that may have been eliminated that were realistically eliminated were Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Penn State and NC State.

There are a slew of games this week that should help define the course of the season, but the loser of these will not be fully eliminated yet: LSU—Auburn, if LSU wins; Alabama—Ole Miss; Mississippi State—Texas A&M; Nebraska—Michigan State, if Michigan State wins; Ohio State—Maryland; TCU—Oklahoma; Baylor—Texas, if Texas wins; Georgia Tech—Miami, if Miami wins; UCLA—Utah, if Utah wins; Notre Dame—Stanford and BYU—Utah State.

My list of the teams I believe can still win the national championship is now down to 24 with 16 unbeatens. These are: Texas A&M, Nebraska, Florida State, Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, BYU, Notre Dame, Oregon, Alabama, Arizona, Baylor, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, USC, Maryland, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Stanford and LSU. I also believe there are approximately 10 other 1- and 2-loss teams that can still have a dramatic effect on which teams are ultimately selected.

The relevant teams that rose the most in the rankings were Missouri 40 spots to #5, USC 41 spots to #13, Georgia 48 spots to #16, Baylor 30 spots to #17, and Stanford 70 spots to #26. Northwestern and Air Force earned their mentions by rising 110 and 88 spots to be ranked 40th and 51st, respectively.

Several teams lost more than 50 spots, but these were either MAC or 1-AA teams.

Here’s how the top 30 looks this week:

LAST
2014 WEEK 5 POINTS RE CO RD RANK
1 TEXAS AM 167.8447 5 0 9
2 NEBRASKA 166.4176 5 0 6
3 FLORIDA ST 145.029 4 0 21
4 SOUTH CAROLINA 139.2996 3 2 4
5 MISSOURI 137.7107 4 1 45
6 OKLAHOMA 132.5183 4 0 1
7 AUBURN 132.1808 4 0 7
8 UCLA 129.3366 4 0 12
9 BYU 126.0742 4 0 3
10 NOTRE DAME 121.2546 4 0 23
11 OREGON 120.4639 4 0 11
12 ALABAMA 118.033 4 0 2
13 USC 110.5579 3 1 54
14 ARIZONA 110.1425 4 0 8
15 MARYLAND 109.9883 4 1 22
16 GEORGIA 107.7768 3 1 64
17 BAYLOR 102.3782 4 0 47
18 ARKANSAS 100.8348 3 2 15
19 NC STATE 100.3271 4 1 13
20 MIAMI 98.59408 3 2 33
21 MISSISSIPPI 98.312 4 0 24
22 OKLAHOMA ST 97.26068 3 1 31
23 LOUISVILLE 96.842 4 1 37
24 MISSISSIPPI ST 96.55832 4 0 5
25 ILLINOIS 95.77176 3 2 36
26 STANFORD 93.985 3 1 96
27 LSU 90.6228 4 1 18
28 EAST CAROLINA 90.37456 3 1 14
29 IOWA 89.37116 4 1 26
30 MINNESOTA 88.78176 4 1 50

The first questions that would jump out at me would be why is South Carolina still ranked #4 and ahead of Missouri who just beat them and why is Alabama out of the top 10 when they were #2 last week?

Here’s why–South Carolina had a GREAT week strength-of-schedule wise. Great enough that they ended up with about ten more points than they had last week. It helps that they haven’t played their 1-AA opponent yet and haven’t had their open date. These two things will catch up with them. If Missouri had played a stronger schedule, they’d be ranked ahead of South Carolina. Alabama and Oregon were hurt by their open weeks, and their strength of schedule isn’t helping very much. Oklahoma’s SOS was actually negative. Mississippi State fell for the same reasons.

This is how the final four finish according to my projections now. A&M beats Oregon for the national title. If A&M wins its next three games, the other polls should have them #1, too, no matter what any other team does.

 

LAST
2014 WEEK 17 POINTS RECORD RANK
1 TEXAS AM 602.8932 15 0 1
2 OREGON 537.6143 14 1 2
3 UCLA 476.5115 12 2 3
4 FLORIDA ST 475.3032 13 1 4

Since expanding the rankings to include the 1-AA teams, I’ve discovered a bunch of new schools I’d never heard of before that play college football. Schools like Rheinhardt, Ave Maria and Concordia. Many of these are Division II and Division III, and a lot are NAIA. Then, there’s the College of Faith. I discovered them last week while researching a sister project to the power ranking—Truing up the Stats. There are actually a couple Colleges of Faith and at least one University of Faith, but the one I’m interested in is located in Charleston and plays college football in NO DIVISION. NO RULING BODY! I guess, for the time being, COF should be able to take CFL players for their team, and from their performances, they need to.

If recent trends continue, we should see COF on Alabama’s schedule pretty soon.

As usual, I’m begging for likes, shares, recommendations, and comments. I get none of this, so I don’t know why I’m bothering to ask this, but please consider visiting http://collegefootballpowerranking.com/please-help-me-keep-this-page-going/ and help me to keep this site and the ranking going.

Thanks and enjoy the games,

Bill Ellis

WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 4?

By Bill Ellis

Okay, it’s been a while between columns. That was more out of necessity than desire. Anyway, let’s get to it!

We aren’t quite at the point of isolating the pretenders from the contenders, but we’re a hell of a lot closer. Taking a quick look at the teams, I believe maybe 50 teams still have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. Many of these teams will play each other, so I’m not saying the chances are equal for all of them. The 50 include 24 unbeatens, 25 1-loss teams, and West Virginia. l don’t think three of the unbeatens (Nebraska, Marshall and Georgia Tech) will remain so for very long.

A lot of the one-loss teams suffered pretty bad losses, but Georgia showed us in 2012 that a really bad loss early in the season does not derail a team’s chances to get a shot to play for it all. Some others (Missouri) just won’t recover from their first loss.

Who will make the playoffs? First, the SEC champion will be unless that team has 2 losses, and there are a slew of good-looking undefeateds and one-losses out there. Same for the Pac-12 Champion. If Penn State or Nebraska goes undefeated, they’ll have a very good shot of getting there. The Big 12 and the ACC champions could and should both make it if the Big 10 champion isn’t undefeated. Notre Dame, BYU, Boise State and ECU are also in the conversation.

How about two teams from the same conference? Without knowing the formula used by the playoff committee, anything is possible. Right now, I wouldn’t think it would happen unless three of the conference champions either have 2 losses, or a loss worse to either of the two teams from the stud conference that was worse than the game between the two stud teams.

In simpler terms, I could see the SEC or Pac 12 getting a second team in if Notre Dame, BYU, ECU, Penn State, and Nebraska lose and West Virginia wins the Big 12. The second team could be the team that lost in a very close conference championship game or lost to the conference champion in a tight game and still finished in the top 5.

Honestly, there are a few teams that I know almost nothing about that are surprisingly still on this list. The biggest for me is Boston College with its USC skin hanging on the wall. I don’t know why I don’t know much about them. After all, they are a southern team—playing in the ACC and everything. Anyway, they just haven’t seemed to be very good since Matt Ryan was QB, but they may be pretty good this season.

There are still way too many games to play to count any of these teams out, and a few of you fans need to calm down—especially you LSU and Georgia fans yelling to Finebaum and on your forums to fire your coaches.

So, what’s wrong with these two schools? I think a large part of it could have been the coaches and players listening to everybody tell them how great they were instead of focusing on the teams in front of them at the time, Mississippi State and South Carolina. Same can be said about Ohio State with Virginia Tech. Besides this, all three of these teams had their defensive deficiencies exposed, and there’s a lot of work that needs to be done quickly for them to make this a great year. LSU could possibly turn things around by starting Brandon Harris at QB, but Miles has always shown reluctance to pull the starting QB.

THE SEC—Alabama may be really good. Their offense is clicking, and their defense seems to be doing enough, which is strange to say since Saban’s second year. I’ll say this, if Florida had a better QB, they could have beaten Bama on Saturday. If their defense really isn’t as good as in the past, they could give up a lot of points to Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, and possibly Arkansas and LSU. Giving up a lot of points could mean two to three losses. Mississippi State could also give them problems since mobile QBs improvisations screw up Saban’s computations.

Auburn/Texas A&M—Hell of an offense, and the defense looks just like what we saw last year. Too early to get a good feel for them, but Auburn continued its incredible lucky streak in close games. If I were Bill Snyder, I’d be really old. I’d also cut the kicker and cut off the access to the dance team for the kid who tipped the ball to Auburn in the end zone.

Ole Miss may be the most complete team in the conference, but it’s too hard to judge this after games with Boise State, LA-Lafayette and Vanderbilt. This week’s game with Memphis shouldn’t tell us much, but I’d consider this a trap game since they gave UCLA a whole lot more than they expected.

LSU/Arkansas—these two have looked really bad while losing and pretty good winning. Arkansas looks like they can run the ball against anyone, but they may not be able to throw it against anyone. LSU’s linemen on both sides of the ball are getting whipped. On offense, they had a starter injured, and without him, they’re just bad. Defensively, the exodus of young talent to the NFL may have caught up with them. They were getting beat by State’s and ULM’s offensive lines which may have had two guys between them that would start at LSU. Why, because these offensive lines have guys that are physically mature (not emotionally, right Dillon Day?) who have gelled as units over the past few seasons. It’s been several years since LSU has returned three starters on the D-line. Brandon Harris looks like the perfect combination of Herb Tyler’s foot speed and Rohan Davie’s arm strength, but I’m making this judgment after watching him play three series. Miles isn’t comfortable starting him yet, but I hope he finds his comfort level soon. Besides all of this, State was LSU’s buzzsaw.

Mississippi State—State is a hell of a lot better than I thought. This being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if they don’t win another SEC West game. They could also win them all. Why the variance? The rest of the conference took notice when they beat LSU, and they won’t be sneaking up on any other team again. If they can stop the run, they could beat Arkansas and slow down Ole Miss, Auburn and Alabama a little. If they can defend the pass, they may have a chance to beat A&M, Ole Miss, Auburn and Alabama. If they can do both, they could end up playing for it all.

Dillon Day is a son of a bitch who could have seriously injured those players he stomped while they were already on the ground. To you State fans who defended him, please stop reading now and never come back to my site. There’s a hell of a difference between stomping on a player and stepping on someone while engaged in blocking. His suspension against Auburn may be enough for State to lose, but he needs to be expelled from the team.

The SEC East—I was kind of, sort of pulling for Kurt Roper to correct Florida’s offense, but it still looks bad. Charlie Weiss bad. This doesn’t mean that Florida can’t win the East, but they’ll have to play great to do it, and I don’t think it will happen. I actually believed that Florida would have a Missouri-like bounce back, but it looks more likely that Muschamp and staff will be looking for new jobs.

With Missouri losing to Indiana, you better hope they don’t win the East, because the entire SEC will suffer for it. They’ll probably be the wildcard between Georgia and South Carolina for the East title.

Around the country—How bad is Ohio State? They may not be bad at all with VA TECH being their buzzsaw. But Tech losing their next two continues to hurt the big O. The only way Ohio State factors nationally this year is in recruiting battles.

Michigan State may still be pretty good, and no one will notice, especially if they lose another game. I guess they could be a factor at the end of the season if the Big 12 and the ACC champions have two losses.

Michigan looks like they’re firing Hoke.

Pay attention to Penn State and Nebraska in case either goes undefeated, though narrowly beating McNeese State isn’t helping Nebraska.

The only thing that has really changed between the Big 12, PAC 12 and the ACC is that West Virginia may have re-emerged and Charlie Strong has found a new method for extending his honeymoon by ejecting starters from the team. And Jameis.

Jameis—How is it that you’re described as being so smart while continuing to do so many things that are so stupid? I heard somebody say on the radio that Florida State now knows that they can beat good teams without you, but that’s not what I saw. I saw Clemson choke, and I don’t think Clemson is any better than an average team this year. They could end up being pretty bad. Grow up, or go pro. As talented as you are, I’m tired of you reminding us how Florida State historically treats its stars and how you are making a mockery of this game I love.

One more thing before moving on. Washington State could have and possibly should have beaten Oregon. I don’t know if this is because Oregon is coming back to the pack or whether Mike Leach is starting to put the pieces together. Maybe a combination of the two. Either way, keep an eye on both teams plus a few others out west. No team is winning ugly right now like UCLA.

The rankings—I don’t know if Michigan is any good this season, but Utah’s whipping them in the Big House looks really good right now. This, along with Mississippi State’s, may be the most impressive wins last weekend. Also, we should tip our hat to Louisiana Tech for their impressive win over Northwestern State—check that, NW State beat LA Tech. Never mind.

Here’s a few games you may want to pay attention to this weekend: Georgia and Tennessee, one of these teams may be for real. Arkansas and Texas A&M—diametrically opposed offensively while both seem opposed to playing defense. Could Illinois upset Nebraska? I doubt it, but, if so, Pellini may get his wish to get fired. If Florida State is still dealing with internal turmoil over Jameis, they could have their hands full with NC State. USC and Oregon State should be a dandy.

