WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 5? PLUS, I’VE GOT A PLAN!

WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AFTER WEEK 5? PLUS, I’VE GOT A PLAN!

By Bill Ellis

I have a plan to strengthen college football schedules across the board that could begin next season.

How? We’ll hit them in the wallet. That’s right, in the wallet. If you are paying an opponent, amend the contract to read that their payment will be reduced 10% for every lower division team on their schedule. For a little more fun, add an additional amount like 1% penalty for every one of their opponents that is playing a lower division team. Now, what about conference opponents? Hit them, too. Make them sacrifice 10% of their TV money back into the pool to be redistributed to the other conference members.

The downside of this plan could be the end of spotless 12-0 regular seasons. The upside is a much better barometer for measuring teams. I’ll sacrifice the style points for something more substantial.

RULE CHANGES RANT—I’ve got to get this off my chest. I hate that some calls are reviewable and others aren’t. I understand holding on the offensive line shouldn’t be because games would never end, but many others should be.

One area I want reviewed which should only take 10 seconds is on fights. If the player flagged is retaliating, let’s get a penalty on the original transgressor, too. Let’s also pick up those dead ball actions of jerks like Dillon Day.

One semi-rules rant is that with all of the millions and billions being spent to televise every game (Henderson State and SE Oklahoma was on in Atlanta last Thursday) why can’t the networks add a few more cameras to the stadiums? Would the game be damaged if colleges had at least as many angles as the NFL? Let’s start with four angles at every touchdown marker.

This past week—I said this was how I thought this week’s top five would look

2014 WEEK 5 POINTS RE CO RD   LAST RANK
1 TEXAS AM 177.3223 5 0   9
2 SOUTH CAROLINA 173.6819 4 1   4
3 NEBRASKA 166.891 5 0   6
4 NC STATE 154.004 5 0   13
5 OKLAHOMA 149.7809 4 0   1

 

These picks were contingent on Florida State losing to NC State and Stanford losing to Washington. Neither of these happened, but both games were a whole lot closer than most thought. In addition, Missouri bounced back from its loss to Indiana to beat South Carolina. Missouri is probably out of the national championship picture, but they can still win the SEC EAST, so, theoretically, they can still have a huge impact by potentially taking the SEC out of the playoffs by winning the SEC.

The question I’m hearing a lot right now is which teams REALLY look like championship material? It’s still hard to say especially with three of the teams near the top of eveybody’s rankings—Oklahoma, Alabama and Oregon—all having open dates last week. There were some great games last week with many teams getting scares, but the only teams that may have been eliminated that were realistically eliminated were Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Penn State and NC State.

There are a slew of games this week that should help define the course of the season, but the loser of these will not be fully eliminated yet: LSU—Auburn, if LSU wins; Alabama—Ole Miss; Mississippi State—Texas A&M; Nebraska—Michigan State, if Michigan State wins; Ohio State—Maryland; TCU—Oklahoma; Baylor—Texas, if Texas wins; Georgia Tech—Miami, if Miami wins; UCLA—Utah, if Utah wins; Notre Dame—Stanford and BYU—Utah State.

My list of the teams I believe can still win the national championship is now down to 24 with 16 unbeatens. These are: Texas A&M, Nebraska, Florida State, Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, BYU, Notre Dame, Oregon, Alabama, Arizona, Baylor, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, USC, Maryland, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Stanford and LSU. I also believe there are approximately 10 other 1- and 2-loss teams that can still have a dramatic effect on which teams are ultimately selected.

The relevant teams that rose the most in the rankings were Missouri 40 spots to #5, USC 41 spots to #13, Georgia 48 spots to #16, Baylor 30 spots to #17, and Stanford 70 spots to #26. Northwestern and Air Force earned their mentions by rising 110 and 88 spots to be ranked 40th and 51st, respectively.

Several teams lost more than 50 spots, but these were either MAC or 1-AA teams.

Here’s how the top 30 looks this week:

LAST
2014 WEEK 5 POINTS RE CO RD RANK
1 TEXAS AM 167.8447 5 0 9
2 NEBRASKA 166.4176 5 0 6
3 FLORIDA ST 145.029 4 0 21
4 SOUTH CAROLINA 139.2996 3 2 4
5 MISSOURI 137.7107 4 1 45
6 OKLAHOMA 132.5183 4 0 1
7 AUBURN 132.1808 4 0 7
8 UCLA 129.3366 4 0 12
9 BYU 126.0742 4 0 3
10 NOTRE DAME 121.2546 4 0 23
11 OREGON 120.4639 4 0 11
12 ALABAMA 118.033 4 0 2
13 USC 110.5579 3 1 54
14 ARIZONA 110.1425 4 0 8
15 MARYLAND 109.9883 4 1 22
16 GEORGIA 107.7768 3 1 64
17 BAYLOR 102.3782 4 0 47
18 ARKANSAS 100.8348 3 2 15
19 NC STATE 100.3271 4 1 13
20 MIAMI 98.59408 3 2 33
21 MISSISSIPPI 98.312 4 0 24
22 OKLAHOMA ST 97.26068 3 1 31
23 LOUISVILLE 96.842 4 1 37
24 MISSISSIPPI ST 96.55832 4 0 5
25 ILLINOIS 95.77176 3 2 36
26 STANFORD 93.985 3 1 96
27 LSU 90.6228 4 1 18
28 EAST CAROLINA 90.37456 3 1 14
29 IOWA 89.37116 4 1 26
30 MINNESOTA 88.78176 4 1 50

The first questions that would jump out at me would be why is South Carolina still ranked #4 and ahead of Missouri who just beat them and why is Alabama out of the top 10 when they were #2 last week?

Here’s why–South Carolina had a GREAT week strength-of-schedule wise. Great enough that they ended up with about ten more points than they had last week. It helps that they haven’t played their 1-AA opponent yet and haven’t had their open date. These two things will catch up with them. If Missouri had played a stronger schedule, they’d be ranked ahead of South Carolina. Alabama and Oregon were hurt by their open weeks, and their strength of schedule isn’t helping very much. Oklahoma’s SOS was actually negative. Mississippi State fell for the same reasons.

This is how the final four finish according to my projections now. A&M beats Oregon for the national title. If A&M wins its next three games, the other polls should have them #1, too, no matter what any other team does.

 

LAST
2014 WEEK 17 POINTS RECORD RANK
1 TEXAS AM 602.8932 15 0 1
2 OREGON 537.6143 14 1 2
3 UCLA 476.5115 12 2 3
4 FLORIDA ST 475.3032 13 1 4

Since expanding the rankings to include the 1-AA teams, I’ve discovered a bunch of new schools I’d never heard of before that play college football. Schools like Rheinhardt, Ave Maria and Concordia. Many of these are Division II and Division III, and a lot are NAIA. Then, there’s the College of Faith. I discovered them last week while researching a sister project to the power ranking—Truing up the Stats. There are actually a couple Colleges of Faith and at least one University of Faith, but the one I’m interested in is located in Charleston and plays college football in NO DIVISION. NO RULING BODY! I guess, for the time being, COF should be able to take CFL players for their team, and from their performances, they need to.

If recent trends continue, we should see COF on Alabama’s schedule pretty soon.

