WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 4?

By Bill Ellis

Okay, it’s been a while between columns. That was more out of necessity than desire. Anyway, let’s get to it!

We aren’t quite at the point of isolating the pretenders from the contenders, but we’re a hell of a lot closer. Taking a quick look at the teams, I believe maybe 50 teams still have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. Many of these teams will play each other, so I’m not saying the chances are equal for all of them. The 50 include 24 unbeatens, 25 1-loss teams, and West Virginia. l don’t think three of the unbeatens (Nebraska, Marshall and Georgia Tech) will remain so for very long.

A lot of the one-loss teams suffered pretty bad losses, but Georgia showed us in 2012 that a really bad loss early in the season does not derail a team’s chances to get a shot to play for it all. Some others (Missouri) just won’t recover from their first loss.

Who will make the playoffs? First, the SEC champion will be unless that team has 2 losses, and there are a slew of good-looking undefeateds and one-losses out there. Same for the Pac-12 Champion. If Penn State or Nebraska goes undefeated, they’ll have a very good shot of getting there. The Big 12 and the ACC champions could and should both make it if the Big 10 champion isn’t undefeated. Notre Dame, BYU, Boise State and ECU are also in the conversation.

How about two teams from the same conference? Without knowing the formula used by the playoff committee, anything is possible. Right now, I wouldn’t think it would happen unless three of the conference champions either have 2 losses, or a loss worse to either of the two teams from the stud conference that was worse than the game between the two stud teams.

In simpler terms, I could see the SEC or Pac 12 getting a second team in if Notre Dame, BYU, ECU, Penn State, and Nebraska lose and West Virginia wins the Big 12. The second team could be the team that lost in a very close conference championship game or lost to the conference champion in a tight game and still finished in the top 5.

Honestly, there are a few teams that I know almost nothing about that are surprisingly still on this list. The biggest for me is Boston College with its USC skin hanging on the wall. I don’t know why I don’t know much about them. After all, they are a southern team—playing in the ACC and everything. Anyway, they just haven’t seemed to be very good since Matt Ryan was QB, but they may be pretty good this season.

There are still way too many games to play to count any of these teams out, and a few of you fans need to calm down—especially you LSU and Georgia fans yelling to Finebaum and on your forums to fire your coaches.

So, what’s wrong with these two schools? I think a large part of it could have been the coaches and players listening to everybody tell them how great they were instead of focusing on the teams in front of them at the time, Mississippi State and South Carolina. Same can be said about Ohio State with Virginia Tech. Besides this, all three of these teams had their defensive deficiencies exposed, and there’s a lot of work that needs to be done quickly for them to make this a great year. LSU could possibly turn things around by starting Brandon Harris at QB, but Miles has always shown reluctance to pull the starting QB.

THE SEC—Alabama may be really good. Their offense is clicking, and their defense seems to be doing enough, which is strange to say since Saban’s second year. I’ll say this, if Florida had a better QB, they could have beaten Bama on Saturday. If their defense really isn’t as good as in the past, they could give up a lot of points to Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, and possibly Arkansas and LSU. Giving up a lot of points could mean two to three losses. Mississippi State could also give them problems since mobile QBs improvisations screw up Saban’s computations.

Auburn/Texas A&M—Hell of an offense, and the defense looks just like what we saw last year. Too early to get a good feel for them, but Auburn continued its incredible lucky streak in close games. If I were Bill Snyder, I’d be really old. I’d also cut the kicker and cut off the access to the dance team for the kid who tipped the ball to Auburn in the end zone.

Ole Miss may be the most complete team in the conference, but it’s too hard to judge this after games with Boise State, LA-Lafayette and Vanderbilt. This week’s game with Memphis shouldn’t tell us much, but I’d consider this a trap game since they gave UCLA a whole lot more than they expected.