Here’s the top 20:

LAST
2014 WEEK 4 POINTS RE CO RD RANK
1 OKLAHOMA 152.1238 4 0 1
2 ALABAMA 138.0787 4 0 5
3 BYU 136.4924 4 0 18
4 SOUTH CAROLINA 128.2822 3 1 2
5 MISSISSIPPI ST 126.1461 4 0 28
6 NEBRASKA 121.2539 4 0 22
7 AUBURN 117.0741 3 0 25
8 ARIZONA 115.1735 4 0 10
9 TEXAS AM 114.0721 4 0 4
10 WEST VIRGINIA 108.5067 2 2 19
11 OREGON 106.4652 4 0 13
12 UCLA 105.8189 3 0 3
13 NC STATE 105.074 4 0 35
14 EAST CAROLINA 102.2955 3 1 14
15 ARKANSAS 97.3657 3 1 48
16 PENN ST 96.878 4 0 8
17 GA TECH 88.7624 4 0 44
18 LSU 88.1676 3 1 24
19 VIRGINIA 87.4572 2 2 7
20 WASHINGTON 87.4185 4 0 6

 

Teams are still bouncing around as they find their places in the rankings. For those asking, Florida State is 21st. For the full ranking, go to the current rankings page.

If the model’s predictions are correct for this week, my top 10 should look something like this. This is contingent upon NC State beating Florida State and Washington beating Stanford.

 

LAST
2014 WEEK 5 POINTS RE CO RD RANK
1 TEXAS AM 177.3223 5 0 9
2 SOUTH CAROLINA 173.6819 4 1 4
3 NEBRASKA 166.891 5 0 6
4 NC STATE 154.004 5 0 13
5 OKLAHOMA 149.7809 4 0 1
6 AUBURN 132.1808 4 0 7
7 WASHINGTON 128.0869 5 0 20
8 ALABAMA 126.8154 4 0 2
9 PENN ST 121.4239 5 0 16
10 UCLA 120.8762 4 0 12

 

Lastly, this model and site take up a tremendous amount of time, and I can’t keep giving this stuff away for much longer. Please go to my donate page and help a man out, so he can continue doing what he loves.I’m having problems formatting the page where I’d show how each team has gotten to its current ranking, but I’ll email the information for any specific team to you if you’d like. Just leave me a comment.

Peace out,
Bill

WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 1, 2014?

WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 1 IN 2014?

By Bill Ellis

There were some outstanding games this week. Lots of close games. A lot of these were a whole lot closer than expected.

Before I get into the games, I have to get this off my chest. I don’t need games spread to every day of the week, and I didn’t need one game featuring Eastern Washington and Sam Houston State to be played a week before the rest of them. Why? For two reasons.

The first is because, it forced me to redo my power ranking model. Again, why? Because, now Eastern Washington has a win before any other team and played another game this past weekend. This required me to rework my model to show Eastern Washington as #1, 250 teams tied at #2, and Sam Houston State at #252. One of the reasons I had preseason rankings for the first time is so a win over Alabama State wouldn’t be worth as much as a win over Alabama, before historical adjustments, the opening week, but the decision to play one game earlier than all of the others makes this occur.

The second is because the winner of tonight’s game between Louisville and Miami will be in the top 10 for this week, and possibly in the top 5, and I don’t like delaying getting the weekly column out to you people.

My season-long projections were based on my original model, so you can disregard them.

Now, on to the games:
Alabama and West Virginia. Bama’s offense looked better than expected, and their defense looked really bad, for Alabama standards. To be fair, I thought they looked bad on both sides of the ball last year against VA TECH. Bama had more than twice the offense output this year, and almost double the amount of yards more than double the points scored by West Virginia than by VA TECH. What does any record while West Virginia was shockingly 4-8 with only two wins over Division 1 teams, and they were tied with William & Mary until their touchdown with 3:22 left in the 4th. If West Virginia is still a really bad team, Alabama may have some issues. One more thing to chew on—the last time I remember Saban having decisions to make about his QB was 2004 at LSU when he and Jimbo Fisher couldn’t make up their minds between Jamarcus Russell and Marcus Randall. Though the team won 9 games, it felt a lot worse than this, and the quarterback issues were the reason.

Florida State held on to beat Oklahoma State. Now, Oklahoma State was a GOOD team last year that mysteriously lost to West Virginia and seemingly choked the game against Oklahoma. Since they thumped Baylor, a win in either of these games would have put them in the national championship conversation and certainly in a BCS bowl. Anyway, despite what many Florida State fans say, I believe that losing 7 of their 9 tacklers and their defensive coordinator may have affected the team somewhat. Between this and two picks made this game a lot closer than many people thought. They’ll need to find a running game to help Winston, too.

Georgia and Clemson. Georgia may be that good. This may be the best defense Georgia has played against a decent team in recent memory. Todd Gurley is for real. On the flip side, I don’t think Clemson is that bad. Georgia has a big, physical offensive line that simply wore down Clemson’s defensive line, and I don’t think very many teams on Clemson’s schedule will be able to accomplish this. To my point, Georgia had a three point lead with 12:56 left in the game. They ran the ball their next eight plays resulting in 180 yards and three touchdowns. If Clemson can develop some depth on their defensive line, they may be able to give Florida State a run for their money.

Texas A&M and South Carolina. Looks like Johnny Manziel overshadowed Kevin Sumlin’s quarterback development and play calling which is what got him the job at A&M in the first place. A&M’s offense looks great, and their offense looks about as good as the last two years which could be a problem. South Carolina surprisingly played some pretty bad looking defense, but A&M may make every team they play look bad on defense.

Auburn has a magnificent offense, again. Their offense looked awful the entire first half, but looked fantastic the second half. On the other hand, they were playing Arkansas.

LSU and Wisconsin. LSU looked really bad on offense and pretty bad on defense for the first 60% of the game. The QBs just didn’t appear to be ready for prime time. The young studs on defense were over-running plays and falling for fakes. This isn’t all their fault because Wisconsin made some fantastic plays. Melvin Gordon may be the best running back in the nation, and he may have ended up with Gurley-like numbers if he hadn’t had a hip pointer in the second half. There was also a little luck involved with Wisconsin losing their second starter on the defensive line early in the second half, but LSU left four guys in Baton Rouge who are expected to contribute, too.

As the game appeared to be slipping away, Les Miles he’s noted for but really doesn’t do very often—because he doesn’t need it. He called for a fake punt to gain momentum and let the boys know he has confidence in them. LSU converted this and their second long pass of the game to set up a field goal. Then, the defense took over and dominated Wisconsin’s defense. Gordon may have been hurt because he didn’t play the next series, and the Badgers went 3 and out leading to LSU’s next FG. Gordon carried on 1st down for no gain after that, and it was another 3 and out that led to LSU’s TD and two point conversion. Two consecutive interceptions for Wisconsin and an LSU TD in between took care of this one.

Wisconsin may be the class of the Big 10, but they have their own QB issues and need to develop better depth on their defensive line to win the conference.

Louisville and Miami. Louisville may be really good. We know Strong continued getting pretty good talent there, and Petrino may be in the top 3, if not the best, at play calling during a game. We’ll need to see both teams against other competition before passing judgement, but they both need to take care of the ball.

A few others. Texas and Oklahoma played very weak and poorly coached North Texas and Louisiana Tech. They won these games convincingly which doesn’t reveal anything about them.

No team in the Big 10 other than Wisconsin played any team any good. Several of these games were closer than they should have been a lot later than they should have been. Rutgers win over Washington State may end up looking pretty good later.

UCLA and Washington had a lot more trouble than you’d expect with Virginia and Hawaii, but Virginia has managed to look pretty decent the first half of the season for the past two years.

THIS WEEK’S POWER RANKING

2014
WEEK 1                                                        POINTS       RECORD      LST RNK
1 TEXAS AM                                              50.2512       1 – 0                    2
2 GEORGIA                                                 45.0428      1 – 0                   2
3 FLORIDA ST                                           43.3608       1 – 0                  2
4 LSU                                                           41.16              1 – 0                   2
5 TEMPLE                                                  40.6848        1 – 0                  2
6 LOUISVILLE                                         39.9168        1 – 0                   2
7 MISSISSIPPI                                         38.9896       1 – 0                   2
8 PENN ST                                                  37.989         1 – 0                   2
9 USC                                                            37.5232      1 – 0                   2
10 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO                    35.2512       1 – 0                   2
11 TENNESSEE                                         34.43            1 – 0                    2
12 OHIO ST                                                34.1136       1 – 0                    2
13 NORTH DAKOTA STATE                33.12            1 – 0                    2
14 WESTERN KENTUCKY                    32.736        1 – 0                    2
15 CALIFORNIA                                     32.4192       1 – 0                    2
15 NOTRE DAME                                    32.4192       1 – 0                    2
17 RUTGERS                                             31.3488      1 – 0                     2
18 ALABAMA                                          30.9456      1 – 0                     2
19 AUBURN                                              30.2588      1 – 0                     2
20 BAYLOR                                              29.6516       1 – 0                     2
21 CENTRAL CONN ST                         29.64            1 – 0                     2
22 BYU                                                       29.3568       1 – 0                     2
23 OHIO                                                     29.1456       1 – 0                     2
24 TEXAS                                                  28.842          1 – 0                     2
24 UCLA                                                    28.842          1 – 0                     2

Now, I know I’ll get the usual comments about how the rankings suck because teams you’d never expect like Temple, Texas San Antonio, North Dakota State and Central Connecticut State are included. This is because your expectations need to be checked. This is also because these teams beat others that over the past four years have been much better than them.

It will also be pointed out that I suck because Alabama is ranked 18th and Florida State is ranked 3rd instead of each of them being 1st. Don’t worry about it. If your team continues to win, they’ll move on up. Check out the ranking page for the week’s entire ranking.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Strength of Schedule adjustments begin with Week 2, and these should have a significant influence on the weekly outcome from this point going forward.

THE STILL-FLAWED PROJECTIONS FOR THE END OF THE SEASON
As I explained in the Preseason Thoughts column, these projections are made by the system taking the higher ranked team in each game. This won’t be the case for a whole lot of teams this week because they either were beat by a decent opponent last week and play a much weaker team this week or they got beat and are playing a team that had a bye last week. Either way, there will appear to be some pretty big upsets this week, per my ranking. Plus, there are always unexpected upsets and blowouts. Here’s how the final 20 projects right now.

2014
WEEK 17
1 TEXAS AM                                                              576.0317                                 15 – 0
2 UCLA                                                                        518.7309                                  14 – 1
3 NOTRE DAME                                                       436.1703                                  12 – 1
4 NEBRASKA                                                            414.4147                                   13 – 1
5 OKLAHOMA                                                          413.5483                                   12 – 0
6 EASTERN MICH                                                   382.1509                                  13 – 0
7 LSU                                                                           377.7089                                 11 – 1
8 VIRGINIA TECH                                                  376.8218                                  12 – 1
9 PENN ST                                                                   363.1485                                  12 – 1
10 UTEP                                                                       356.3467                                 12 – 1
11 TCU                                                                          351.1708                                 11 – 1
12 USC                                                                          348.9925                                 10 – 2
13 IOWA                                                                      342.2715                                  11 – 1
14 TULSA                                                                    340.9235                                  11 – 1
15 MISSOURI                                                             334.3958                                 11 – 2
16 WYOMING                                                             334.2644                                 13 – 0
17 MARYLAND                                                         320.2081                                 10 – 2
18 MISSISSIPPI                                                         318.0654                                 10 – 2
19 WASHINGTON                                                     307.8462                                 12 – 2
20 OHIO ST                                                                 304.4492                                  11 – 2

One thing I’m noticing now is that Nebraska jumps Oklahoma for the fourth spot in the playoffs on the strength from playing in the conference championship game. This is as it should be. All conferences truly competing for a shot at the national championship, and the AAC, should have at least twelve members and play a championship game. As it stands right now, the Big 12 champion has a slight advantage in the health of its players by being able to spread its schedule over fifteen weeks rather than fourteen.

Keep your eye on Michigan State—Oregon, BYU—Texas, Tulsa—Oklahoma, Kansas—SE Missouri, Utah St—Idaho St, Notre Dame—Michigan, Central Michigan—Purdue, Missouri—Toledo and Iowa—Ball St.

Beginning next week, I’ll also start posting some “trued-up” team stats to let you know which teams really are good at what they’re doing.

Thanks. Now, let me know what you think.

2014 PRESEASON THOUGHTS ON WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

By Bill Ellis

 

Yep, I’m back again with this year’s version of the model, and more opinions about the games, the teams, and the coaches. This may actually be the best time of the season for all of the teams as a whole because most of the teams are still optimistic of kicking butt and taking names on their way to the first playoff.

 

For those of you reading my columns for the first time, I have developed a college power ranking model designed to show which teams have played the best against the best. Points are earned or lost for wins and losses, whether the games are home or away, and whether the margins are 17 points or greater. I don’t worry about other power rankings or polls, and my results are often different from the national polls until they catch up with my results.

 

For those of you that have read this in earlier years, this year’s model has undergone some HUGE changes from what you’ve seen in the past. This biggest change has to be the inclusion of the FCS (1-AA) teams into the rankings. Why? Several reasons. The biggest is because I needed a more accurate method of computing strength of schedule. Even with the doubling the size of the model for these teams, this system won’t be perfect since a lot of 1-AA teams play lower division teams, but it will be better than what I used in the past and a whole lot better than what the BCS used. No one knows what the playoff committee will use.

 

I’m also adding a new source of points based strictly on where a team’s opponent is ranked. The home/away and scoring margin formulas have changed to reflect the lower ranked teams. The historical adjustment in computed on a team-by-team basis rather than per conference.