As usual, I’m begging for likes, shares, recommendations, and comments. I get none of this, so I don’t know why I’m bothering to ask this, but please consider visiting http://collegefootballpowerranking.com/please-help-me-keep-this-page-going/ and help me to keep this site and the ranking going.

Thanks and enjoy the games,

Bill Ellis

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2014 PRESEASON THOUGHTS ON WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

By Bill Ellis

 

Yep, I’m back again with this year’s version of the model, and more opinions about the games, the teams, and the coaches. This may actually be the best time of the season for all of the teams as a whole because most of the teams are still optimistic of kicking butt and taking names on their way to the first playoff.

 

For those of you reading my columns for the first time, I have developed a college power ranking model designed to show which teams have played the best against the best. Points are earned or lost for wins and losses, whether the games are home or away, and whether the margins are 17 points or greater. I don’t worry about other power rankings or polls, and my results are often different from the national polls until they catch up with my results.

 

For those of you that have read this in earlier years, this year’s model has undergone some HUGE changes from what you’ve seen in the past. This biggest change has to be the inclusion of the FCS (1-AA) teams into the rankings. Why? Several reasons. The biggest is because I needed a more accurate method of computing strength of schedule. Even with the doubling the size of the model for these teams, this system won’t be perfect since a lot of 1-AA teams play lower division teams, but it will be better than what I used in the past and a whole lot better than what the BCS used. No one knows what the playoff committee will use.

 

I’m also adding a new source of points based strictly on where a team’s opponent is ranked. The home/away and scoring margin formulas have changed to reflect the lower ranked teams. The historical adjustment in computed on a team-by-team basis rather than per conference.

 

I’ve also found it necessary to abandon my previous philosophy regarding preseason ranking after I realized that, before the historical adjustment, a win over Alabama State in week 1 would be worth as much as a win over Alabama. I couldn’t have this.

 

Since I had to re-work all of the previous years’ models to reflect these changes, the preseason ranking is also based on each team’s 4-year historical ranking, which has also been altered. This ranking is set for week 1, only, and no team’s position in the rankings is protected. They will be ranked where their earned points put them, and you can expect the rankings to vary wildly the first few weeks of the season.

 

One thing you may notice is that decent teams that lose in the first week will seemingly pull big upsets over the next two weeks. Not quite. A lot of these teams will be ranked lower than their opponents because they lost while their opponents, either 1-A or 1-AA, either won or didn’t play. So, don’t worry Wisconsin fans when your team is ranked 110th or worse after week 1. Win after that, and all will be fine.

 

Again, I strive to show which teams played the best against the best; therefore, this model is reactive rather than predictive. Nonetheless, I’ve picked winners in EVERY game by having the higher team win. Like I just wrote, this WILL NOT occur. But, I mostly to test the model. I do plan to update the predictions throughout the season, but maybe not in the first few weeks because it just takes too long.

 

The outcome of these flawed picks has USC beating South Carolina for the national championship. I really hope this doesn’t happen.

 

Here’s how the preseason top 20 looks:

1 STANFORD
2 ALABAMA
3 OREGON
4 OKLAHOMA
5 FLORIDA ST
6 SOUTH CAROLINA
7 LSU
8 NOTRE DAME
9 GEORGIA
10 BAYLOR
11 OKLAHOMA ST
12 OHIO ST
13 UCLA
14 MICH ST
15 CLEMSON
16 USC
17 TEXAS AM
18 MISSOURI
19 WISCONSIN
20 NEBRASKA

 

 

Two things I and many college football fans share is the morbid desire for upsets and losses to 1-AA teams to happen to every other team besides our favorite.  The following teams could lose in week 1 to 1-AA teams:  Iowa State to North Dakota State, South Florida to Western Carolina, Memphis to Austin Peay, Wyoming to Montana, Air Force to Nicholls State, Nevada to Southern Utah, San Diego State to Northern Arizona, Florida International to Bethune-Cookman, Charlotte (transitioning to 1-A) to Campbell, Central Michigan to Chattanooga, Eastern Michigan to Morgan State, Georgia State to Abilene Christian and New Mexico State to Cal Poly.

 

These are some other teams that need to be on upset alert, according to my ranking:  LSU to Wisconsin (hell, I hope not), Georgia to Clemson, South Carolina to Texas AM, Penn State to UCF, Purdue to Western Michigan, Louisville to Miami, Colorado to Colorado State, Washington State to Rutgers, Tulsa to Tulane, Boise State to Ole Miss, Utah State to Tennessee, Kent State to Ohio, and Louisiana Monroe to Wake Forest.

 

There are ten or so 1-AA teams that start the season in the top half of the ranking with one, North Dakota State, looking like it could be competitive with most of the 1-A teams on a weekly basis. On the other hand, the following teams need to quit wasting their fans’ time and money and quit playing ball:  UTEP, Florida International, Southern Miss, UAB, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Idaho and New Mexico State.

 

In addition, the following teams either recently transitioned or are transitioning to 1-AA, and they look like they need to go back to 1-AA:  Charlotte, UMASS, Georgia State and Appalachian State. To be fair, their strength of schedule will get better. Appalachian State is the only one that looks to have any upside.

 

Several teams have started football teams from scratch with plans to play 1-A ball and grab some of the TV money. These include Texas San Antonio, UMASS, Georgia State, Charlotte, Mercer and Kennesaw State. It’s going to be interesting to see how the recent decision about autonomy for the Big 5 affects these teams and others looking to jump to 1-A.  I’m also wondering if any of the bowl sponsors will rethink their plans since they will be officially hosting irrelevant teams.

 

Here’s how I see the top 20 looking after Week 1:

2014 PREDICTIONS
WEEK 1 POINTS RECORD LST RNK
1 FLORIDA ST 43.3608 1 0 5
2 GEORGIA 40.948 1 0 9
3 LSU 39.69 1 0 7
4 PENN ST 37.989 1 0 28
5 SOUTH CAROLINA 37.908 1 0 6
6 LOUISVILLE 36.288 1 0 29
7 USC 36.08 1 0 16
8 BOISE ST 33.285 1 0 40
9 UTAH ST 32.6304 1 0 53
10 WASHINGTON ST 29.2698 1 0 57
11 BOWLING GREEN 28.7496 1 0 58
12 OHIO ST 28.428 1 0 12
13 ALABAMA 28.244 1 0 2
14 IOWA ST 27.232 1 0 70
15 NOTRE DAME 27.016 1 0 8
16 KENT ST 26.128 1 0 79
17 UCLA 25.992 1 0 13
18 COLORADO 25.1328 1 0 90
19 AUBURN 24.9964 1 0 26
20 BAYLOR 24.4948 1 0 10

 

 

A few thoughts about the SEC:  As much as it pains me to write this, Alabama has earned its hype and deserves it until they lose on the field. LSU could be outstanding if their QBs protect the ball and their defensive line matures quickly. Ole Miss can be dangerous if it can learn how to beat a current contender. A&M and Missouri can be trouble if they start playing defense. Georgia is replacing its QB, but if that is pretty smooth and Jeremy Pruitt gets the defense to even approach its potential, they could be GREAT. South Carolina could contend for a national championship if it could play all twelve games without remembering that it’s South Carolina and not supposed to be that good. Coming off all of those injuries last season, Florida could have a Missouri-like turnaround. Did I miss any team? What? Auburn?