LSU/Arkansas—these two have looked really bad while losing and pretty good winning. Arkansas looks like they can run the ball against anyone, but they may not be able to throw it against anyone. LSU’s linemen on both sides of the ball are getting whipped. On offense, they had a starter injured, and without him, they’re just bad. Defensively, the exodus of young talent to the NFL may have caught up with them. They were getting beat by State’s and ULM’s offensive lines which may have had two guys between them that would start at LSU. Why, because these offensive lines have guys that are physically mature (not emotionally, right Dillon Day?) who have gelled as units over the past few seasons. It’s been several years since LSU has returned three starters on the D-line. Brandon Harris looks like the perfect combination of Herb Tyler’s foot speed and Rohan Davie’s arm strength, but I’m making this judgment after watching him play three series. Miles isn’t comfortable starting him yet, but I hope he finds his comfort level soon. Besides all of this, State was LSU’s buzzsaw.

Mississippi State—State is a hell of a lot better than I thought. This being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if they don’t win another SEC West game. They could also win them all. Why the variance? The rest of the conference took notice when they beat LSU, and they won’t be sneaking up on any other team again. If they can stop the run, they could beat Arkansas and slow down Ole Miss, Auburn and Alabama a little. If they can defend the pass, they may have a chance to beat A&M, Ole Miss, Auburn and Alabama. If they can do both, they could end up playing for it all.

Dillon Day is a son of a bitch who could have seriously injured those players he stomped while they were already on the ground. To you State fans who defended him, please stop reading now and never come back to my site. There’s a hell of a difference between stomping on a player and stepping on someone while engaged in blocking. His suspension against Auburn may be enough for State to lose, but he needs to be expelled from the team.

The SEC East—I was kind of, sort of pulling for Kurt Roper to correct Florida’s offense, but it still looks bad. Charlie Weiss bad. This doesn’t mean that Florida can’t win the East, but they’ll have to play great to do it, and I don’t think it will happen. I actually believed that Florida would have a Missouri-like bounce back, but it looks more likely that Muschamp and staff will be looking for new jobs.

With Missouri losing to Indiana, you better hope they don’t win the East, because the entire SEC will suffer for it. They’ll probably be the wildcard between Georgia and South Carolina for the East title.

Around the country—How bad is Ohio State? They may not be bad at all with VA TECH being their buzzsaw. But Tech losing their next two continues to hurt the big O. The only way Ohio State factors nationally this year is in recruiting battles.

Michigan State may still be pretty good, and no one will notice, especially if they lose another game. I guess they could be a factor at the end of the season if the Big 12 and the ACC champions have two losses.

Michigan looks like they’re firing Hoke.

Pay attention to Penn State and Nebraska in case either goes undefeated, though narrowly beating McNeese State isn’t helping Nebraska.

The only thing that has really changed between the Big 12, PAC 12 and the ACC is that West Virginia may have re-emerged and Charlie Strong has found a new method for extending his honeymoon by ejecting starters from the team. And Jameis.

Jameis—How is it that you’re described as being so smart while continuing to do so many things that are so stupid? I heard somebody say on the radio that Florida State now knows that they can beat good teams without you, but that’s not what I saw. I saw Clemson choke, and I don’t think Clemson is any better than an average team this year. They could end up being pretty bad. Grow up, or go pro. As talented as you are, I’m tired of you reminding us how Florida State historically treats its stars and how you are making a mockery of this game I love.

One more thing before moving on. Washington State could have and possibly should have beaten Oregon. I don’t know if this is because Oregon is coming back to the pack or whether Mike Leach is starting to put the pieces together. Maybe a combination of the two. Either way, keep an eye on both teams plus a few others out west. No team is winning ugly right now like UCLA.

The rankings—I don’t know if Michigan is any good this season, but Utah’s whipping them in the Big House looks really good right now. This, along with Mississippi State’s, may be the most impressive wins last weekend. Also, we should tip our hat to Louisiana Tech for their impressive win over Northwestern State—check that, NW State beat LA Tech. Never mind.

Here’s a few games you may want to pay attention to this weekend: Georgia and Tennessee, one of these teams may be for real. Arkansas and Texas A&M—diametrically opposed offensively while both seem opposed to playing defense. Could Illinois upset Nebraska? I doubt it, but, if so, Pellini may get his wish to get fired. If Florida State is still dealing with internal turmoil over Jameis, they could have their hands full with NC State. USC and Oregon State should be a dandy.