 

I’ve also found it necessary to abandon my previous philosophy regarding preseason ranking after I realized that, before the historical adjustment, a win over Alabama State in week 1 would be worth as much as a win over Alabama. I couldn’t have this.

 

Since I had to re-work all of the previous years’ models to reflect these changes, the preseason ranking is also based on each team’s 4-year historical ranking, which has also been altered. This ranking is set for week 1, only, and no team’s position in the rankings is protected. They will be ranked where their earned points put them, and you can expect the rankings to vary wildly the first few weeks of the season.

 

One thing you may notice is that decent teams that lose in the first week will seemingly pull big upsets over the next two weeks. Not quite. A lot of these teams will be ranked lower than their opponents because they lost while their opponents, either 1-A or 1-AA, either won or didn’t play. So, don’t worry Wisconsin fans when your team is ranked 110th or worse after week 1. Win after that, and all will be fine.

 

Again, I strive to show which teams played the best against the best; therefore, this model is reactive rather than predictive. Nonetheless, I’ve picked winners in EVERY game by having the higher team win. Like I just wrote, this WILL NOT occur. But, I mostly to test the model. I do plan to update the predictions throughout the season, but maybe not in the first few weeks because it just takes too long.

 

The outcome of these flawed picks has USC beating South Carolina for the national championship. I really hope this doesn’t happen.

 

Here’s how the preseason top 20 looks:

1 STANFORD
2 ALABAMA
3 OREGON
4 OKLAHOMA
5 FLORIDA ST
6 SOUTH CAROLINA
7 LSU
8 NOTRE DAME
9 GEORGIA
10 BAYLOR
11 OKLAHOMA ST
12 OHIO ST
13 UCLA
14 MICH ST
15 CLEMSON
16 USC
17 TEXAS AM
18 MISSOURI
19 WISCONSIN
20 NEBRASKA

 

 

Two things I and many college football fans share is the morbid desire for upsets and losses to 1-AA teams to happen to every other team besides our favorite.  The following teams could lose in week 1 to 1-AA teams:  Iowa State to North Dakota State, South Florida to Western Carolina, Memphis to Austin Peay, Wyoming to Montana, Air Force to Nicholls State, Nevada to Southern Utah, San Diego State to Northern Arizona, Florida International to Bethune-Cookman, Charlotte (transitioning to 1-A) to Campbell, Central Michigan to Chattanooga, Eastern Michigan to Morgan State, Georgia State to Abilene Christian and New Mexico State to Cal Poly.

 

These are some other teams that need to be on upset alert, according to my ranking:  LSU to Wisconsin (hell, I hope not), Georgia to Clemson, South Carolina to Texas AM, Penn State to UCF, Purdue to Western Michigan, Louisville to Miami, Colorado to Colorado State, Washington State to Rutgers, Tulsa to Tulane, Boise State to Ole Miss, Utah State to Tennessee, Kent State to Ohio, and Louisiana Monroe to Wake Forest.

 

There are ten or so 1-AA teams that start the season in the top half of the ranking with one, North Dakota State, looking like it could be competitive with most of the 1-A teams on a weekly basis. On the other hand, the following teams need to quit wasting their fans’ time and money and quit playing ball:  UTEP, Florida International, Southern Miss, UAB, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Idaho and New Mexico State.

 

In addition, the following teams either recently transitioned or are transitioning to 1-AA, and they look like they need to go back to 1-AA:  Charlotte, UMASS, Georgia State and Appalachian State. To be fair, their strength of schedule will get better. Appalachian State is the only one that looks to have any upside.

 

Several teams have started football teams from scratch with plans to play 1-A ball and grab some of the TV money. These include Texas San Antonio, UMASS, Georgia State, Charlotte, Mercer and Kennesaw State. It’s going to be interesting to see how the recent decision about autonomy for the Big 5 affects these teams and others looking to jump to 1-A.  I’m also wondering if any of the bowl sponsors will rethink their plans since they will be officially hosting irrelevant teams.

 

Here’s how I see the top 20 looking after Week 1:

2014 PREDICTIONS
WEEK 1 POINTS RECORD LST RNK
1 FLORIDA ST 43.3608 1 0 5
2 GEORGIA 40.948 1 0 9
3 LSU 39.69 1 0 7
4 PENN ST 37.989 1 0 28
5 SOUTH CAROLINA 37.908 1 0 6
6 LOUISVILLE 36.288 1 0 29
7 USC 36.08 1 0 16
8 BOISE ST 33.285 1 0 40
9 UTAH ST 32.6304 1 0 53
10 WASHINGTON ST 29.2698 1 0 57
11 BOWLING GREEN 28.7496 1 0 58
12 OHIO ST 28.428 1 0 12
13 ALABAMA 28.244 1 0 2
14 IOWA ST 27.232 1 0 70
15 NOTRE DAME 27.016 1 0 8
16 KENT ST 26.128 1 0 79
17 UCLA 25.992 1 0 13
18 COLORADO 25.1328 1 0 90
19 AUBURN 24.9964 1 0 26
20 BAYLOR 24.4948 1 0 10

 

 

A few thoughts about the SEC:  As much as it pains me to write this, Alabama has earned its hype and deserves it until they lose on the field. LSU could be outstanding if their QBs protect the ball and their defensive line matures quickly. Ole Miss can be dangerous if it can learn how to beat a current contender. A&M and Missouri can be trouble if they start playing defense. Georgia is replacing its QB, but if that is pretty smooth and Jeremy Pruitt gets the defense to even approach its potential, they could be GREAT. South Carolina could contend for a national championship if it could play all twelve games without remembering that it’s South Carolina and not supposed to be that good. Coming off all of those injuries last season, Florida could have a Missouri-like turnaround. Did I miss any team? What? Auburn?

 

Let’s talk Auburn. I was a believer in Malzahn well before last season, and I had no idea they’d play for the national championship. I think he is either the best or second to Bobby Petrino at play-calling, and he certainly gets a lot from his offenses. Plus, he is great at adapting his offense to the talent at hand. With this being said, I think Auburn has a good season. Good like 9-3. Why, since almost everybody has them in the top 5 right now?

 

Simply, I won’t believe their defense is better until I see it against a decent team. This may not happen until week 6 when they play LSU. As great as their recruiting has been the past few years, I think they’ll have a problem replacing Dee Ford. Even if they do, I also expect the DCs in the conference to have a better grasp at slowing down their offense which will place more pressure on the defense. In other words, they could actually play a little better defense than last season, but still give up more yardage if their offense isn’t quite as good. I believe all of this because Auburn only beat one good team by 8 points or more last season—Missouri in the SEC championship.

 

I’m wondering if Tennessee can become a factor again. I’m not confident in Derek Mason continuing the success at Vanderbilt, but it would be pretty cool if he can. I don’t know why Mississippi State and Dak Prescott are getting so much love. Mississippi State’s season was incredibly ordinary, finishing 6-6 even with winning 3 of its last 4.  don’t expect Prescott to be a Heisman finalist, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mullen is fired this season.

 

A few thoughts on BAMA: Saban is still a smart guy and a liar. Besides winning most of his games, he is clearly the greatest evaluator of coaching talent I’ve ever seen. What I don’t know for sure is whether this evaluation includes the potential for the assistants to get busted and put the school on probation.

 

Anyway, you may not have heard, but Saban hired Lane Kiffin in January when Doug

Nussmeier left to become Michigan’s offensive coordinator. I have heard that Saban pushed Nussmeier out because of their performance against Auburn and Oklahoma which I don’t believe. I’ve also heard that Saban wanted to install a hurry-up offense, which I’ve never seen Kiffin run. I’ve also heard that Saban is also getting an alternative to be his hand-picked successor in case some school finally lures away Kirby Smart. What I believe is that Nussmeier was looking around, wanted the HC position with Washington, and took the Michigan gig to get out of Saban’s pressure. When this happened, Kiffin, who orchestrated the same pro-set offense, was available. Could be a smart move from an Xs-Os standpoint.

 

But Kiffin brings some intangibles. Besides being an incredible recruiter, he may be the all-time, most hated coach to ever set foot in Tennessee. Good thing Tennessee only produces a handful of really good players each year. He also has the fantastic potential to do some incredibly stupid things. This, again, is why I think Saban is so smart.

 

See, I think Saban knows Kiffin will do one or more stupid things that will eventually force Paul Bryant, Jr. to ask Saban for his head. This is when Saban will lie again and claim that he loves all of his assistants, and won’t fire any of them. Even though Bryant will back down, Saban will have somebody leak this meeting on to social media, and the following firestorm will allow Saban to resign while claiming some honor. In this fashion, Kiffin becomes Saban’s GOLDEN ANCHOR.

 

A few more thoughts: Notre Dame has a mediocre schedule despite not scheduling a 1-AA team (they, Oklahoma, Texas, USC and UCLA almost never do). Despite having a few strong opponents, they easily could end up with over half them having losing seasons. I was going to say that they could make another championship run, but their latest academic scandal puts this in doubt.

 

Sleep on Oklahoma. One thing I believe from Saban is that he and the staff treated the Sugar Bowl as a consolation game. Again. They do this, and their players take their cues from the coaching staff. They reap benefits from this in killer recruiting and having something to yell at the players about the following season. Because of this, I don’t believe Oklahoma will suddenly be great again. Their QB wasn’t great except against Alabama. Don’t bet the house on the Sooners. By the way, I sure do respect Bob Stoops for overlooking DGB’s numerous run-ins with authorities regarding drugs and violence and adding him to the team. I really, really do. Look out for Baylor and Texas Tech will be the teams to beat.

 

I don’t believe USC will regain the summit until Sark hires a real defensive staff. I think UCLA will be good again, but not great.  Stanford and Oregon should battle it out again.

 

I hope Virginia Tech or Cincinnati can upset Ohio State early this season, but I’m not counting on it. Michigan State could be legitimate again this year. Is there anything Pelini can say that could get him in trouble with his AD?

 

Thanks. Now, let me know what you think.

THE BEST COACHING STAFF EVER

I’ve taken all of the head coaches ever in the SEC (that I can remember) and put them on one staff. This list obviously may not be completely accurate because I’m limited by the information I can gather and my memory. A lot of you will not agree with many of my choices per position. Many won’t agree with ANY of my choices. Too bad. I thought of this column first. You can let me know how you feel by leaving me a comment.

HEAD COACH—The first spot is one that will surprise most of you. My pick for Head Coach is Bob Neyland. I’m about to explain, so try to relax, Alabama fans. At first, I was divided, obviously, between Bear Bryant and Saban. Then, I started comparing their records. Saban won 4 national championships and 165 games with a winning percentage of around 74% in 18 seasons. Bryant had 6 NCs, 323 wins, and a winning percentage of 78%.

Neyland won 4 NCs, 173 wins at a percentage of 83% in 21 seasons. His tenure at Tennessee was twice interrupted with recalls back to the Army, where he really was a general. At Tennessee, he had unbeaten (but tied-upon) streaks of 33, 28, 23, 19 and 14 games. The 19 game win streak included 17 shutouts and 71 scoreless quarters. In fact, 112 of his 173 wins were shutouts. No one can argue the awesomeness of this.

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR–Gus Malzhan is my pick. A lot of you are asking why not Spurrier. A few may want Urban Meyer. Again, I thought of this first.

QBs—David Cutcliffe is my QBs coach. Most of you again are wondering why not Spurrier, but Cut’s QBs were among the best in the conference every year. Other than Wuerffle, Spurrier’s QBs really weren’t that impressive. Urban Meyer is the Assistant OC.

WRs/TEs—Finally, Spurrier gets the call. Why here? Because, very few of his triggermen were ever great—Wuerffle was great in college, but he consistently pumped wide receivers into the league at Florida and continues to do so now. His best buddy, Fulmer, will help him handle the TEs.

RBs—Pat Dye edges out Emory Bellard here. Who is Emory Bellard? He invented the wishbone which ruled the game for the next 25 years or so. Go back and look at the running backs Dye pumped into the league in the ‘80s before arguing this one.

OL—Les Miles edges out Fulmer. Why? Because Miles played and coached the position, I want him on the list, and I can’t find any other coach that excels here either. If you can find others better here, I’ll accept it.

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR—Nick Saban. I guess if Bear Bryant was the head coach, Neyland could be a pretty good choice here. Other decent choices are Gene Stallings and Billy Brewer.

DL—Joe Lee Dunn. Who? Dunn was the defensive coordinator at Ole Miss under Billy Brewer and was the interim coach when Brewer was relieved of his duties after the 1993 season. Dunn, taking the helm under severe restrictions from the NCAA, lasted only one season, but NOBODY EVER DIALED UP THE BLITZES LIKE DUNN! NOBODY!

LBs—Bear Bryant. Like Miles, I think Bryant would be good here, and I’m not sure if any are better that haven’t already been listed. I’ll accept some help with this one.

DBs/Safeties—Tommy Tuberville. I’m actually not sure what position he specialized in before becoming a defensive coordinator, but Tuberville is too good of a defensive mind to leave off this list.