 

Let’s talk Auburn. I was a believer in Malzahn well before last season, and I had no idea they’d play for the national championship. I think he is either the best or second to Bobby Petrino at play-calling, and he certainly gets a lot from his offenses. Plus, he is great at adapting his offense to the talent at hand. With this being said, I think Auburn has a good season. Good like 9-3. Why, since almost everybody has them in the top 5 right now?

 

Simply, I won’t believe their defense is better until I see it against a decent team. This may not happen until week 6 when they play LSU. As great as their recruiting has been the past few years, I think they’ll have a problem replacing Dee Ford. Even if they do, I also expect the DCs in the conference to have a better grasp at slowing down their offense which will place more pressure on the defense. In other words, they could actually play a little better defense than last season, but still give up more yardage if their offense isn’t quite as good. I believe all of this because Auburn only beat one good team by 8 points or more last season—Missouri in the SEC championship.

 

I’m wondering if Tennessee can become a factor again. I’m not confident in Derek Mason continuing the success at Vanderbilt, but it would be pretty cool if he can. I don’t know why Mississippi State and Dak Prescott are getting so much love. Mississippi State’s season was incredibly ordinary, finishing 6-6 even with winning 3 of its last 4.  don’t expect Prescott to be a Heisman finalist, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mullen is fired this season.

 

A few thoughts on BAMA: Saban is still a smart guy and a liar. Besides winning most of his games, he is clearly the greatest evaluator of coaching talent I’ve ever seen. What I don’t know for sure is whether this evaluation includes the potential for the assistants to get busted and put the school on probation.

 

Anyway, you may not have heard, but Saban hired Lane Kiffin in January when Doug

Nussmeier left to become Michigan’s offensive coordinator. I have heard that Saban pushed Nussmeier out because of their performance against Auburn and Oklahoma which I don’t believe. I’ve also heard that Saban wanted to install a hurry-up offense, which I’ve never seen Kiffin run. I’ve also heard that Saban is also getting an alternative to be his hand-picked successor in case some school finally lures away Kirby Smart. What I believe is that Nussmeier was looking around, wanted the HC position with Washington, and took the Michigan gig to get out of Saban’s pressure. When this happened, Kiffin, who orchestrated the same pro-set offense, was available. Could be a smart move from an Xs-Os standpoint.

 

But Kiffin brings some intangibles. Besides being an incredible recruiter, he may be the all-time, most hated coach to ever set foot in Tennessee. Good thing Tennessee only produces a handful of really good players each year. He also has the fantastic potential to do some incredibly stupid things. This, again, is why I think Saban is so smart.

 

See, I think Saban knows Kiffin will do one or more stupid things that will eventually force Paul Bryant, Jr. to ask Saban for his head. This is when Saban will lie again and claim that he loves all of his assistants, and won’t fire any of them. Even though Bryant will back down, Saban will have somebody leak this meeting on to social media, and the following firestorm will allow Saban to resign while claiming some honor. In this fashion, Kiffin becomes Saban’s GOLDEN ANCHOR.

 

A few more thoughts: Notre Dame has a mediocre schedule despite not scheduling a 1-AA team (they, Oklahoma, Texas, USC and UCLA almost never do). Despite having a few strong opponents, they easily could end up with over half them having losing seasons. I was going to say that they could make another championship run, but their latest academic scandal puts this in doubt.

 

Sleep on Oklahoma. One thing I believe from Saban is that he and the staff treated the Sugar Bowl as a consolation game. Again. They do this, and their players take their cues from the coaching staff. They reap benefits from this in killer recruiting and having something to yell at the players about the following season. Because of this, I don’t believe Oklahoma will suddenly be great again. Their QB wasn’t great except against Alabama. Don’t bet the house on the Sooners. By the way, I sure do respect Bob Stoops for overlooking DGB’s numerous run-ins with authorities regarding drugs and violence and adding him to the team. I really, really do. Look out for Baylor and Texas Tech will be the teams to beat.

 

I don’t believe USC will regain the summit until Sark hires a real defensive staff. I think UCLA will be good again, but not great.  Stanford and Oregon should battle it out again.

 

I hope Virginia Tech or Cincinnati can upset Ohio State early this season, but I’m not counting on it. Michigan State could be legitimate again this year. Is there anything Pelini can say that could get him in trouble with his AD?

 

Thanks. Now, let me know what you think.

WHO’S GOT THE POWER HALFWAY THROUGH THE SEASON?–WEEK 7

Howdy, all.  If you haven’t seen this column before (and I’m assuming you haven’t), this is where you’ll find out which teams have played the best against the best.  I can tell you this by looking at the results of my college football power ranking model, which I’ve been designing over the past five years.  I could give you the details of how the model works, but I won’t in this column.  I’d get bored writing it, and you’d never read this again.  If you really want to find out, go to my site, https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com, and click on the “How it Works” page.  That page may not be completely up to date with the latest model, but I’ll check it soon.

Here’s the model in a nutshell:  just like with every model out there, teams earn points from wins and lose them from losses.  I factor in Home/Away, scoring margins of 17 points or greater and strength of schedule.  A couple of things that make my model different:  every team begins the season evenly ranked.  I also incorporate a historical bias adjustment based on the team’s performance over the past four seasons.  This bias affects the points earned/lost by a team’s opponents and is partly reflected in that team’s strength of schedule.  Points earned or lost vary given the relative ranking of the two teams.  One more thing—I hate 1-AA teams.  Playing them doesn’t usually give a team much in winning points, but it adversely affects its strength of schedule.  Lose to a 1-AA opponent generally leads to free fall.

My rankings won’t look like the AP or the Coaches’ Polls because mine doesn’t suck.  Those polls generally catch up to mine as the season progresses.  Also, you’ll see some teams ranked ahead of some teams that beat them like VA TECH and GEORGIA over ALABAMA and CLEMSON.  This is because these other teams have played MUCH better competition since those early games.  You’ll also see quite a bit of movement at the top of the ranking.  There was a lot from last week because so many teams either got beat or had an open date.  It’s hard to earn points when you’re not playing.

Now, before I get into the rankings for this week, here are a few thoughts.

THE SEC EAST—Like a lot of you, I was surprised to see that Missouri was undefeated heading into their game against Georgia, until I looked at their schedule.  Even though Georgia was ranked #2 entering the game, I wasn’t very surprised with the outcome.  The game may have been different if Georgia hadn’t been down to its 3rd running back and scout team wide outs.  The game would have been different if Georgia would just play some damn defense.  But, I have to give Missouri their due.  They whipped Georgia at Athens, and would be firmly in control of the East if their QB hadn’t suffered that separated shoulder.  If Missouri beats Florida and South Carolina over the next two weeks, they may still control the East.  It’s no sure thing with their finishing with Ole Miss and A&M.  I think Missouri just opened the door for South Carolina to backdoor Georgia and slip into the championship game.

Georgia—they’ve lost too much on offense, and they’ll probably lose to either Florida or Auburn in the next few weeks, if not both.  Florida could find themselves back around the top 10 if they can find a way to slow down Georgia’s offense in two weeks.  That’s easier said than done since Georgia should have Gurley back to tote the rock.  Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky all combine to suck.