Here’s the top 20:

LAST
2014 WEEK 4 POINTS RE CO RD RANK
1 OKLAHOMA 152.1238 4 0 1
2 ALABAMA 138.0787 4 0 5
3 BYU 136.4924 4 0 18
4 SOUTH CAROLINA 128.2822 3 1 2
5 MISSISSIPPI ST 126.1461 4 0 28
6 NEBRASKA 121.2539 4 0 22
7 AUBURN 117.0741 3 0 25
8 ARIZONA 115.1735 4 0 10
9 TEXAS AM 114.0721 4 0 4
10 WEST VIRGINIA 108.5067 2 2 19
11 OREGON 106.4652 4 0 13
12 UCLA 105.8189 3 0 3
13 NC STATE 105.074 4 0 35
14 EAST CAROLINA 102.2955 3 1 14
15 ARKANSAS 97.3657 3 1 48
16 PENN ST 96.878 4 0 8
17 GA TECH 88.7624 4 0 44
18 LSU 88.1676 3 1 24
19 VIRGINIA 87.4572 2 2 7
20 WASHINGTON 87.4185 4 0 6

 

Teams are still bouncing around as they find their places in the rankings. For those asking, Florida State is 21st. For the full ranking, go to the current rankings page.

If the model’s predictions are correct for this week, my top 10 should look something like this. This is contingent upon NC State beating Florida State and Washington beating Stanford.

 

LAST
2014 WEEK 5 POINTS RE CO RD RANK
1 TEXAS AM 177.3223 5 0 9
2 SOUTH CAROLINA 173.6819 4 1 4
3 NEBRASKA 166.891 5 0 6
4 NC STATE 154.004 5 0 13
5 OKLAHOMA 149.7809 4 0 1
6 AUBURN 132.1808 4 0 7
7 WASHINGTON 128.0869 5 0 20
8 ALABAMA 126.8154 4 0 2
9 PENN ST 121.4239 5 0 16
10 UCLA 120.8762 4 0 12

 

Lastly, this model and site take up a tremendous amount of time, and I can’t keep giving this stuff away for much longer. Please go to my donate page and help a man out, so he can continue doing what he loves.I’m having problems formatting the page where I’d show how each team has gotten to its current ranking, but I’ll email the information for any specific team to you if you’d like. Just leave me a comment.

Peace out,
Bill

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WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 1, 2014?

WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 1 IN 2014?

By Bill Ellis

There were some outstanding games this week. Lots of close games. A lot of these were a whole lot closer than expected.

Before I get into the games, I have to get this off my chest. I don’t need games spread to every day of the week, and I didn’t need one game featuring Eastern Washington and Sam Houston State to be played a week before the rest of them. Why? For two reasons.

The first is because, it forced me to redo my power ranking model. Again, why? Because, now Eastern Washington has a win before any other team and played another game this past weekend. This required me to rework my model to show Eastern Washington as #1, 250 teams tied at #2, and Sam Houston State at #252. One of the reasons I had preseason rankings for the first time is so a win over Alabama State wouldn’t be worth as much as a win over Alabama, before historical adjustments, the opening week, but the decision to play one game earlier than all of the others makes this occur.

The second is because the winner of tonight’s game between Louisville and Miami will be in the top 10 for this week, and possibly in the top 5, and I don’t like delaying getting the weekly column out to you people.

My season-long projections were based on my original model, so you can disregard them.

Now, on to the games:
Alabama and West Virginia. Bama’s offense looked better than expected, and their defense looked really bad, for Alabama standards. To be fair, I thought they looked bad on both sides of the ball last year against VA TECH. Bama had more than twice the offense output this year, and almost double the amount of yards more than double the points scored by West Virginia than by VA TECH. What does any record while West Virginia was shockingly 4-8 with only two wins over Division 1 teams, and they were tied with William & Mary until their touchdown with 3:22 left in the 4th. If West Virginia is still a really bad team, Alabama may have some issues. One more thing to chew on—the last time I remember Saban having decisions to make about his QB was 2004 at LSU when he and Jimbo Fisher couldn’t make up their minds between Jamarcus Russell and Marcus Randall. Though the team won 9 games, it felt a lot worse than this, and the quarterback issues were the reason.