I’d probably have Tuberville handle the special teams, too. I’d consider Phil Fulmer as my recruiting coordinator. Hal Mumme is the GA assisting Malzhan with play calling and QB development. Now, I know Mumme is as shady as tar, but he’s too talented to exclude. Why choose Mumme? He took a horrible Kentucky team and made them exciting. He made his QB, Tim Couch, a Heisman finalist and the #1 pick in the draft despite the team only finishing 7-5. TIM COUCH? We aren’t talking about Brett Favre and Curly Hallman. Tim Couch and Hal Mumme! Who else but the architect of the spread offense. His OC at Kentucky and disciple was Mike Leach.

Bill Curry is the only choice as compliance director, and he’d have his hands full controlling Bear, Mumme and Dye.

Okay. Let me know what you think.

DOES ANY TEAM REALLY HAVE THE POWER AFTER WEEK 8? HELL YEAH!

Let’s get into it.  What a weird, wonderful and heart-wrenching weekend! Five ranked SEC teams were upset, including three that had national title aspirations. There were a few other surprises, and a few survivals.

 

WHO’S STILL GOT A SHOT? In the SEC, Alabama and Missouri are the last two standing with any shot at the national championship. These two should meet for the SEC championship, and, if the winner is undefeated, they should be in the national championship game. Missouri still has three tests on its schedule with SC, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.  Bama still has LSU.

 

In the Big 12, Texas Tech and Baylor are still undefeated, so they’re in the count for now.  Outlook isn’t too good for either. 


In the Big 10, Ohio State is hoping for upsets. Should Ohio State lose a game, a whole bunch of undefeated teams would suddenly be back in the mix.

 

Florida State is the last super strong team left. Miami is undefeated, and Virginia Tech has one loss, but both of these two would need to win out and get a ton of help. If Missouri wins the SEC, Florida State may be the team to play Oregon and end the SEC’s reign.

 

Oregon is the strongest looking team in the land, and we may get a chance to see whether they can deal with SEC defensive lines now.

 

I’ve been called out on last week’s statement that “Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky all combine to suck.”  I’m standing by it, because, up until then, they had.  I’ll give Tennessee some props.  Maybe their players are starting to buy into Jones’ philosophies, or maybe South Carolina overlooked them.  Either way, nice win!  Vanderbilt beat a team that’s simply lost too many players to injury.  I also need to give Auburn a shoutout because that’s one hell of a win over Texas A&M.  Great start for Malzhan.

 

RANDOM THOUGHTS—North Carolina showed us a text book example of snatching defeat away from the jaws of victory. Talk about swallowing the olive. They had the lead 23-17 with 5 ½ minutes to go.  They had the ball on their 49 with a 3rd & 1. Fifteen yards away from possibly going up by 9 without leaving Miami enough time to score twice, NC suddenly remembered they were NC. Two procedure penalties later, their QB gets sacked on the 3rd and 11 play. Miami gets the ball back with 5:04 left and scores in 3:55. NC actually had a chance at the end, but it was a huge longshot by then. Chokers.

 

Who mails it in and quits their team first, Clowney or Manziel?

 

How is it that Bill O’Brien is so much better as a head coach than he ever was as an assistant?

 

THE SEC WEST—It’s Bama and the rest of them. LSU could upset them and still watch them play in the Championship game. Now, some of you may ask why I’m saying this with Bama ranked 6th below.  This is because I realize that Bama still hasn’t played the meat of its schedule. The downside? As long as they’re winning, Bama will get the benefit of the doubt from the voters. Here’s the average of the top 5 BCS teams’ opponents’ rankings:

avg opp.

avg w/o

ranking

1-AA opp

Alabama

62.29

62.29

Florida St

83.17

39.8

Oregon

79.43

42.67

Ohio St

91.57

56.83

Missouri

91

51.17

 

Looks like I just disproved my own point until you consider that Alabama is the only team in this list that hasn’t already played its 1-AA opponent. Factor those rankings out and you get the right column. Even Ohio State’s 1-A opponents are better.

 

This is the third year in a row that Bama’s out of conference schedule has sucked. The least Bama can do is substitute a decent team for Georgia State occasionally. I’m not saying that Bama wasn’t the best team in the country the last two years, because they were.  I’m also not saying that they’re not the best team this year, because they could be. I’d just like to see them play better competition. I’m glad I’m not one of their season ticket holders. The last three weeks, their opponents have an average ranking of 92.333. People are rejoicing at their strength looking at last week’s game, but Arkansas is making a case for being one of the worst teams playing big boy football.

 

LSU, call the proctologist to get that red and blue boot out of your butt. (I can say this. I’m a die-hard LSU fan.)

 

THE SEC EAST—Missouri now has a two game lead, and they get SC playing its own backup QB. He does have some game experience. I wasn’t shocked that they won, but that they dominated. Vandy over Georgia surprised me. I am shocked that Tennessee upset South Carolina.

 

Two games in the conference matter this week, unless there are more upsets. Tennessee vs Alabama is suddenly interesting while Missouri vs South Carolina should decide the East.

 

THE ACC—Nothing to see here, folks, unless Florida State pulls an LSU against NC State. Here’s a test—which non-SEC team swallowed the olive last week?

 

THE BIG 12—Looks like a bunch of entertaining games this weekend, but only Oklahoma vs Texas Tech has any national implications unless Kansas upsets Baylor or injures Bryce Petty.

 

THE PAC 12—Believe it or not, but four of Oregon’s remaining five opponents are either pretty good or have a major skin in their collection, and all but Arizona have at least a chance to beat them. UCLA is the next one up. Do I think the Bruins will do it? Nah, but it could be a close game for three quarters. Besides this, USC vs Utah and Stanford vs Oregon State could both be fun to watch.

 

THE BIG 10—Do you realize that Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State have each only lost one game? Do you care? Let’s see if Penn State has any of that Michigan mojo left over for Ohio State.

 

THE RANKING—I’m glad a few of you threw a few comments my way. Nobody threw me a curve, and most of the questions were how Virginia Tech could have been ranked ahead of Alabama. I answered that a lot of that was due to how the open dates stacked up, and now those two teams have flopped spots. Now, the reason Virginia Tech is even ranked this close to Alabama is because after losing to Alabama in the opener, Virginia Tech has beaten two teams ranked ahead of them by an average of 20 spots each. This is a great way to rack up some points. On the flip side, you could lose 22 slots in the ranking by getting beat by a team ranked 55 slots below you, right LSU?

 

PTS FOR

LAST

WEEK 8 RANKING

WINS

LOSSES

RANK

1

OREGON

25.06355

7

0

1

2

MISSOURI

23.93829

7

0

3

3

FLORIDA ST

22.92141

6

0

15

4

STANFORD

21.16331

6

1

13

5

AUBURN

21.15387

6

1

20

6

ALABAMA

20.84765

7

0

5

7

VIRGINIA TECH

20.72899

6

1

4

8

NOTRE DAME

20.72593

5

1

14

9

MIAMI

20.66215

6

0

7

10

BAYLOR

19.12624

6

0

9

11

OHIO ST

18.8574

7

0

10

12

ARIZONA ST

18.61602

5

2

22

13

BYU

17.79849

5

2

19

14

TEXAS TECH

17.48781

7

0

24

15

UCLA

16.21298

5

1

8

16

MISSISSIPPI

15.62445

4

3

57

17

UCF

15.39376

5

1

31

18

TEXAS

14.18521

4

2

18

19

MICH ST

13.98005

6

1

21

20

TENNESSEE

13.46914

4

3

59

21

CLEMSON

13.21084

6

1

12

22

VANDERBILT

13.13313

4

3

69

23

WISCONSIN

12.94837

5

2

33

24

LSU

12.3986

6

2

2

25

FRESNO ST

11.52467

6

0

28

26

OREGON ST

11.26066

6

1

27

27

MICHIGAN

11.25104

6

1

37

28

OKLAHOMA

10.87401

6

1

26

29

TEXAS AM

10.32391

5

2

17

30

NORTHERN ILL

10.14848

7

0

30

31

ARIZONA

9.911221

4

2

63

32

OKLAHOMA ST

9.800879

5

1

52

33

GEORGIA

9.743207

4

3

6

34

UTAH

9.306257

4

3

11

35

PENN ST

8.993104

4

2

29

36

NEBRASKA

8.878029

5

1

32

37

WAKE FOREST

8.411011

4

3

48

38

PITTSBURGH

7.386629

4

2

39

39

SOUTH CAROLINA

7.2542

5

2

16

40

GA TECH

7.04475

4

3

62

41

BALL ST

6.581693

7

1

41

42

USC

6.414557

4

3

34

43

WASHINGTON

6.126129

4

3

25

44

LOUISVILLE

6.123829

6

1

23

45

TULANE

6.07635

5

2

42

46

MINNESOTA

5.599176

5

2

64

47

FLORIDA

5.093986

4

3

38

48

WEST VIRGINIA

4.819783

3

4

36

49

HOUSTON

4.668364

5

1

35

50

RUTGERS

4.612521

4

2

43

51

BOISE ST

4.3563

5

2

49

52

UL-LAF

4.278086

4

2

61

53

WASHINGTON ST

3.446164

4

4

47

54

IOWA

2.523879

4

3

51

55

MISSISSIPPI ST

1.380293

3

3

56

56

INDIANA

1.105919

3

4

45

57

ILLINOIS

0.919156

3

3

46

58

MARYLAND

0.854616

5

2

40

59

RICE

0.564764

5

2

58

60

TCU

0.506014

3

4

50

61

MARSHALL

0.424279

4

2

60

62

SYRACUSE

-0.84334

3

4

44

63

BUFFALO

-0.95727

5

2

65

64

UNLV

-1.25922

4

3

53

65

SAN JOSE ST

-1.39217

3

3

67

66

VIRGINIA

-2.49385

3

4

93

67

BOSTON COLLEGE

-2.62342

3

3

68

68

EAST CAROLINA

-2.88021

5

2

70

69

UTAH ST

-3.16881

4

4

73

70

COLORADO

-3.37535

3

3

72

71

NORTHWESTERN

-3.5153

4

3

54

72

TOLEDO

-3.88454

4

3

86

73

ARKANSAS

-4.41661

3

5

71

74

NORTH TEXAS

-5.17349

4

3

80

75

SMU

-5.29225

2

4

88

76

OLD DOMINION

-5.81536

4

3

74

77

DUKE

-6.00911

4

3

55

78

KENTUCKY

-6.27841

1

5

76

79

OHIO UNIV

-6.52796

5

2

83

80

KANSAS

-7.04506

2

4

79

81

COLORADO ST

-7.2008

3

4

99

82

CENTRAL MICH

-7.33766

3

5

78

83

CINCINNATI

-7.71625

5

2

94

84

CALIFORNIA

-8.0176

1

6

81

85

BOWLING GREEN

-8.26886

5

2

85

86

WESTERN KENTUCKY

-8.7474

4

3

66

87

NORTH CAROLINA

-9.05716

1

5

84

88

PURDUE

-9.20479

1

6

87

89

NC STATE

-9.77729

3

3

90

90

TROY

-9.83374

4

3

91

91

ARKANSAS ST

-11.983

3

3

96

92

NEVADA

-12.2247

3

4

95

93

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

-13.0676

2

5

97

94

TULSA

-13.32

2

4

98

95

MEMPHIS

-13.9159

1

5

77

96

ULM

-14.56

3

4

102

97

SOUTH ALABAMA

-14.5705

3

3

109

98

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO

-14.6062

2

5

100

99

MIDDLE TENN

-14.9177

3

4

103

100

NAVY

-16.1113

3

3

92

101

TEXAS ST

-16.6028

4

3

104

102

UAB

-16.7523

2

4

105

103

WYOMING

-16.85

4

3

75

104

IDAHO

-17.5338

1

6

106

105

KENT ST

-17.7194

2

6

82

106

NEW MEXICO

-18.7545

2

5

101

107

SAN DIEGO ST

-18.9259

3

3

107

108

ARMY

-20.5275

3

5

89

109

SOUTH FLORIDA

-20.7218

2

4

108

110

HAWAII

-22.0127

0

6

110

111

KANSAS ST

-22.8962

2

4

113

112

IOWA ST

-23.7016

1

4

114

113

SOUTHERN MISS

-24.2131

0

6

111

114

AKRON

-24.3319

2

6

117

115

LA TECH

-25.9305

2

5

112

116

AIR FORCE

-26.9683

1

6

116

117

EASTERN MICH

-28.0978

1

6

115

118

NEW MEXICO ST

-30.6347

0

7

118

119

UTEP

-31.2377

1

5

119

120

MIAMI (OH)

-40.1561

0

7

120

121

CONNECTICUT

-40.751

0

6

121

122

TEMPLE

-56.8033

1

6

124

123

UMASS

-59.5748

1

6

122

124

WESTERN MICH

-62.3261

0

8

123

125

FLORIDA INT

-76.277

1

5

125

126

GEORGIA STATE

-153.086

0

7

126

 

 

Leave me some more comments, and I’ll hit them out of the park.  Guys, I need some help to continue to keep on publishing.  Please consider going to the donations page and giving a little bit.  I’d really appreciate it.

 

Thanks for reading,

Bill

WHO’S GOT THE POWER HALFWAY THROUGH THE SEASON?–WEEK 7

Howdy, all.  If you haven’t seen this column before (and I’m assuming you haven’t), this is where you’ll find out which teams have played the best against the best.  I can tell you this by looking at the results of my college football power ranking model, which I’ve been designing over the past five years.  I could give you the details of how the model works, but I won’t in this column.  I’d get bored writing it, and you’d never read this again.  If you really want to find out, go to my site, https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com, and click on the “How it Works” page.  That page may not be completely up to date with the latest model, but I’ll check it soon.