THE SEC WEST—LSU may have found some defense.  They’ll need it with Ole Miss this weekend and Alabama and A&M lurking.  A&M is still dangerous, but Ole Miss seemed to study LSU’s game film last year and slowed them down, some, at first.  Most of y’all didn’t stay up to watch the whole game, but Ole Miss could have won that game.  Ole Miss won the 4th quarter 21-20, but their final series consisted of 3 incomplete passes that took 34 seconds off the clock, including the punt.  I think they should have tried running the ball to work the clock, but it may not have worked since A&M had all of their timeouts.

Arkansas shouldn’t be this bad.  Bad enough to give up 52 (FIFTY TWO) unanswered points.  Some teams like Georgia get worse due to injuries, and some like Arkansas seem to find their suck groove.  Florida vs Missouri might be a good one, and LSU vs Ole Miss could be a shoot-out.

THE BIG 12—Pundits nationwide are talking up Baylor.  Yes, they’ve won their games by an average of 63-18, but here’s another number for you.  112.  This is the average rank of their opponents.  You’re still not sure?  Arguably, their toughest opponent so far has been Louisiana-Monroe, and they aren’t playing nearly as well as they were last season when they beat Arkansas.  They have two more bad teams in the next two weeks.  After that, they could realistically lose their final five.  I don’t know that this will happen, but I will be surprised if they win more than 9.  I’m calling it.  Write it down.

How the hell did Texas beat Oklahoma?  The only thing I can figure is that Bob Stoops is worried that Texas’s next hire will beat him badly, so he did his part in helping Mack keep his job.  A lot of people between Austin and Norman think they both should go.

Texas Tech is the other undefeated team left in the Big 12, but they needed some zebra help to beat TCU.  I like Kingsbury, but their next three games could be pretty tough.  By the way, if anyone wants to know, I’ll tell you how the Big 12 is cheating the other major conferences again this season.

Texas Tech vs West Virginia could be a fun one depending on which schizo W VA team shows up.  Same with TCU vs Oklahoma State.  Like Ole Miss, TCU may be the most dangerous 3-3 team out there.

THE ACC—Hell of a game this weekend between Florida State and Clemson.  The winner will be in the thick of the national title conversation and should be as long as it’s Florida State.  I only write this because Clemson is playing two 1-AA teams this season.  But, I’m not completely sold on either of these two.  Both of these teams have that old, Spurrier-esque, shiney pants offense and defenses that don’t scare Wake Forest.  In three weeks, Miami and Virginia Tech square off.  These teams aren’t getting the pub, but their combined record is 12-1, and both of them appear to be more balanced than Clemson and Florida State.  The winners of each of these two games should meet in the ACC championship game, which could be the game they originally envisioned.   By the way, you’ll see below that Virginia Tech and Miami are ranked higher than Clemson and Florida State.

There always seems to be a lot of unforeseen upsets in the ACC every year.  I have no idea how East Carolina was able to beat North Carolina so badly and a lot worse than South Carolina and Virginia Tech beat them, but if there’s one team that could rise up this week, it’s the Tarheels.  Beware, Canes.

THE PAC 12—Right now, the Pac 12 looks like it has finally displaced the Big 12 and is taking its place as the other main power conference along with the SEC.  This may change before the season ends, and the ACC may have something to say about it.  At this time, eight of the twelve teams may really be pretty good.  I don’t believe that USC has the depth to win a lot, but eight wins is possible.  Arizona and Washington State aren’t too bad, and they may be good enough to pull a couple of upsets.  Colorado and Cal are pretty bad, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Dykes can’t right the ship at Cal after a couple of seasons.   The two marque games are Washington vs Arizona State and UCLA vs Stanford.

THE BIG 10—Nice win by Penn State.  Stanford’s loss could be HUGE for the Big 10!  If they go on to win the PAC 12, they may put a less than deserving Ohio State into the national championship game.

THE RANKING—Stanford and Georgia had started building up a nice cushion between them and the rest of the teams before their losses last week.  Almost five points.  This week, the top seven teams are all within five points.  As we get deeper into conference play, we should see less dramatic movement from week-to-week as the teams play more opponents near their own rank.  The teams are starting to find their slots.  Missouri, Utah, Texas and BYU are the big risers this week.  Oklahoma was the big loser, but they’ll get a chance to climb back up in two weeks when they play Texas Tech.

I feel the need to give a shout out to one team that should become bowl-eligible for the first time in a very long time, and that’s Tulane.  They’re 5-2, and they just whipped East Carolina who beat the hell out of North Carolina a few weeks ago.  Also, a buddy of mine here in Atlanta wants me to give a shout out to Georgia State.  I’ve got to say, the Panthers are AWFUL.  Not only are they 0-3 against 1-A opponents, they’re also 0-3 against 1-AA teams.  Georgia State is in its second year of transitioning to 1-A while Old Dominion is in its first.  Appalachian State, Charlotte and Georgia Southern are coming aboard next season.    The Sunbelt and Conference USA are gaining members but losing strength of schedule for the next few seasons.  This could be a win for the American Athletic Conference, but I doubt it.  They have as many teams ranked 100 or worse (3) as they do in the top 40.