Florida State held on to beat Oklahoma State. Now, Oklahoma State was a GOOD team last year that mysteriously lost to West Virginia and seemingly choked the game against Oklahoma. Since they thumped Baylor, a win in either of these games would have put them in the national championship conversation and certainly in a BCS bowl. Anyway, despite what many Florida State fans say, I believe that losing 7 of their 9 tacklers and their defensive coordinator may have affected the team somewhat. Between this and two picks made this game a lot closer than many people thought. They’ll need to find a running game to help Winston, too.

Georgia and Clemson. Georgia may be that good. This may be the best defense Georgia has played against a decent team in recent memory. Todd Gurley is for real. On the flip side, I don’t think Clemson is that bad. Georgia has a big, physical offensive line that simply wore down Clemson’s defensive line, and I don’t think very many teams on Clemson’s schedule will be able to accomplish this. To my point, Georgia had a three point lead with 12:56 left in the game. They ran the ball their next eight plays resulting in 180 yards and three touchdowns. If Clemson can develop some depth on their defensive line, they may be able to give Florida State a run for their money.

Texas A&M and South Carolina. Looks like Johnny Manziel overshadowed Kevin Sumlin’s quarterback development and play calling which is what got him the job at A&M in the first place. A&M’s offense looks great, and their offense looks about as good as the last two years which could be a problem. South Carolina surprisingly played some pretty bad looking defense, but A&M may make every team they play look bad on defense.

Auburn has a magnificent offense, again. Their offense looked awful the entire first half, but looked fantastic the second half. On the other hand, they were playing Arkansas.

LSU and Wisconsin. LSU looked really bad on offense and pretty bad on defense for the first 60% of the game. The QBs just didn’t appear to be ready for prime time. The young studs on defense were over-running plays and falling for fakes. This isn’t all their fault because Wisconsin made some fantastic plays. Melvin Gordon may be the best running back in the nation, and he may have ended up with Gurley-like numbers if he hadn’t had a hip pointer in the second half. There was also a little luck involved with Wisconsin losing their second starter on the defensive line early in the second half, but LSU left four guys in Baton Rouge who are expected to contribute, too.

As the game appeared to be slipping away, Les Miles he’s noted for but really doesn’t do very often—because he doesn’t need it. He called for a fake punt to gain momentum and let the boys know he has confidence in them. LSU converted this and their second long pass of the game to set up a field goal. Then, the defense took over and dominated Wisconsin’s defense. Gordon may have been hurt because he didn’t play the next series, and the Badgers went 3 and out leading to LSU’s next FG. Gordon carried on 1st down for no gain after that, and it was another 3 and out that led to LSU’s TD and two point conversion. Two consecutive interceptions for Wisconsin and an LSU TD in between took care of this one.

Wisconsin may be the class of the Big 10, but they have their own QB issues and need to develop better depth on their defensive line to win the conference.

Louisville and Miami. Louisville may be really good. We know Strong continued getting pretty good talent there, and Petrino may be in the top 3, if not the best, at play calling during a game. We’ll need to see both teams against other competition before passing judgement, but they both need to take care of the ball.

A few others. Texas and Oklahoma played very weak and poorly coached North Texas and Louisiana Tech. They won these games convincingly which doesn’t reveal anything about them.

No team in the Big 10 other than Wisconsin played any team any good. Several of these games were closer than they should have been a lot later than they should have been. Rutgers win over Washington State may end up looking pretty good later.

UCLA and Washington had a lot more trouble than you’d expect with Virginia and Hawaii, but Virginia has managed to look pretty decent the first half of the season for the past two years.