Here’s the model in a nutshell:  just like with every model out there, teams earn points from wins and lose them from losses.  I factor in Home/Away, scoring margins of 17 points or greater and strength of schedule.  A couple of things that make my model different:  every team begins the season evenly ranked.  I also incorporate a historical bias adjustment based on the team’s performance over the past four seasons.  This bias affects the points earned/lost by a team’s opponents and is partly reflected in that team’s strength of schedule.  Points earned or lost vary given the relative ranking of the two teams.  One more thing—I hate 1-AA teams.  Playing them doesn’t usually give a team much in winning points, but it adversely affects its strength of schedule.  Lose to a 1-AA opponent generally leads to free fall.

My rankings won’t look like the AP or the Coaches’ Polls because mine doesn’t suck.  Those polls generally catch up to mine as the season progresses.  Also, you’ll see some teams ranked ahead of some teams that beat them like VA TECH and GEORGIA over ALABAMA and CLEMSON.  This is because these other teams have played MUCH better competition since those early games.  You’ll also see quite a bit of movement at the top of the ranking.  There was a lot from last week because so many teams either got beat or had an open date.  It’s hard to earn points when you’re not playing.

Now, before I get into the rankings for this week, here are a few thoughts.

THE SEC EAST—Like a lot of you, I was surprised to see that Missouri was undefeated heading into their game against Georgia, until I looked at their schedule.  Even though Georgia was ranked #2 entering the game, I wasn’t very surprised with the outcome.  The game may have been different if Georgia hadn’t been down to its 3rd running back and scout team wide outs.  The game would have been different if Georgia would just play some damn defense.  But, I have to give Missouri their due.  They whipped Georgia at Athens, and would be firmly in control of the East if their QB hadn’t suffered that separated shoulder.  If Missouri beats Florida and South Carolina over the next two weeks, they may still control the East.  It’s no sure thing with their finishing with Ole Miss and A&M.  I think Missouri just opened the door for South Carolina to backdoor Georgia and slip into the championship game.

Georgia—they’ve lost too much on offense, and they’ll probably lose to either Florida or Auburn in the next few weeks, if not both.  Florida could find themselves back around the top 10 if they can find a way to slow down Georgia’s offense in two weeks.  That’s easier said than done since Georgia should have Gurley back to tote the rock.  Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky all combine to suck.

THE SEC WEST—LSU may have found some defense.  They’ll need it with Ole Miss this weekend and Alabama and A&M lurking.  A&M is still dangerous, but Ole Miss seemed to study LSU’s game film last year and slowed them down, some, at first.  Most of y’all didn’t stay up to watch the whole game, but Ole Miss could have won that game.  Ole Miss won the 4th quarter 21-20, but their final series consisted of 3 incomplete passes that took 34 seconds off the clock, including the punt.  I think they should have tried running the ball to work the clock, but it may not have worked since A&M had all of their timeouts.

Arkansas shouldn’t be this bad.  Bad enough to give up 52 (FIFTY TWO) unanswered points.  Some teams like Georgia get worse due to injuries, and some like Arkansas seem to find their suck groove.  Florida vs Missouri might be a good one, and LSU vs Ole Miss could be a shoot-out.

THE BIG 12—Pundits nationwide are talking up Baylor.  Yes, they’ve won their games by an average of 63-18, but here’s another number for you.  112.  This is the average rank of their opponents.  You’re still not sure?  Arguably, their toughest opponent so far has been Louisiana-Monroe, and they aren’t playing nearly as well as they were last season when they beat Arkansas.  They have two more bad teams in the next two weeks.  After that, they could realistically lose their final five.  I don’t know that this will happen, but I will be surprised if they win more than 9.  I’m calling it.  Write it down.

How the hell did Texas beat Oklahoma?  The only thing I can figure is that Bob Stoops is worried that Texas’s next hire will beat him badly, so he did his part in helping Mack keep his job.  A lot of people between Austin and Norman think they both should go.

Texas Tech is the other undefeated team left in the Big 12, but they needed some zebra help to beat TCU.  I like Kingsbury, but their next three games could be pretty tough.  By the way, if anyone wants to know, I’ll tell you how the Big 12 is cheating the other major conferences again this season.

Texas Tech vs West Virginia could be a fun one depending on which schizo W VA team shows up.  Same with TCU vs Oklahoma State.  Like Ole Miss, TCU may be the most dangerous 3-3 team out there.

THE ACC—Hell of a game this weekend between Florida State and Clemson.  The winner will be in the thick of the national title conversation and should be as long as it’s Florida State.  I only write this because Clemson is playing two 1-AA teams this season.  But, I’m not completely sold on either of these two.  Both of these teams have that old, Spurrier-esque, shiney pants offense and defenses that don’t scare Wake Forest.  In three weeks, Miami and Virginia Tech square off.  These teams aren’t getting the pub, but their combined record is 12-1, and both of them appear to be more balanced than Clemson and Florida State.  The winners of each of these two games should meet in the ACC championship game, which could be the game they originally envisioned.   By the way, you’ll see below that Virginia Tech and Miami are ranked higher than Clemson and Florida State.

There always seems to be a lot of unforeseen upsets in the ACC every year.  I have no idea how East Carolina was able to beat North Carolina so badly and a lot worse than South Carolina and Virginia Tech beat them, but if there’s one team that could rise up this week, it’s the Tarheels.  Beware, Canes.

THE PAC 12—Right now, the Pac 12 looks like it has finally displaced the Big 12 and is taking its place as the other main power conference along with the SEC.  This may change before the season ends, and the ACC may have something to say about it.  At this time, eight of the twelve teams may really be pretty good.  I don’t believe that USC has the depth to win a lot, but eight wins is possible.  Arizona and Washington State aren’t too bad, and they may be good enough to pull a couple of upsets.  Colorado and Cal are pretty bad, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Dykes can’t right the ship at Cal after a couple of seasons.   The two marque games are Washington vs Arizona State and UCLA vs Stanford.

THE BIG 10—Nice win by Penn State.  Stanford’s loss could be HUGE for the Big 10!  If they go on to win the PAC 12, they may put a less than deserving Ohio State into the national championship game.

THE RANKING—Stanford and Georgia had started building up a nice cushion between them and the rest of the teams before their losses last week.  Almost five points.  This week, the top seven teams are all within five points.  As we get deeper into conference play, we should see less dramatic movement from week-to-week as the teams play more opponents near their own rank.  The teams are starting to find their slots.  Missouri, Utah, Texas and BYU are the big risers this week.  Oklahoma was the big loser, but they’ll get a chance to climb back up in two weeks when they play Texas Tech.

I feel the need to give a shout out to one team that should become bowl-eligible for the first time in a very long time, and that’s Tulane.  They’re 5-2, and they just whipped East Carolina who beat the hell out of North Carolina a few weeks ago.  Also, a buddy of mine here in Atlanta wants me to give a shout out to Georgia State.  I’ve got to say, the Panthers are AWFUL.  Not only are they 0-3 against 1-A opponents, they’re also 0-3 against 1-AA teams.  Georgia State is in its second year of transitioning to 1-A while Old Dominion is in its first.  Appalachian State, Charlotte and Georgia Southern are coming aboard next season.    The Sunbelt and Conference USA are gaining members but losing strength of schedule for the next few seasons.  This could be a win for the American Athletic Conference, but I doubt it.  They have as many teams ranked 100 or worse (3) as they do in the top 40.

PTS FOR

LAST

WEEK 7 RANKING

WINS

LOSSES

RANK

1

OREGON

23.63595

6

0

8

2

LSU

21.23867

6

1

14

3

MISSOURI

20.46564

6

0

21

4

VIRGINIA TECH

20.32547

6

1

10

5

ALABAMA

19.22687

6

0

4

6

GEORGIA

19.14231

4

2

2

7

MIAMI

18.90265

5

0

3

8

UCLA

18.78483

5

0

5

9

BAYLOR

17.62909

5

0

9

10

OHIO ST

17.38769

6

0

6

11

UTAH

17.33559

4

2

43

12

CLEMSON

16.66357

6

0

11

13

STANFORD

15.54044

5

1

1

14

NOTRE DAME

15.42052

4

1

12

15

FLORIDA ST

14.50098

5

0

13

16

SOUTH CAROLINA

14.45711

5

1

17

17

TEXAS AM

14.07664

5

1

22

18

TEXAS

13.96206

4

2

59

19

BYU

13.55437

4

2

36

20

AUBURN

12.91001

5

1

18

21

MICH ST

12.57977

5

1

26

22

ARIZONA ST

11.65589

4

2

19

23

LOUISVILLE

11.28704

6

0

38

24

TEXAS TECH

11.03896

6

0

23

25

WASHINGTON

10.43599

4

2

15

26

OKLAHOMA

10.06743

5

1

7

27

OREGON ST

9.794508

5

1

48

28

FRESNO ST

9.128933

5

0

25

29

PENN ST

9.085254

4

2

73

30

NORTHERN ILL

8.982916

6

0

28

31

UCF

8.90191

4

1

29

32

NEBRASKA

8.6945

5

1

33

33

WISCONSIN

8.447594

4

2

54

34

USC

8.443763

4

2

46

35

HOUSTON

8.340271

5

0

34

36

WEST VIRGINIA

7.568521

3

3

32

37

MICHIGAN

6.924423

5

1

16

38

FLORIDA

6.891494

4

2

24

39

PITTSBURGH

6.405576

3

2

27

40

MARYLAND

6.244358

5

1

39

41

BALL ST

5.973202

6

1

42

42

TULANE

5.645937

5

2

64

43

RUTGERS

4.290492

4

2

30

44

SYRACUSE

4.155316

3

3

68

45

INDIANA

4.114484

3

3

37

46

ILLINOIS

3.43832

3

2

44

47

WASHINGTON ST

3.395455

4

3

20

48

WAKE FOREST

3.281227

3

3

45

49

BOISE ST

3.063267

4

2

65

50

TCU

2.82388

3

3

53

51

IOWA

2.45699

4

2

50

52

OKLAHOMA ST

2.378484

4

1

49

53

UNLV

1.566802

4

2

52

54

NORTHWESTERN

1.439724

4

2

40

55

DUKE

1.255006

4

2

70

56

MISSISSIPPI ST

1.017578

3

3

61

57

MISSISSIPPI

0.271178

3

3

51

58

RICE

0.217837

4

2

58

59

TENNESSEE

0.173284

3

3

55

60

MARSHALL

0.088867

4

2

57

61

UL-LAF

-0.28572

3

2

56

62

GA TECH

-0.48428

3

3

41

63

ARIZONA

-0.87826

3

2

47

64

MINNESOTA

-1.36227

4

2

60

65

BUFFALO

-1.4087

4

2

62

66

WESTERN KENTUCKY

-1.87982

4

2

66

67

SAN JOSE ST

-1.94847

3

3

76

68

BOSTON COLLEGE

-2.87868

3

3

67

69

VANDERBILT

-3.29726

3

3

69

70

EAST CAROLINA

-3.46602

4

2

31

71

ARKANSAS

-4.27309

3

4

71

72

COLORADO

-4.68795

2

3

72

73

UTAH ST

-5.37659

3

4

63

74

OLD DOMINION

-5.49777

4

2

79

75

WYOMING

-5.69586

4

2

88

76

KENTUCKY

-5.98584

1

5

80

77

MEMPHIS

-6.17033

1

4

74

78

CENTRAL MICH

-6.69517

3

4

103

79

KANSAS

-6.9318

2

3

77

80

NORTH TEXAS

-6.98734

3

3

95

81

CALIFORNIA

-7.26754

1

5

82

82

KENT ST

-7.71383

2

5

81

83

OHIO UNIV

-8.12884

4

2

35

84

NORTH CAROLINA

-8.43753

1

4

87

85

BOWLING GREEN

-8.62622

5

2

83

86

TOLEDO

-8.67499

3

3

91

87

PURDUE

-9.06268

1

5

89

88

SMU

-9.09509

1

4

92

89

ARMY

-9.73553

3

4

100

90

NC STATE

-10.0423

3

3

78

91

TROY

-10.3728

4

3

96

92

NAVY

-10.5203

3

2

75

93

VIRGINIA

-10.6512

2

4

93

94

CINCINNATI

-11.4468

4

2

101

95

NEVADA

-11.9109

3

3

99

96

ARKANSAS ST

-12.3441

3

3

102

97

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

-13.1365

2

5

94

98

TULSA

-13.467

2

4

104

99

COLORADO ST

-13.901

2

4

86

100

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO

-14.7359

2

5

98

101

NEW MEXICO

-14.79

2

4

90

102

ULM

-14.8803

3

4

106

103

MIDDLE TENN

-15.2722

3

4

85

104

TEXAS ST

-17.0989

3

3

84

105

UAB

-17.252

2

4

107

106

IDAHO

-17.6008

1

6

97

107

SAN DIEGO ST

-19.3115

3

3

115

108

SOUTH FLORIDA

-21.1255

2

4

118

109

SOUTH ALABAMA

-21.581

2

3

110

110

HAWAII

-21.9589

0

6

108

111

SOUTHERN MISS

-23.1095

0

5

111

112

LA TECH

-23.141

2

4

113

113

KANSAS ST

-23.3593

2

4

112

114

IOWA ST

-23.5712

1

3

114

115

EASTERN MICH

-25.2875

1

5

105

116

AIR FORCE

-27.2302

1

6

109

117

AKRON

-27.5782

1

6

117

118

NEW MEXICO ST

-29.1672

0

6

120

119

UTEP

-31.3546

1

5

119

120

MIAMI (OH)

-31.9226

0

6

116

121

CONNECTICUT

-38.444

0

5

121

122

UMASS

-58.6301

1

5

124

123

WESTERN MICH

-61.1993

0

7

122

124

TEMPLE

-62.5671

0

6

123

125

FLORIDA INT

-76.5671

1

5

125

126

GEORGIA STATE

-149.525

0

6

126

I’ll try to get a little more humor into next week’s column.  Let me know what you think about the rankings.  Trust me, I can take it.  I’m planning on updating my projections for the end of the season starting next week.