PTS FOR

LAST

WEEK 7 RANKING

WINS

LOSSES

RANK

1

OREGON

23.63595

6

0

8

2

LSU

21.23867

6

1

14

3

MISSOURI

20.46564

6

0

21

4

VIRGINIA TECH

20.32547

6

1

10

5

ALABAMA

19.22687

6

0

4

6

GEORGIA

19.14231

4

2

2

7

MIAMI

18.90265

5

0

3

8

UCLA

18.78483

5

0

5

9

BAYLOR

17.62909

5

0

9

10

OHIO ST

17.38769

6

0

6

11

UTAH

17.33559

4

2

43

12

CLEMSON

16.66357

6

0

11

13

STANFORD

15.54044

5

1

1

14

NOTRE DAME

15.42052

4

1

12

15

FLORIDA ST

14.50098

5

0

13

16

SOUTH CAROLINA

14.45711

5

1

17

17

TEXAS AM

14.07664

5

1

22

18

TEXAS

13.96206

4

2

59

19

BYU

13.55437

4

2

36

20

AUBURN

12.91001

5

1

18

21

MICH ST

12.57977

5

1

26

22

ARIZONA ST

11.65589

4

2

19

23

LOUISVILLE

11.28704

6

0

38

24

TEXAS TECH

11.03896

6

0

23

25

WASHINGTON

10.43599

4

2

15

26

OKLAHOMA

10.06743

5

1

7

27

OREGON ST

9.794508

5

1

48

28

FRESNO ST

9.128933

5

0

25

29

PENN ST

9.085254

4

2

73

30

NORTHERN ILL

8.982916

6

0

28

31

UCF

8.90191

4

1

29

32

NEBRASKA

8.6945

5

1

33

33

WISCONSIN

8.447594

4

2

54

34

USC

8.443763

4

2

46

35

HOUSTON

8.340271

5

0

34

36

WEST VIRGINIA

7.568521

3

3

32

37

MICHIGAN

6.924423

5

1

16

38

FLORIDA

6.891494

4

2

24

39

PITTSBURGH

6.405576

3

2

27

40

MARYLAND

6.244358

5

1

39

41

BALL ST

5.973202

6

1

42

42

TULANE

5.645937

5

2

64

43

RUTGERS

4.290492

4

2

30

44

SYRACUSE

4.155316

3

3

68

45

INDIANA

4.114484

3

3

37

46

ILLINOIS

3.43832

3

2

44

47

WASHINGTON ST

3.395455

4

3

20

48

WAKE FOREST

3.281227

3

3

45

49

BOISE ST

3.063267

4

2

65

50

TCU

2.82388

3

3

53

51

IOWA

2.45699

4

2

50

52

OKLAHOMA ST

2.378484

4

1

49

53

UNLV

1.566802

4

2

52

54

NORTHWESTERN

1.439724

4

2

40

55

DUKE

1.255006

4

2

70

56

MISSISSIPPI ST

1.017578

3

3

61

57

MISSISSIPPI

0.271178

3

3

51

58

RICE

0.217837

4

2

58

59

TENNESSEE

0.173284

3

3

55

60

MARSHALL

0.088867

4

2

57

61

UL-LAF

-0.28572

3

2

56

62

GA TECH

-0.48428

3

3

41

63

ARIZONA

-0.87826

3

2

47

64

MINNESOTA

-1.36227

4

2

60

65

BUFFALO

-1.4087

4

2

62

66

WESTERN KENTUCKY

-1.87982

4

2

66

67

SAN JOSE ST

-1.94847

3

3

76

68

BOSTON COLLEGE

-2.87868

3

3

67

69

VANDERBILT

-3.29726

3

3

69

70

EAST CAROLINA

-3.46602

4

2

31

71

ARKANSAS

-4.27309

3

4

71

72

COLORADO

-4.68795

2

3

72

73

UTAH ST

-5.37659

3

4

63

74

OLD DOMINION

-5.49777

4

2

79

75

WYOMING

-5.69586

4

2

88

76

KENTUCKY

-5.98584

1

5

80

77

MEMPHIS

-6.17033

1

4

74

78

CENTRAL MICH

-6.69517

3

4

103

79

KANSAS

-6.9318

2

3

77

80

NORTH TEXAS

-6.98734

3

3

95

81

CALIFORNIA

-7.26754

1

5

82

82

KENT ST

-7.71383

2

5

81

83

OHIO UNIV

-8.12884

4

2

35

84

NORTH CAROLINA

-8.43753

1

4

87

85

BOWLING GREEN

-8.62622

5

2

83

86

TOLEDO

-8.67499

3

3

91

87

PURDUE

-9.06268

1

5

89

88

SMU

-9.09509

1

4

92

89

ARMY

-9.73553

3

4

100

90

NC STATE

-10.0423

3

3

78

91

TROY

-10.3728

4

3

96

92

NAVY

-10.5203

3

2

75

93

VIRGINIA

-10.6512

2

4

93

94

CINCINNATI

-11.4468

4

2

101

95

NEVADA

-11.9109

3

3

99

96

ARKANSAS ST

-12.3441

3

3

102

97

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

-13.1365

2

5

94

98

TULSA

-13.467

2

4

104

99

COLORADO ST

-13.901

2

4

86

100

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO

-14.7359

2

5

98

101

NEW MEXICO

-14.79

2

4

90

102

ULM

-14.8803

3

4

106

103

MIDDLE TENN

-15.2722

3

4

85

104

TEXAS ST

-17.0989

3

3

84

105

UAB

-17.252

2

4

107

106

IDAHO

-17.6008

1

6

97

107

SAN DIEGO ST

-19.3115

3

3

115

108

SOUTH FLORIDA

-21.1255

2

4

118

109

SOUTH ALABAMA

-21.581

2

3

110

110

HAWAII

-21.9589

0

6

108

111

SOUTHERN MISS

-23.1095

0

5

111

112

LA TECH

-23.141

2

4

113

113

KANSAS ST

-23.3593

2

4

112

114

IOWA ST

-23.5712

1

3

114

115

EASTERN MICH

-25.2875

1

5

105

116

AIR FORCE

-27.2302

1

6

109

117

AKRON

-27.5782

1

6

117

118

NEW MEXICO ST

-29.1672

0

6

120

119

UTEP

-31.3546

1

5

119

120

MIAMI (OH)

-31.9226

0

6

116

121

CONNECTICUT

-38.444

0

5

121

122

UMASS

-58.6301

1

5

124

123

WESTERN MICH

-61.1993

0

7

122

124

TEMPLE

-62.5671

0

6

123

125

FLORIDA INT

-76.5671

1

5

125

126

GEORGIA STATE

-149.525

0

6

126

I’ll try to get a little more humor into next week’s column.  Let me know what you think about the rankings.  Trust me, I can take it.  I’m planning on updating my projections for the end of the season starting next week.

Guys, I need some help to be able to continue with this website.  I’m just asking for $5 a head.  If twenty of you lend a hand, I may be able to get my own domain name.  If two hundred of you help, this action will begin to look feasible.  Please click on this link at the top of the page starting with https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com/please-help-me-keep-this-page-going/.  I really appreciate this.

Thanks,

Bill

WEEK 4’S IN THE BOOKS–AND HERE’S WHO’S GOT THE POWER!

WEEK 4’s IN THE BOOKS–AND HERE’S WHO’S GOT THE POWER!

LUCK–This term is tossed around loosely by a lot of pundits, and certainly by me. I absolutely realize that there is a whole lot of hard work put in by each player on the field prior to the games. I know they practice their technique and timing, study their plays, watch film, lift tons and consult with their coaches. I also know that sometimes luck is a major factor in the outcomes of games.

One recipient of some luck coming into last week’s games was Arizona State. Their luck?  That the referees didn’t spot the ball quicker or that Wisconsin’s QB didn’t spike the ball instead of kneeling kept Wisconsin from running another play or lining up for the short, potentially game-winning field goal. This bit of luck then must have been overlooked by most bettors and line-setters, because they should have gotten beaten worse than the final margin of 14 (AZ St won the 4th quarter 21-3). One line I saw had the game set at 8.5 points.

But, the luckiest team in the land on Saturday had to be Virginia Tech. I had VA TECH coming into the game ranked 34th while Marshall was 71st. Marshall had them 21-14 from 9 minutes left in the 2nd until 3 minutes left in the 4th. They had some chances to put VA TECH away only to throw a pick, miss a kick or do something else stupid.

Following a 15 yard gain on 4th and 13, VA TECH had the ball at Marshall’s 2. Thomas sprinted right and threw a pass towards wide open Willie Byrn heading to the corner of the endzone. A woeful pass. As the pass was dropping two yards short of Byrn, a Marshall defender heading towards the sideline tipped the ball BACKWARDS AND BACK IN PLAY AND RIGHT INTO THE ARMS OF WILLIE BYRN! In the third overtime, Marshall was called on a pretty sketchy pass interference penalty (the announcers thought so as well) in the end zone that set up VA TECH’s final score. On Marshall’s final possession, they had a receiver who had his jersey pulled completely over his shoulder pad by a VA TECH defender while entering the end zone. This kept him from making a play on the pass, but the penalty wasn’t called. Congratulations, VA TECH.