THIS WEEK’S POWER RANKING

2014
WEEK 1                                                        POINTS       RECORD      LST RNK
1 TEXAS AM                                              50.2512       1 – 0                    2
2 GEORGIA                                                 45.0428      1 – 0                   2
3 FLORIDA ST                                           43.3608       1 – 0                  2
4 LSU                                                           41.16              1 – 0                   2
5 TEMPLE                                                  40.6848        1 – 0                  2
6 LOUISVILLE                                         39.9168        1 – 0                   2
7 MISSISSIPPI                                         38.9896       1 – 0                   2
8 PENN ST                                                  37.989         1 – 0                   2
9 USC                                                            37.5232      1 – 0                   2
10 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO                    35.2512       1 – 0                   2
11 TENNESSEE                                         34.43            1 – 0                    2
12 OHIO ST                                                34.1136       1 – 0                    2
13 NORTH DAKOTA STATE                33.12            1 – 0                    2
14 WESTERN KENTUCKY                    32.736        1 – 0                    2
15 CALIFORNIA                                     32.4192       1 – 0                    2
15 NOTRE DAME                                    32.4192       1 – 0                    2
17 RUTGERS                                             31.3488      1 – 0                     2
18 ALABAMA                                          30.9456      1 – 0                     2
19 AUBURN                                              30.2588      1 – 0                     2
20 BAYLOR                                              29.6516       1 – 0                     2
21 CENTRAL CONN ST                         29.64            1 – 0                     2
22 BYU                                                       29.3568       1 – 0                     2
23 OHIO                                                     29.1456       1 – 0                     2
24 TEXAS                                                  28.842          1 – 0                     2
24 UCLA                                                    28.842          1 – 0                     2

Now, I know I’ll get the usual comments about how the rankings suck because teams you’d never expect like Temple, Texas San Antonio, North Dakota State and Central Connecticut State are included. This is because your expectations need to be checked. This is also because these teams beat others that over the past four years have been much better than them.

It will also be pointed out that I suck because Alabama is ranked 18th and Florida State is ranked 3rd instead of each of them being 1st. Don’t worry about it. If your team continues to win, they’ll move on up. Check out the ranking page for the week’s entire ranking.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Strength of Schedule adjustments begin with Week 2, and these should have a significant influence on the weekly outcome from this point going forward.

THE STILL-FLAWED PROJECTIONS FOR THE END OF THE SEASON
As I explained in the Preseason Thoughts column, these projections are made by the system taking the higher ranked team in each game. This won’t be the case for a whole lot of teams this week because they either were beat by a decent opponent last week and play a much weaker team this week or they got beat and are playing a team that had a bye last week. Either way, there will appear to be some pretty big upsets this week, per my ranking. Plus, there are always unexpected upsets and blowouts. Here’s how the final 20 projects right now.

2014
WEEK 17
1 TEXAS AM                                                              576.0317                                 15 – 0
2 UCLA                                                                        518.7309                                  14 – 1
3 NOTRE DAME                                                       436.1703                                  12 – 1
4 NEBRASKA                                                            414.4147                                   13 – 1
5 OKLAHOMA                                                          413.5483                                   12 – 0
6 EASTERN MICH                                                   382.1509                                  13 – 0
7 LSU                                                                           377.7089                                 11 – 1
8 VIRGINIA TECH                                                  376.8218                                  12 – 1
9 PENN ST                                                                   363.1485                                  12 – 1
10 UTEP                                                                       356.3467                                 12 – 1
11 TCU                                                                          351.1708                                 11 – 1
12 USC                                                                          348.9925                                 10 – 2
13 IOWA                                                                      342.2715                                  11 – 1
14 TULSA                                                                    340.9235                                  11 – 1
15 MISSOURI                                                             334.3958                                 11 – 2
16 WYOMING                                                             334.2644                                 13 – 0
17 MARYLAND                                                         320.2081                                 10 – 2
18 MISSISSIPPI                                                         318.0654                                 10 – 2
19 WASHINGTON                                                     307.8462                                 12 – 2
20 OHIO ST                                                                 304.4492                                  11 – 2

One thing I’m noticing now is that Nebraska jumps Oklahoma for the fourth spot in the playoffs on the strength from playing in the conference championship game. This is as it should be. All conferences truly competing for a shot at the national championship, and the AAC, should have at least twelve members and play a championship game. As it stands right now, the Big 12 champion has a slight advantage in the health of its players by being able to spread its schedule over fifteen weeks rather than fourteen.

Keep your eye on Michigan State—Oregon, BYU—Texas, Tulsa—Oklahoma, Kansas—SE Missouri, Utah St—Idaho St, Notre Dame—Michigan, Central Michigan—Purdue, Missouri—Toledo and Iowa—Ball St.

Beginning next week, I’ll also start posting some “trued-up” team stats to let you know which teams really are good at what they’re doing.

Thanks. Now, let me know what you think.