Guys, I need some help to be able to continue with this website.  I’m just asking for $5 a head.  If twenty of you lend a hand, I may be able to get my own domain name.  If two hundred of you help, this action will begin to look feasible.  Please click on this link at the top of the page starting with https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com/please-help-me-keep-this-page-going/.  I really appreciate this.

Thanks,

Bill

WEEK 6 IS IN THE BOOKS—SO, WHO’S THE MOST POWERFUL TEAM IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL NOW?

WEEK 6 IS IN THE BOOKS–AND HERE’S WHO’S GOT THE POWER!

Howdy, all!  If you haven’t seen this column before, this is where you’ll find out which teams have played the best against the best so far this season.  How?  Through the use of the power ranking model I designed.  It’s similar to a few out there, but probably different than anything you’ve seen.  The main differences are that every team begins the season with an equal ranking and earns its rank from there.  Also, each team is assigned a historical bias based upon its play the previous four years.  This bias does not directly affect this team’s points or ranking.  It does affect the points its opponents gain or lose for playing them.  Other factors considered are home/away, margin of the game, and the team’s strength of schedule.

Before I show you the rankings, I’ve got a few thoughts to share—

MACK BROWN IS STILL EMPLOYED.   I’m not saying he shouldn’t be, and I don’t have anything against him personally, but I don’t believe gift-wrapped win from the refs over Iowa State should be the reason he’s got his job.  I heard some idiots Saturday on one of the Atlanta sports stations talking about how he should be given a little more leeway than Kiffen was.  I couldn’t disagree more.  These guys never mentioned how Texas has underachieved the last few seasons including that fantastic 6-7 season.  Nor did they mention how Kiffen inherited a probation-infested mess and was fielding a team with extreme scholarship restrictions.  Again, they were idiots.

MAYBE TEXAS SHOULD HAVE HELD ON TO GARRETT GILBERT.   Nice two point conversion here on Saturday.  http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/10/smu-makes-incredible-2-point-conversion-to-tie-rutgers/

THE SEC EAST.   Tennessee could have beaten Georgia if they had any defense.  Georgia could have won going away if they had any defense.  Don’t care too much for the smog-colored jerseys.  This doesn’t mean Tennesse may be good, but it may mean that Georgia’s defense is worse than we think.  Florida beat Arkansas like they should have.  What is Clowney’s problem at South Carolina?  He told Spurrier shortly before the game that he was hurt and wouldn’t play.  This is fine except that usually the coach is told at least a day before by one of the trainers or medical staff.  If Clowney doesn’t watch out, he could garner more trouble than he thinks.  What kind?  The kind of trouble that could cause him to slide 5 or spots in the draft.  His head coach probably knows more NFL admin types than the agent/runner whispering in his ear.  With Clowney’s absence, SC barely beat Kentucky 35-28.  This isn’t good because Kentucky is BAAAAAD.  On the other hand, Missouri may be the most unloved, undefeated team in the country.  I know I don’t hear anything about them.  This is probably due to the fact that their two strongest opponents so far are Indiana and Vanderbilt.  Two strongest, by far.  On paper, this is changing for Missouri on Saturday when they take on Georgia.  In reality, maybe not, when you consider that Georgia is now having to pull offensive skill players off its scout team to start this one.  Unfortunately for Georgia, its defense is still fully intact.  Or, more specifically, its defensive staff.  This team, more than any other, is wishing for a flu outbreak to wipe out its defensive staff.

THE SEC WEST.    LSU’s defense showed signs of life late in their blowout over Mississippi State.  This doesn’t change the fact that their defense scares me, and it scares me in a way that no defense should be scaring anyone.  They’ll get another test this week when Florida comes to Baton Rouge.  Alabama beat Georgia State just like the other four teams that played Georgia State.  Georgia State is in its second transition year moving into Division 1, and they suck.  They’ve been beaten by 3 (THREE) 1-AA teams so far this season.  We learned that Ole Miss shouldn’t spot anybody a 20-3 lead.  Arkansas and South Carolina could be pretty good, especially if Clowney is watching it from his dorm.  Ole Miss may play some defense against A&M, but it would be surprising.

THE BIG 12.   Other than Iowa State getting jobbed by the Texas Refs (and their coach getting fined for complaining about it), the other game of any real consequence was Oklahoma’s beating TCU by 3.  I don’t expect the Texas Refs to make enough calls to give Texas the game over Oklahoma.  Besides this one, we’ll see if Iowa State has enough bullets left to upset Texas Tech.  Baylor might really be good.  We won’t know until they play a team with a pulse.  Have I told you how the Big 12 is cheating the other major conferences this season?  If not, ask me.

THE BIG 10.   Michigan looked better, but this could be because Minnesota sucks.  Ohio State looked worse for the second week in a row, but they still won.  They are open next weekend which is a tougher opponent than three they’ve played.  Northwestern vs. Wisconsin and Michigan vs. Penn State are worthy of our attention.

THE ACC.    There aren’t any really good, decisive games this week unless there are unexpected upsets.  There are a few games that look entertaining this weekend like PITT at VA TECH, GA TECH at BYU and DUKE hosting NAVY, assuming the federal government closedown doesn’t prohibit the Midshipmen from traveling—lying governmental bastards.

THE PAC 12.   Three of the best games last weekend involved Pac 12 teams.  Stanford edging Washington by a ref’s nosehair may have been the best of the bunch, but Arizona State and Notre Dame was a good one.  Still impressed with what Jimmy Mora is doing at UCLA, especially since I was able to see close up what he did with the Falcons.  This weekend brings us a few more like Utah vs. Stanford, Arizona vs. USC, Washington vs. Oregon and Washington State vs. Oregon State.

THE RANKINGS.  Only one team made a pretty big jump into the top 25 this weekend, and that was Baylor moving from 39th to 8th with its shelling of West Virginia.  For the fourth week in a row, Oregon has slipped a few spots because its strength of schedule is not good.  Hell, it sucks.  Alabama slipped three spots because it played Georgia State, arguably the worst team in the history of Division 1 football.  Here’s how all 126 teams stand so far this season:

        PTS FOR       LAST
  WEEK 6     RANKING WINS   LOSSES RANK

1

STANFORD  

23.99135

5

0

2

2

GEORGIA    

23.8145

4

1

1

3

MIAMI    

18.8813

5

0

11

4

UCLA    

17.52264

4

0

10

5

OKLAHOMA  

16.76673

5

0

6

6

ALABAMA  

16.68898

5

0

3

7

OREGON    

16.3953

5

0

5

8

BAYLOR    

16.25066

4

0

39

9

VIRGINIA TECH  

15.76091

5

1

8

10

CLEMSON  

15.74915

5

0

9

11

NOTRE DAME  

15.52136

4

1

30

12

FLORIDA ST  

14.49904

5

0

17

13

LSU    

14.29681

5

1

13

14

WASHINGTON  

13.45307

4

1

4

15

MICHIGAN  

13.26506

5

0

15

16

OHIO ST    

13.24309

6

0

12

17

SOUTH CAROLINA  

13.21785

4

1

14

18

AUBURN    

12.35885

4

1

34

19

ARIZONA ST  

10.83286

3

2

7

20

WASHINGTON ST  

10.70365

4

2

18

21

MISSOURI  

10.69829

5

0

29

22

TEXAS TECH  

10.06941

5

0

19

23

RUTGERS    

9.589133

4

1

22

24

FLORIDA    

9.290971

4

1

27

25

FRESNO ST  

9.146752

5

0

23

26

MICH ST    

9.02101

4

1

51

27

TEXAS AM  

8.9438

4

1

20

28

PITTSBURGH  

8.896838

3

1

21

29

NORTHERN ILL  

8.765619

5

0

28

30

UCF    

8.673552

4

1

26

31

INDIANA    

8.006229

3

2

58

32

WEST VIRGINIA  

7.463501

3

3

16

33

NEBRASKA  

7.4074

4

1

56

34

HOUSTON  

7.188867

4

0

32

35

OHIO UNIV  

6.952552

4

1

35

36

BYU    

6.787314

3

2

49

37

EAST CAROLINA  

6.352095

4

1

40

38

LOUISVILLE  

5.880105

5

0

41

39

MARYLAND  

5.276461

4

1

25

40

NORTHWESTERN  

5.154495

4

1

33

41

GA TECH    

4.630286

3

2

31

42

WAKE FOREST  

4.396181

3

3

87

43

BALL ST    

4.170981

5

1

66

44

UTAH    

3.920981

3

2

37

45

ILLINOIS    

3.452857

3

2

24

46

ARIZONA    

2.744819

3

1

44

47

OREGON ST  

2.573048

4

1

46

48

MISSISSIPPI  

2.438705

3

2

38

49

OKLAHOMA ST  

2.316343

4

1

50

50

IOWA    

2.29679

4

2

36

51

USC    

1.900971

3

2

48

52

UNLV    

1.016876

3

2

52

53

TCU    

0.457486

2

3

53

54

WISCONSIN  

0.27739

3

2

55

55

TENNESSEE  

0.196333

3

3

54

56

UL-LAF    

-0.29271

3

2

85

57

MARSHALL  

-0.8319

3

2

76

58

RICE    

-1.00728

3

2

63

59

UTAH ST    

-1.06313

3

3

43

60

TEXAS    

-1.16474

3

2

74

61

MINNESOTA  

-1.3914

4

2

57

62

MISSISSIPPI ST  

-1.4237

2

3

59

63

BUFFALO    

-1.59662

3

2

67

64

TULANE    

-1.85939

4

2

83

65

BOISE ST    

-1.91815

3

2

60

66

WESTERN KENTUCKY

-1.97235

4

2

72

67

BOSTON COLLEGE  

-2.49025

3

2

82

68

SYRACUSE  

-2.66981

2

3

65

69

VANDERBILT  

-3.55942

3

3

62

70

DUKE    

-3.60144

3

2

73

71

COLORADO  

-3.89726

2

2

71

72

ARKANSAS  

-4.02914

3

3

70

73

MEMPHIS    

-4.17373

1

3

69

74

NAVY    

-4.94721

3

1

96

75

SAN JOSE ST  

-5.16575

2

3

91

76

KANSAS    

-5.28497

2

2

77

77

PENN ST    

-5.411

3

2

47

78

OLD DOMINION  

-5.50018

4

2

84

79

KENTUCKY  

-5.54884

1

4

80

80

KENT ST    

-5.67715

2

4

78

81

NC STATE    

-6.33631

3

2

45

82

CALIFORNIA  

-6.45537

1

4

79

83

BOWLING GREEN  

-6.63239

5

1

89

84

NORTH CAROLINA  

-6.89517

1

4

86

85

TEXAS ST    

-7.13306

3

2

42

86

MIDDLE TENN  

-7.53634

3

3

88

87

COLORADO ST  

-7.71527

2

3

90

88

WYOMING  

-8.34527

3

2

93

89

NEW MEXICO  

-8.585

2

3

98

90

PURDUE    

-8.59284

1

4

94

91

TOLEDO    

-8.95106

3

3

99

92

SMU    

-9.10558

1

4

92

93

VIRGINIA    

-9.70771

2

3

68

94

FLORIDA ATLANTIC  

-10.4613

2

4

103

95

NORTH TEXAS  

-10.4898

2

3

64

96

TROY    

-10.7881

3

3

102

97

IDAHO    

-11.3294

1

5

97

98

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO

-11.8725

2

4

81

99

NEVADA    

-11.9866

3

3

61

100

ARMY    

-12.8353

2

4

95

101

CINCINNATI  

-13.4992

3

2

75

102

ARKANSAS ST  

-15.5844

2

3

107

103

CENTRAL MICH  

-15.6086

2

4

112

104

TULSA    

-15.9689

1

4

105

105

EASTERN MICH  

-17.8461

1

4

109

106

ULM    

-18.8106

2

4

108

107

UAB    

-19.4289

1

4

100

108

HAWAII    

-20.7666

0

5

106

109

AIR FORCE  

-21.6332

1

5

110

110

SOUTH ALABAMA  

-21.7189

2

3

104

111

SOUTHERN MISS  

-23.1346

0

5

101

112

KANSAS ST  

-23.1835

2

3

115

113

LA TECH    

-23.2612

2

4

118

114

IOWA ST    

-23.9246

1

3

114

115

MIAMI (OH)  

-24.1091

0

5

111

116

SAN DIEGO ST  

-24.1484

2

3

120

117

AKRON    

-26.4814

1

5

117

118

SOUTH FLORIDA  

-26.8854

1

4

121

119

UTEP    

-26.9066

1

4

113

120

NEW MEXICO ST  

-29.3436

0

6

116

121

CONNECTICUT  

-32.5509

0

4

119

122

WESTERN MICH  

-59.589

0

6

122

123

TEMPLE    

-59.8742

0

5

124

124

UMASS    

-61.2813

0

5

123

125

FLORIDA INT  

-70.5805

1

4

125

126

GEORGIA STATE  

-144.596

0

5

126

 

If you’d like to find out more about the ranking, or how your team has reached their current ranking, please visit my site, https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com.  On this site, there is a page for each conference which has the information about each team’s ranking.  It should be up-to-date by Tuesday afternoon.  If you have any other questions, you can contact me on Twitter @CFBPOWER_RANKER.