The second luckiest team this week was Florida, for two reasons. The first is easy to see. They played Tennessee. The second is that, from Jeff Driskell’s season-ending injury, they may have found themselves a gamer to take the snaps in Tyler Murphy. I know he started off looking nearly as bad as Driskell, but he turned it on in the 2nd quarter with his arm and his legs. This young man may have needed the opportunity and the confidence of his coaches to start to shine. In saying this, I’m not glad that Driskell broke his leg. I feel bad for him, but Florida may have found the quarterback they’ve been seeking since Tebow left to give their offense an identity.

RANDOM THOUGHTS–NC State may be pretty good, and they could have possibly beaten Clemson if they had protected the ball.

I’m not sure how good Fresno State is because of my doubts about Boise State, but Fresno’s coach Tim DeRuyter should make some lists of those looking to can their coaches.

Saw Houston Nutt on a football roundtable. I wonder if he’s called Austin yet. I wonder if Tuberville has called Austin yet.

Just because Saban says he isn’t interested in the Texas gig doesn’t mean he’s not or at least taking the phone calls.

Heard a lot about Texas this weekend, but I didn’t hear anyone say anything about Mack keeping his job. Did the 10 point win over Kansas State buy him any time? Probably not. As bad as Texas has played, entering the game ranked 102nd, Kansas State has been worse–ranked 117th before the game.

I hate Virginia Tech’s uniforms and helmets. Not as bad as I hate Maryland’s, but there’s plenty of hate to go around.

Maybe Oregon isn’t that good since Tennessee looks awful. If David Ash has another concussion, will Texas win any more games this season?

Why is Florida kneeling on the ball with over three minutes left? They ended up punting.

USC’s game is on my radio station for the second week in a row. I live in Atlanta.

I saw the kick return, but, really, how is North Texas tied with Georgia in the 3rd quarter?

Arkansas swallowed the olive.

Mississippi State looked better against Troy, but it’s Troy, people.

Auburn may end up pretty good. I can see them splitting games with Ole Miss and Arkansas.

There’s no shame in Ohio State playing FAMU, but why were they throwing the ball so much and so late?

I was off a little with predicting that BAYLOR and ULM would be a close one.

Love him or hate him, Jeremy Hill is GOOD! He had over 150 yards rushing in the first half for LSU, and sat the entire 4th quarter after gaining 183 yards.

LSU needs to seriously tighten up that pass defense.

Charlie Weiss needs to be fired now for saying that the turnover that ended LA TECH’s chances in the loss to Kansas 13-10 was a “signature” moment. LA TECH entered the game ranked 116th with their only win coming against LAMAR.

Skip Holtz needs to be fired for giving Charlie Weiss a signature moment. (stole this from my brother)

SEC WEST–Not much to learn from this weekend except that LSU is still alive, at least for one week, for big things and that Arkansas isn’t ready for prime time. Auburn won the second half against LSU 21-14, and they played better in all phases of the game. LSU’s win over Auburn boosted them to the top spot in the rankings while Georgia is still 2nd. I hope my mother-in-law and kids cooperate and let me watch the entire game Saturday. Ole Miss and Alabama play this weekend, and I think Ole Miss can keep this one fairly close. A&M will try to hang 70 on Arkansas.

Oregon, Ohio State, Clemson and Florida State look like they have the offenses to take the crown from the SEC, but we don’t know how any of them will fare against a GREAT defense. Clemson has beaten Georgia, but Georgia’s defense isn’t GREAT.

SEC EAST–Some are disagreeing with me, but I think Florida plays better with Tyler Murphy taking the snaps. Tennessee sucks! I saw on Twitter that Missouri had a good win. Then, I saw it was over Indiana. Georgia hosting LSU is HUGE! And, it may be too close to call. Both teams can look great, and both have their demons that the other can exploit. Even if Georgia wins this game, they may not have a cakewalk the rest of the season. I think Florida and Georgia Tech may have enough bullets to put them down.

BIG 10–Even though I had Notre Dame ranked higher, I thought Michigan State would beat them.  I’m not sure if Michigan is the worst 4-0 team ever, but they are the worst 4-0 team I’ve ever seen.  Besides these two games, did anyone watch any of the other teams play?

Big 12–West Virginia may be the worst 2-2 team EVER. Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are still undefeated, but it’s hard to say if any of these teams are very good. We’ll get a better idea Saturday when Oklahoma plays Notre Dame.

PAC 12–Get off my radio, USC. I wish Utah State had won the game. Utah may be good. Maybe. Stanford is probably good, but Arizona State was over-ranked. Washington State and Stanford play, and some are looking for the upset. Washington–Arizona is an elimination game to keep an eye on. Jim Mora is showing a lot of class. He never did while coaching the Falcons.

ACC–Florida State is still scary good–at least on offense. Clemson survived a tough one against NC State, but we don’t know how good State is yet either. Maryland is undefeated and looks good so far. I’m not sure if they’ll win more than 7. GEORGIA TECH got a little bloodied coming from 13 down to win 28-20, but you can’t count them out of any game. Do you hear that, Georgia?

THE RANKINGS–Lots of open dates and weak opponents led to a reshuffling at the top. Strength of schedule also had its effect. But, a lot of teams are starting to show their strength, and they may hold on to their spots.