Thanks,

Bill     

Who’s The Most Powerful Team in College Football Heading Into Week 6?

Howdy.  This is where you’ll find out which teams have played the best against the best competition to date.  But first, a few thoughts about last weekend.

If any of you looked at my post last week, you read that I thought the Ole Miss-Alabama game would be closer than the line.  Final Score BAMA 25-0.  Does this prove that I’m an idiot?  Nope.  That’s a given.  Just ask my wife.  What it does prove is that you’ve got to factor in coaching stupidity.

An example from my own experience—two weeks ago, I’m coaching my boy’s flag football team (the highest level of coaching I’m allowed by law).  Now, I’m not the regular coach, and I only had about a half hour prior to the game to install some plays.  I went with the option.  First two series, we reached the other team’s 10 by running straight away at the snap.  On both drives, my option calls helped kill the drives.  I shelved the option after that, and we lost by a touchdown.

Back to Ole Miss— On the opening drive, they had a 3rd and 2 at 30.  Two runs, 1 yard.  Now, yeah, you’d like to think your team should always be able to pick up a yard, but then again you’re playing BAMA in Tuscaloosa, and you have a chance to take an opening lead by making a 47 yd kick.

Half the game goes by with BAMA getting three field goals and a touchdown.  Then, midway through the 3rd, Ole Miss moves to BAMA’s 8.  2nd and 3.  Two incomplete passes later, BAMA has the ball.  Score should have been 16-6.  Four minutes later, Ole Miss intercepts—1st and 10 on BAMA’s 31.  Drive stalls at BAMA’s 13.  4th and 5.  False start.  On 4th and 10 from the 18, and they pass.  PASS?  I understand since they were down 16-0, and you’re 8 seconds into the 4th quarter, but, if they had kicked before, this is a no-brainer because they’d only be down 16-9.

C’mon, Hugh!  Sometimes, you’ve got to look up beyond the scoreboard and realize what’s going on in the game!  By the way, hell of a call having Treadwell throw that pass in the 1st quarter.  Damn tricky.  Who’d expect a true freshman WR to throw the ball?  Too bad it was intercepted.

Is defense dead in the SEC?  You might think so just by looking at the scores.  I could bore you with the stats, but the teams are allowing about a touchdown more than last year at this time.  Why?  A couple of reasons.  First of all, a couple of teams (LSU and ALABAMA) lost several of their players to better paying gigs in the NFL, and their young replacements aren’t quite up to the task.  Plus, a few teams (Georgia, A&M and Missouri) simply refuse to play good, solid defense no matter how good their personnel is.  And finally, the third reason is that we’re seeing a major uptick in offensive performance by most of the teams.  A&M, Georgia and Missouri are trying to hit triple digits each game, but what about LSU?  Cam Cameron has Mettenberger throwing the ball downfield to his OWN teammates!  LSU + the FORWARD PASS = CONFUSION.  I like it!  A lot!  But, then again, I went to school there.

Speaking of LSU, their game against Georgia didn’t suck too badly, did it?  Three huge SEC games so far this season, and all have been great!

This week?  Ole Miss and Auburn should be entertaining, and Arkansas and Florida could be pretty good since it’s still hard to get a handle on either team.  Think Vandy will beat Missouri again?  I don’t know how good Vandy is, but they are clearly the best team Missouri has faced so far.

Outside of the SEC—Kiffin got fired.  He probably deserved it, but I was a little surprised it happened this early.  Mack Brown didn’t, though he probably should have.  Texas also edged Iowa State 31-30 last night.  Isn’t that alone grounds for dismissal?  Oklahoma plays TCU in a game that should look better in person than on paper.  We’ll see if West Virginia really has a pulse when they play Baylor.  I think they may hold Baylor to a season low—like 63 points or something.  Ask me sometime why I think the BIG 12 is cheating the other conferences.

UCLA beat Utah last night to remain undefeated.  They may be worth a damn.  They’ve actually played a decent schedule.  Two other good ones in the PAC 12 with Arizona State looking to be the next team to beat Notre Dame while Washington and Stanford battle it out.

In the ACC, Florida State’s defense will still be watching its amazing quarterback instead of figuring out how to stop the opposing team.  One of these opponents will not self-destruct.  I don’t know if Maryland is the one.  Clemson plays Syracuse.  I love watching Clemson play, but I really want them to lose since they play two 1-AA teams this season.  I doubt Syracuse will make my dreams come true.

Ohio State will probably beat Northwestern, but it may be pretty close.  Illinois and Nebraska each only have one loss.  Do you care?  Michigan is the worst 4-0 team I’ve ever seen.  Possibly the worst ever.

THE RANKING

Last week, LSU was number one before slipping to number 2 Georgia.  Alabama has jumped ahead of Oregon for the second spot.  Arizona State and Virginia Tech jumped into the top 10 with their nice wins.  West Virginia vaulted up 78 spots from 91st to 13th with that thrashing of Oklahoma State.  Here they are:

PTS FOR LAST
WEEK 5 RANKING WINS LOSSES RANK

1

GEORGIA

22.75024

3

1

2

2

ALABAMA

17.98887

4

0

5

3

OREGON

17.19113

4

0

3

4

WASHINGTON

16.27516

4

0

7

5

STANFORD

16.12724

4

0

12

6

OKLAHOMA

15.28466

4

0

22

7

ARIZONA ST

15.15267

3

1

39

8

VIRGINIA TECH

14.91348

4

1

32

9

CLEMSON

14.81336

4

0

6

10

UCLA

13.85735

3

0

4

11

LSU

12.84092

4

1

1

12

MIAMI

12.56061

4

0

11

13

WEST VIRGINIA

12.09443

3

2

91

14

MICHIGAN

12.06817

4

0

10

15

OHIO ST

11.93309

5

0

35

16

SOUTH CAROLINA

11.21715

3

1

43

17

FLORIDA ST

9.931965

4

0

20

18

TEXAS AM

9.727355

4

1

42

19

WASHINGTON ST

9.689444

3

2

9

20

TEXAS TECH

9.624381

4

0

16

21

MISSOURI

9.042076

4

0

25

22

RUTGERS

9.034827

3

1

17

23

FRESNO ST

8.902549

4

0

21

24

ILLINOIS

8.862888

3

1

23

25

PITTSBURGH

8.470177

3

1

38

26

NORTHERN ILL

8.173895

4

0

34

27

MARYLAND

8.163579

4

0

19

28

IOWA

8.118762

4

1

60

29

HOUSTON

8.069265

4

0

37

30

FLORIDA

7.860502

3

1

26

31

UTAH

7.849304

3

1

27

32

UCF

7.726028

3

1

8

33

GA TECH

7.485159

3

1

13

34

NOTRE DAME

7.410534

3

1

14

35

EAST CAROLINA

7.080377

3

1

64

36

NORTHWESTERN

6.982387

4

0

29

37

OHIO UNIV

6.978688

3

1

30

38

MISSISSIPPI

6.649402

3

1

24

39

BAYLOR

6.518556

3

0

33

40

AUBURN

5.790963

3

1

31

41

LOUISVILLE

5.539409

4

0

36

42

TEXAS ST

5.497866

3

1

51

43

UTAH ST

4.07267

3

2

44

44

ARIZONA

3.837104

3

1

40

45

NC STATE

2.984862

3

1

48

46

OREGON ST

2.521527

4

1

79

47

PENN ST

2.13933

3

1

46

48

USC

2.037479

3

2

15

49

BYU

2.019999

2

2

65

50

OKLAHOMA ST

1.648161

3

1

18

51

TENNESSEE

1.646272

3

2

52

52

MICH ST

1.438166

3

1

49

53

WISCONSIN

1.197963

3

2

47

54

TCU

1.140959

2

2

71

55

UNLV

0.528193

3

2

59

56

NEBRASKA

0.176122

3

1

55

57

INDIANA

-0.00719

2

2

56

58

MISSISSIPPI ST

-0.36991

2

2

58

59

MINNESOTA

-0.46478

4

1

28

60

BOISE ST

-1.39901

3

2

75

61

NEVADA

-1.46565

3

2

70

62

VANDERBILT

-1.62788

3

2

81

63

BALL ST

-1.63325

4

1

96

64

SYRACUSE

-1.66905

2

2

66

65

NORTH TEXAS

-1.94458

2

2

62

66

VIRGINIA

-1.9903

2

2

54

67

BUFFALO

-2.64417

2

2

84

68

RICE

-2.80626

2

2

72

69

MEMPHIS

-2.95218

1

2

69

70

DUKE

-3.02835

3

2

89

71

KANSAS

-3.31669

2

1

73

72

MARSHALL

-3.55867

2

2

76

73

CINCINNATI

-3.59808

3

1

74

74

TULANE

-3.65348

3

2

100

75

ARKANSAS

-3.72997

3

2

61

76

COLORADO

-4.13994

2

1

45

77

KENT ST

-4.38881

2

3

88

78

OLD DOMINION

-4.49989

3

2

92

79

CALIFORNIA

-4.70807

1

3

83

80

TEXAS

-4.80461

2

2

77

81

WESTERN KENTUCKY

-4.94631

3

2

109

82

BOSTON COLLEGE

-5.01577

2

2

80

83

KENTUCKY

-5.19927

1

3

78

84

UL-LAF

-5.44809

2

2

87

85

MIDDLE TENN

-5.4963

3

2

53

86

BOWLING GREEN

-5.57554

4

1

97

87

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO

-6.18089

2

3

63

88

WAKE FOREST

-6.20684

2

3

90

89

SAN JOSE ST

-6.57448

1

3

86

90

SMU

-7.16021

1

3

85

91

NORTH CAROLINA

-7.56692

1

3

50

92

WYOMING

-7.93942

3

2

57

93

COLORADO ST

-8.11087

2

3

101

94

PURDUE

-8.25894

1

4

94

95

ARMY

-8.3954

2

3

104

96

NAVY

-9.08697

2

1

41

97

UAB

-10.1538

1

3

93

98

NEW MEXICO

-10.1758

1

3

82

99

IDAHO

-10.1987

1

4

103

100

TOLEDO

-10.3412

2

3

67

101

SOUTHERN MISS

-11.8326

0

4

99

102

TROY

-13.2048

2

3

98

103

SOUTH ALABAMA

-14.5917

2

2

108

104

TULSA

-14.6856

1

3

95

105

ARKANSAS ST

-15.0207

2

3

107

106

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

-15.2391

1

4

102

107

HAWAII

-15.5577

0

4

105

108

ULM

-15.6413

2

3

68

109

EASTERN MICH

-16.0298

1

3

114

110

AIR FORCE

-16.3152

1

4

111

111

CENTRAL MICH

-16.6874

1

4

113

112

MIAMI (OH)

-16.9077

0

4

110

113

IOWA ST

-22.1109

1

2

119

114

UTEP

-22.6213

1

3

112

115

KANSAS ST

-22.7701

2

2

117

116

NEW MEXICO ST

-23.2546

0

5

115

117

AKRON

-24.8679

1

4

106

118

LA TECH

-26.1646

1

4

116

119

CONNECTICUT

-32.1812

0

4

118

120

SAN DIEGO ST

-33.1595

1

3

121

121

SOUTH FLORIDA

-35.8917

0

4

120

122

WESTERN MICH

-55.3874

0

5

122

123

UMASS

-56.798

0

4

124

124

TEMPLE

-59.9053

0

4

123

125

FLORIDA INT

-75.5431

0

4

125

126

GEORGIA STATE

-143.252

0

4

126

If you want to see how the teams arrived at their ranking, or find out a little more about them, either visit my site, leave me a comment, or hit me up on Twitter–@CFBPOWER_RANKER.

Enjoy the games, my friends.

Thanks,

Bill

WEEK 4’S IN THE BOOKS–AND HERE’S WHO’S GOT THE POWER!

WEEK 4’s IN THE BOOKS–AND HERE’S WHO’S GOT THE POWER!

LUCK–This term is tossed around loosely by a lot of pundits, and certainly by me. I absolutely realize that there is a whole lot of hard work put in by each player on the field prior to the games. I know they practice their technique and timing, study their plays, watch film, lift tons and consult with their coaches. I also know that sometimes luck is a major factor in the outcomes of games.