WEEK 4
1 LSU 15.28329 4 0 11
2 GEORGIA 15.0153 2 1 2
3 OREGON 15.0071 3 0 1
4 UCLA 13.96313 3 0 3
5 ALABAMA 12.65312 3 0 5
6 WASHINGTON 12.48753 3 0 4
7 UCF 12.07496 3 0 6
8 WASHINGTON ST 11.78033 3 1 7
9 MICHIGAN 11.31855 4 0 10
10 CLEMSON 11.31778 3 0 18
11 MIAMI 10.8561 3 0 8
12 STANFORD 10.72199 3 0 28
13 GA TECH 10.57604 3 0 21
14 NOTRE DAME 9.930067 3 0 31
15 USC 8.688601 3 1 35
16 TEXAS TECH 8.671672 4 0 25
17 RUTGERS 8.202548 3 1 58
18 OKLAHOMA ST 8.019396 3 0 13
19 MARYLAND 7.86195 4 0 43
20 FLORIDA ST 7.703966 3 0 14
21 FRESNO ST 7.536 3 0 30
22 OKLAHOMA 7.387604 3 0 15
23 ILLINOIS 7.360184 2 1 16
24 MISSISSIPPI 7.306442 3 0 17
25 MISSOURI 7.296315 3 0 51
26 FLORIDA 6.897337 2 1 56
27 UTAH 6.787759 3 1 94
28 MINNESOTA 6.441207 4 0 40
29 BUFFALO 6.368617 1 2 19
30 NORTHWESTERN 6.163465 4 0 20
31 OHIO UNIV 6.11623 3 1 23
32 BAYLOR 5.902897 3 0 48
33 AUBURN 5.873412 3 1 12
34 VIRGINIA TECH 5.853215 3 1 34
35 NORTHERN ILL 5.587426 3 0 22
36 OHIO ST 5.452843 4 0 27
37 LOUISVILLE 4.690216 4 0 29
38 HOUSTON 4.626789 3 0 55
39 PITTSBURGH 4.26501 2 1 54
40 ARIZONA ST 4.243219 2 1 24
41 ARIZONA 4.219931 3 0 33
42 NAVY 3.618537 2 0 36
43 TEXAS AM 3.337644 3 1 44
44 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.925895 2 1 42
45 UTAH ST 2.405645 2 2 26
46 COLORADO 2.260319 2 0 46
47 PENN ST 2.172676 3 1 59
48 WISCONSIN 2.150349 3 1 66
49 NC STATE 2.019329 2 1 39
50 MICH ST 0.676883 3 1 47
51 NORTH CAROLINA 0.311808 1 2 45
52 TEXAS ST 0.283475 2 1 41
53 TENNESSEE 0.153283 2 2 38
54 MIDDLE TENN 0.116065 3 1 69
55 VIRGINIA 0.050155 2 1 49
56 NEBRASKA -0.50148 3 1 57
57 INDIANA -0.69207 2 2 32
58 WYOMING -0.9358 3 1 60
59 MISSISSIPPI ST -1.13199 2 2 75
60 UNLV -2.02 2 2 61
61 IOWA -2.12836 3 1 64
62 ARKANSAS -2.14714 3 1 37
63 NORTH TEXAS -2.22238 2 2 62
64 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO -2.23692 2 2 73
65 EAST CAROLINA -2.30021 2 1 63
66 BYU -2.48351 1 2 9
67 SYRACUSE -2.6345 2 2 76
68 TOLEDO -2.80436 2 2 83
69 ULM -2.85791 2 2 53
70 MEMPHIS -2.87231 1 2 107
71 NEVADA -2.98506 2 2 80
72 TCU -3.41886 1 2 72
73 RICE -4.33371 1 2 52
74 KANSAS -4.34952 2 1 93
75 CINCINNATI -4.42623 3 1 90
76 BOISE ST -4.52936 2 2 65
77 MARSHALL -4.53384 2 2 71
78 TEXAS -4.76388 2 2 102
79 KENTUCKY -4.88828 1 2 78
80 OREGON ST -5.29923 3 1 96
81 BOSTON COLLEGE -5.49047 2 1 82
82 VANDERBILT -5.49232 2 2 87
83 NEW MEXICO -5.57059 1 2 84
84 CALIFORNIA -5.60175 1 2 81
85 SMU -5.79661 1 2 85
86 SAN JOSE ST -5.85358 1 2 67
87 UL-LAF -6.09129 2 2 101
88 KENT ST -6.13785 1 3 74
89 DUKE -6.23487 2 2 68
90 WAKE FOREST -6.48107 2 2 103
91 WEST VIRGINIA -6.81939 2 2 70
92 OLD DOMINION -7.16006 2 2 91
93 UAB -7.35563 1 2 92
94 PURDUE -8.0282 1 3 86
95 TULSA -8.23064 1 2 95
96 BALL ST -8.46515 3 1 110
97 BOWLING GREEN -8.98934 3 1 99
98 TROY -9.01247 2 2 79
99 SOUTHERN MISS -9.5121 0 3 100
100 TULANE -11.2003 2 2 97
101 COLORADO ST -11.4572 1 3 106
102 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -11.5545 1 3 77
103 IDAHO -12.3823 0 4 105
104 ARMY -13.2604 1 3 88
105 HAWAII -14.5844 0 3 104
106 AKRON -14.9807 1 3 89
107 ARKANSAS ST -15.1269 2 2 50
108 SOUTH ALABAMA -15.3822 2 1 113
109 WESTERN KENTUCKY -15.7921 2 2 114
110 MIAMI (OH) -15.8787 0 3 108
111 AIR FORCE -16.059 1 3 112
112 UTEP -16.3619 1 2 111
113 CENTRAL MICH -16.6323 1 3 109
114 EASTERN MICH -16.984 1 3 98
115 NEW MEXICO ST -17.1752 0 4 115
116 LA TECH -21.0729 1 3 116
117 KANSAS ST -23.622 2 2 117
118 CONNECTICUT -30.267 0 3 118
119 IOWA ST -32.3622 0 2 119
120 SOUTH FLORIDA -36.3895 0 3 121
121 SAN DIEGO ST -37.2205 0 3 120
122 WESTERN MICH -53.6193 0 4 122
123 TEMPLE -55.2068 0 3 123
124 UMASS -57.6808 0 4 124
125 FLORIDA INT -76.3237 0 4 125
126 GEORGIA STATE -146.086 0 4 126

As usual, I hope you enjoyed the games, this post and this week.

Let me know what you think, and keep coming back.

Thanks,

Bill

PS:  I need to thank Scott Long and Gregg Doyel for their web and Twitter mentions.  Eyeballs mean everything.  Also, due to Gregg’s mention, I will begin contributing columns to the site http://www.morethanafan.net.  Come read some columns, leave some comments and click some ads.  One more thing, don’t forget about visiting the other pages like the donate page.

Thanks again.

Who’s Got the Power in College Football after Week 3?

Who’s Got The Power after Week 3?

Let’s start this week by congratulating Alabama for its great and scary win over Texas A&M. Bama’s offensive line and running issues appear to be behind them, and they MAY not face another team with an offense as explosive as A&M’s. Then again, when they play Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, and possibly Georgia, they could see teams with offenses nearly as explosive but who can also play some defense. As great as Manziel is, it should always be a little troubling when an opponent sets records against your defense. If they make it back to the title game, Oregon and Ohio State could both hang 70 on them, as it looks right now.

I’d like to also congratulate ULM for its win over Wake Forest, UCF beating Penn State, and UCLA for its 2nd half beatdown of Nebraska scoring 38 unanswered points from the midway point of the 2nd quarter to win 41-21 after being down 21-3. UCLA, you may be pretty good. Ole Miss beat Texas as it was expected to by nearly everyone outside of Texas.

Wisconsin earned special attention for finding a new way to give away a win. Their coach has been studying Les Miles closely.

I almost was able to congratulate Division 1 for not losing a single game to Division 1-AA. Almost. Thanks, Florida International.

The Roundup–SEC WEST
Alabama could still be great, but there is a little room for doubt. A lot of those A&M receivers were WAY too open. LSU could be great. Mettenberger hasn’t thrown a pick yet, and he has 9 TD passes. For your reference, he had 12 TD passes last season. The defense has shown signs of greatness, and it has gotten burned a few times. I’m not sure if it has been burned when all of its starters have been playing. Auburn could be more than just a good test this weekend. Texas A&M may be one of the scariest offensive teams out there. Its defense scares its own coaching staff. Arkansas had a solid win over Southern Miss which doesn’t tell us much. Ole Miss’s win over Texas looks good in the headlines, but Texas is currently outside the top 100. Don’t take that to discount Ole Miss. We’ll learn a lot more about them on September 28 when they play Alabama. Auburn’s game this week with LSU won’t define its season, but it will help show if Malzhan has a team ready to compete today for the division title. Mississippi State is the only team with a losing record in the West, and that should change after this weekend’s game with Troy. This could be another solid unit with the possibility of upsetting someone.

SEC EAST–With three teams open, there isn’t a lot to learn from this past weekend. South Carolina had a solid win over Vanderbilt, and Kentucky looked better than most expected in losing to Louisville by only 14. Tennessee looked horrible in its game with Oregon. Most teams look horrible against Oregon. Besides LSU-Auburn, the most intriguing game this week will be Florida-Tennessee. This could be a season-defining game for both teams.