One recipient of some luck coming into last week’s games was Arizona State. Their luck?  That the referees didn’t spot the ball quicker or that Wisconsin’s QB didn’t spike the ball instead of kneeling kept Wisconsin from running another play or lining up for the short, potentially game-winning field goal. This bit of luck then must have been overlooked by most bettors and line-setters, because they should have gotten beaten worse than the final margin of 14 (AZ St won the 4th quarter 21-3). One line I saw had the game set at 8.5 points.

But, the luckiest team in the land on Saturday had to be Virginia Tech. I had VA TECH coming into the game ranked 34th while Marshall was 71st. Marshall had them 21-14 from 9 minutes left in the 2nd until 3 minutes left in the 4th. They had some chances to put VA TECH away only to throw a pick, miss a kick or do something else stupid.

Following a 15 yard gain on 4th and 13, VA TECH had the ball at Marshall’s 2. Thomas sprinted right and threw a pass towards wide open Willie Byrn heading to the corner of the endzone. A woeful pass. As the pass was dropping two yards short of Byrn, a Marshall defender heading towards the sideline tipped the ball BACKWARDS AND BACK IN PLAY AND RIGHT INTO THE ARMS OF WILLIE BYRN! In the third overtime, Marshall was called on a pretty sketchy pass interference penalty (the announcers thought so as well) in the end zone that set up VA TECH’s final score. On Marshall’s final possession, they had a receiver who had his jersey pulled completely over his shoulder pad by a VA TECH defender while entering the end zone. This kept him from making a play on the pass, but the penalty wasn’t called. Congratulations, VA TECH.

The second luckiest team this week was Florida, for two reasons. The first is easy to see. They played Tennessee. The second is that, from Jeff Driskell’s season-ending injury, they may have found themselves a gamer to take the snaps in Tyler Murphy. I know he started off looking nearly as bad as Driskell, but he turned it on in the 2nd quarter with his arm and his legs. This young man may have needed the opportunity and the confidence of his coaches to start to shine. In saying this, I’m not glad that Driskell broke his leg. I feel bad for him, but Florida may have found the quarterback they’ve been seeking since Tebow left to give their offense an identity.

RANDOM THOUGHTS–NC State may be pretty good, and they could have possibly beaten Clemson if they had protected the ball.

I’m not sure how good Fresno State is because of my doubts about Boise State, but Fresno’s coach Tim DeRuyter should make some lists of those looking to can their coaches.

Saw Houston Nutt on a football roundtable. I wonder if he’s called Austin yet. I wonder if Tuberville has called Austin yet.

Just because Saban says he isn’t interested in the Texas gig doesn’t mean he’s not or at least taking the phone calls.

Heard a lot about Texas this weekend, but I didn’t hear anyone say anything about Mack keeping his job. Did the 10 point win over Kansas State buy him any time? Probably not. As bad as Texas has played, entering the game ranked 102nd, Kansas State has been worse–ranked 117th before the game.

I hate Virginia Tech’s uniforms and helmets. Not as bad as I hate Maryland’s, but there’s plenty of hate to go around.

Maybe Oregon isn’t that good since Tennessee looks awful. If David Ash has another concussion, will Texas win any more games this season?

Why is Florida kneeling on the ball with over three minutes left? They ended up punting.

USC’s game is on my radio station for the second week in a row. I live in Atlanta.

I saw the kick return, but, really, how is North Texas tied with Georgia in the 3rd quarter?

Arkansas swallowed the olive.

Mississippi State looked better against Troy, but it’s Troy, people.

Auburn may end up pretty good. I can see them splitting games with Ole Miss and Arkansas.

There’s no shame in Ohio State playing FAMU, but why were they throwing the ball so much and so late?

I was off a little with predicting that BAYLOR and ULM would be a close one.

Love him or hate him, Jeremy Hill is GOOD! He had over 150 yards rushing in the first half for LSU, and sat the entire 4th quarter after gaining 183 yards.

LSU needs to seriously tighten up that pass defense.

Charlie Weiss needs to be fired now for saying that the turnover that ended LA TECH’s chances in the loss to Kansas 13-10 was a “signature” moment. LA TECH entered the game ranked 116th with their only win coming against LAMAR.

Skip Holtz needs to be fired for giving Charlie Weiss a signature moment. (stole this from my brother)

SEC WEST–Not much to learn from this weekend except that LSU is still alive, at least for one week, for big things and that Arkansas isn’t ready for prime time. Auburn won the second half against LSU 21-14, and they played better in all phases of the game. LSU’s win over Auburn boosted them to the top spot in the rankings while Georgia is still 2nd. I hope my mother-in-law and kids cooperate and let me watch the entire game Saturday. Ole Miss and Alabama play this weekend, and I think Ole Miss can keep this one fairly close. A&M will try to hang 70 on Arkansas.

Oregon, Ohio State, Clemson and Florida State look like they have the offenses to take the crown from the SEC, but we don’t know how any of them will fare against a GREAT defense. Clemson has beaten Georgia, but Georgia’s defense isn’t GREAT.

SEC EAST–Some are disagreeing with me, but I think Florida plays better with Tyler Murphy taking the snaps. Tennessee sucks! I saw on Twitter that Missouri had a good win. Then, I saw it was over Indiana. Georgia hosting LSU is HUGE! And, it may be too close to call. Both teams can look great, and both have their demons that the other can exploit. Even if Georgia wins this game, they may not have a cakewalk the rest of the season. I think Florida and Georgia Tech may have enough bullets to put them down.

BIG 10–Even though I had Notre Dame ranked higher, I thought Michigan State would beat them.  I’m not sure if Michigan is the worst 4-0 team ever, but they are the worst 4-0 team I’ve ever seen.  Besides these two games, did anyone watch any of the other teams play?

Big 12–West Virginia may be the worst 2-2 team EVER. Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are still undefeated, but it’s hard to say if any of these teams are very good. We’ll get a better idea Saturday when Oklahoma plays Notre Dame.

PAC 12–Get off my radio, USC. I wish Utah State had won the game. Utah may be good. Maybe. Stanford is probably good, but Arizona State was over-ranked. Washington State and Stanford play, and some are looking for the upset. Washington–Arizona is an elimination game to keep an eye on. Jim Mora is showing a lot of class. He never did while coaching the Falcons.

ACC–Florida State is still scary good–at least on offense. Clemson survived a tough one against NC State, but we don’t know how good State is yet either. Maryland is undefeated and looks good so far. I’m not sure if they’ll win more than 7. GEORGIA TECH got a little bloodied coming from 13 down to win 28-20, but you can’t count them out of any game. Do you hear that, Georgia?

THE RANKINGS–Lots of open dates and weak opponents led to a reshuffling at the top. Strength of schedule also had its effect. But, a lot of teams are starting to show their strength, and they may hold on to their spots.

WEEK 4
1 LSU 15.28329 4 0 11
2 GEORGIA 15.0153 2 1 2
3 OREGON 15.0071 3 0 1
4 UCLA 13.96313 3 0 3
5 ALABAMA 12.65312 3 0 5
6 WASHINGTON 12.48753 3 0 4
7 UCF 12.07496 3 0 6
8 WASHINGTON ST 11.78033 3 1 7
9 MICHIGAN 11.31855 4 0 10
10 CLEMSON 11.31778 3 0 18
11 MIAMI 10.8561 3 0 8
12 STANFORD 10.72199 3 0 28
13 GA TECH 10.57604 3 0 21
14 NOTRE DAME 9.930067 3 0 31
15 USC 8.688601 3 1 35
16 TEXAS TECH 8.671672 4 0 25
17 RUTGERS 8.202548 3 1 58
18 OKLAHOMA ST 8.019396 3 0 13
19 MARYLAND 7.86195 4 0 43
20 FLORIDA ST 7.703966 3 0 14
21 FRESNO ST 7.536 3 0 30
22 OKLAHOMA 7.387604 3 0 15
23 ILLINOIS 7.360184 2 1 16
24 MISSISSIPPI 7.306442 3 0 17
25 MISSOURI 7.296315 3 0 51
26 FLORIDA 6.897337 2 1 56
27 UTAH 6.787759 3 1 94
28 MINNESOTA 6.441207 4 0 40
29 BUFFALO 6.368617 1 2 19
30 NORTHWESTERN 6.163465 4 0 20
31 OHIO UNIV 6.11623 3 1 23
32 BAYLOR 5.902897 3 0 48
33 AUBURN 5.873412 3 1 12
34 VIRGINIA TECH 5.853215 3 1 34
35 NORTHERN ILL 5.587426 3 0 22
36 OHIO ST 5.452843 4 0 27
37 LOUISVILLE 4.690216 4 0 29
38 HOUSTON 4.626789 3 0 55
39 PITTSBURGH 4.26501 2 1 54
40 ARIZONA ST 4.243219 2 1 24
41 ARIZONA 4.219931 3 0 33
42 NAVY 3.618537 2 0 36
43 TEXAS AM 3.337644 3 1 44
44 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.925895 2 1 42
45 UTAH ST 2.405645 2 2 26
46 COLORADO 2.260319 2 0 46
47 PENN ST 2.172676 3 1 59
48 WISCONSIN 2.150349 3 1 66
49 NC STATE 2.019329 2 1 39
50 MICH ST 0.676883 3 1 47
51 NORTH CAROLINA 0.311808 1 2 45
52 TEXAS ST 0.283475 2 1 41
53 TENNESSEE 0.153283 2 2 38
54 MIDDLE TENN 0.116065 3 1 69
55 VIRGINIA 0.050155 2 1 49
56 NEBRASKA -0.50148 3 1 57
57 INDIANA -0.69207 2 2 32
58 WYOMING -0.9358 3 1 60
59 MISSISSIPPI ST -1.13199 2 2 75
60 UNLV -2.02 2 2 61
61 IOWA -2.12836 3 1 64
62 ARKANSAS -2.14714 3 1 37
63 NORTH TEXAS -2.22238 2 2 62
64 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO -2.23692 2 2 73
65 EAST CAROLINA -2.30021 2 1 63
66 BYU -2.48351 1 2 9
67 SYRACUSE -2.6345 2 2 76
68 TOLEDO -2.80436 2 2 83
69 ULM -2.85791 2 2 53
70 MEMPHIS -2.87231 1 2 107
71 NEVADA -2.98506 2 2 80
72 TCU -3.41886 1 2 72
73 RICE -4.33371 1 2 52
74 KANSAS -4.34952 2 1 93
75 CINCINNATI -4.42623 3 1 90
76 BOISE ST -4.52936 2 2 65
77 MARSHALL -4.53384 2 2 71
78 TEXAS -4.76388 2 2 102
79 KENTUCKY -4.88828 1 2 78
80 OREGON ST -5.29923 3 1 96
81 BOSTON COLLEGE -5.49047 2 1 82
82 VANDERBILT -5.49232 2 2 87
83 NEW MEXICO -5.57059 1 2 84
84 CALIFORNIA -5.60175 1 2 81
85 SMU -5.79661 1 2 85
86 SAN JOSE ST -5.85358 1 2 67
87 UL-LAF -6.09129 2 2 101
88 KENT ST -6.13785 1 3 74
89 DUKE -6.23487 2 2 68
90 WAKE FOREST -6.48107 2 2 103
91 WEST VIRGINIA -6.81939 2 2 70
92 OLD DOMINION -7.16006 2 2 91
93 UAB -7.35563 1 2 92
94 PURDUE -8.0282 1 3 86
95 TULSA -8.23064 1 2 95
96 BALL ST -8.46515 3 1 110
97 BOWLING GREEN -8.98934 3 1 99
98 TROY -9.01247 2 2 79
99 SOUTHERN MISS -9.5121 0 3 100
100 TULANE -11.2003 2 2 97
101 COLORADO ST -11.4572 1 3 106
102 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -11.5545 1 3 77
103 IDAHO -12.3823 0 4 105
104 ARMY -13.2604 1 3 88
105 HAWAII -14.5844 0 3 104
106 AKRON -14.9807 1 3 89
107 ARKANSAS ST -15.1269 2 2 50
108 SOUTH ALABAMA -15.3822 2 1 113
109 WESTERN KENTUCKY -15.7921 2 2 114
110 MIAMI (OH) -15.8787 0 3 108
111 AIR FORCE -16.059 1 3 112
112 UTEP -16.3619 1 2 111
113 CENTRAL MICH -16.6323 1 3 109
114 EASTERN MICH -16.984 1 3 98
115 NEW MEXICO ST -17.1752 0 4 115
116 LA TECH -21.0729 1 3 116
117 KANSAS ST -23.622 2 2 117
118 CONNECTICUT -30.267 0 3 118
119 IOWA ST -32.3622 0 2 119
120 SOUTH FLORIDA -36.3895 0 3 121
121 SAN DIEGO ST -37.2205 0 3 120
122 WESTERN MICH -53.6193 0 4 122
123 TEMPLE -55.2068 0 3 123
124 UMASS -57.6808 0 4 124
125 FLORIDA INT -76.3237 0 4 125
126 GEORGIA STATE -146.086 0 4 126

As usual, I hope you enjoyed the games, this post and this week.

Let me know what you think, and keep coming back.

Thanks,

Bill

PS:  I need to thank Scott Long and Gregg Doyel for their web and Twitter mentions.  Eyeballs mean everything.  Also, due to Gregg’s mention, I will begin contributing columns to the site http://www.morethanafan.net.  Come read some columns, leave some comments and click some ads.  One more thing, don’t forget about visiting the other pages like the donate page.

Thanks again.