The Big 10–Ohio State beat up California. Bo Pelini could start hearing whispers about his job security. Wisconsin has issues after putting the ball on the ground (on purpose). Michigan should have lost their game to Akron. I wrote last week that we may not know how good Michigan is until late into the season, and I’m standing by it. They shouldn’t face a challenge until the Michigan State game, yet they shouldn’t have faced a challenge with Akron. Lots of teams have unexpected bad games. We’ll see if Michigan is unexpectedly a bad team.

The Big 12–Not too much drama, outside of Austin. Texas Tech-TCU provided a textbook definition of poor officiating. Besides Oklahoma, OK State, Texas Tech and Baylor are undefeated. No great games this weekend, but the Baylor-ULM game should be a fun one. Avoid the Kansas-LA TECH game for fear your eyes will melt from watching the poor play.

ACC–Winston still looks awesome. It was against Nevada. Georgia Tech may be for real. Wake Forest is getting ready for basketball season. This week the GA Tech-North Carolina game should be pretty good. NC State gets to show us if Clemson is vulnerable.

PAC 12–Reported signs of life around the USC football complex, but I think its too early to tell. Yes, they dominated Boston College. A lot of teams have dominated Boston College the last few years. Boston College is into that. UCLA whooped Nebraska. Two fun, important games this weekend are Arizona-Stanford and Arizona State-Washington. All four teams are still undefeated.

All American–I don’t expect SMU to prove very much against Texas A&M this weekend, but Rutgers could show us something against Arkansas for the second year in a row.

Strangest rumors–to me. That DeLoss Dodds will be forced to step down as AD at Texas and be replaced by Mack Brown. Can you imagine the list of candidates Brown will draw up for his replacement? First of all, the obligatory call to Nick Saban will happen. After that, to preserve his legacy, I see luminaries such as Lane Kiffen, Terry Bowden, Tommy Bowden, Gene Chizik and Skip Holtz making the cut. Phil Fulmer will call them.

The Rankings–don’t fall in love with this week’s top 10 because a lot of these teams could be displaced. Several have open dates. The rest are playing extremely weak opponents. The winner of the LSU-Auburn game should move up a lot.

Here they are:

WEEK 3
1 OREGON 15.17108756 3 – 0 7
2 GEORGIA 14.41171419 1 – 1 1
3 UCLA 13.61333341 2 – 0 23
4 WASHINGTON 12.92539748 2 – 0 13
5 ALABAMA 12.23428459 2 – 0 12
6 UCF 12.19344824 3 – 0 38
7 WASHINGTON ST 11.18626575 2 – 1 3
8 MIAMI 11.13480385 2 – 0 4
9 BYU 10.77144237 1 – 1 6
10 MICHIGAN 10.29585437 3 – 0 5
11 LSU 9.189857679 3 – 0 9
12 AUBURN 8.482734581 3 – 0 10
13 OKLAHOMA ST 8.006391457 3 – 0 8
14 FLORIDA ST 7.845052222 2 – 0 14
15 OKLAHOMA 7.53690716 3 – 0 17
16 ILLINOIS 7.384632444 2 – 1 2
17 MISSISSIPPI 7.268839654 3 – 0 21
18 CLEMSON 6.867811111 2 – 0 11
19 NORTHWESTERN 6.334795605 3 – 0 15
20 NORTHERN ILL 6.298228222 2 – 0 20
21 GA TECH 6.226658 2 – 0 60
22 OHIO UNIV 6.174974123 2 – 1 48
23 ARIZONA ST 6.050958444 2 – 0 64
24 TEXAS TECH 6.028380667 3 – 0 27
25 UTAH ST 5.733176148 2 – 1 19
26 STANFORD 5.170108 2 – 0 25
27 OHIO ST 5.078005309 3 – 0 36
28 LOUISVILLE 5.01245916 3 – 0 33
29 FRESNO ST 4.666512395 2 – 0 30
30 NOTRE DAME 4.412461185 2 – 0 26
31 INDIANA 4.336620815 2 – 1 96
32 ARIZONA 4.261057679 3 – 0 57
33 VIRGINIA TECH 4.134273877 2 – 1 69
34 USC 4.062114285 2 – 1 108
35 NAVY 3.907650593 2 – 0 31
36 ARKANSAS 3.822283605 3 – 0 40
37 TENNESSEE 3.546369728 2 – 1 22
38 MINNESOTA 3.348550815 3 – 0 35
39 NC STATE 3.336583333 2 – 0 32
40 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.950787407 2 – 1 54
41 TEXAS ST 2.861969333 2 – 0 39
42 TEXAS AM 2.419701037 2 – 1 37
43 NORTH CAROLINA 2.398022593 1 – 1 44
44 COLORADO 2.282558222 2 – 0 50
45 MICH ST 2.214761284 3 – 0 51
46 MARYLAND 1.800994385 3 – 0 34
47 BAYLOR 1.213253556 2 – 0 52
48 VIRGINIA 0.973846889 1 – 1 55
49 RICE 0.759174111 1 – 1 68
50 ARKANSAS ST 0.753619506 2 – 1 67
51 MISSOURI 0.694451778 2 – 0 53
52 ULM 0.068146716 2 – 1 72
53 PITTSBURGH 0.04081837 1 – 1 74
54 HOUSTON -0.068508815 2 – 0 49
55 FLORIDA -0.173264222 1 – 1 58
56 NEBRASKA -0.479353432 2 – 1 28
57 RUTGERS -0.712450173 2 – 1 91
58 PENN ST -1.493566716 2 – 1 16
59 UNLV -1.994584741 1 – 2 95
60 NORTH TEXAS -2.012105037 2 – 1 109
61 WYOMING -2.035471704 2 – 1 62
62 IOWA -2.367011185 2 – 1 93
63 BOISE ST -2.797012593 2 – 1 80
64 WISCONSIN -2.908831975 2 – 1 56
65 SAN JOSE ST -3.00003442 1 – 1 73
66 DUKE -3.090899185 2 – 1 43
67 MIDDLE TENN -3.132127111 2 – 1 92
68 WEST VIRGINIA -3.208057877 2 – 1 63
69 EAST CAROLINA -3.259219022 2 – 1 41
70 MARSHALL -3.507840889 2 – 1 45
71 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO -3.516739852 1 – 2 46
72 TCU -3.531451901 1 – 2 70
73 KENT ST -3.623048198 1 – 2 71
74 MISSISSIPPI ST -4.079455506 1 – 2 75
75 FLORIDA ATLANTIC -4.606730815 1 – 2 79
76 SYRACUSE -4.624863506 1 – 2 77
77 KENTUCKY -4.81133684 1 – 2 76
78 TROY -4.996465235 2 – 1 42
79 NEVADA -5.243096593 1 – 2 83
80 CALIFORNIA -5.547600889 1 – 2 86
81 BOSTON COLLEGE -5.60536163 2 – 1 24
82 NEW MEXICO -5.621702519 1 – 2 59
83 TOLEDO -5.659434889 1 – 2 81
84 SMU -5.719930444 1 – 1 89
85 PURDUE -5.766871556 1 – 2 90
86 BUFFALO -5.769577506 1 – 2 82
87 VANDERBILT -5.959135852 1 – 2 85
88 ARMY -6.78115758 1 – 2 94
89 AKRON -6.817821481 1 – 2 101
90 CINCINNATI -6.836645728 2 – 1 97
91 UAB -7.012332963 0 – 2 102
92 KANSAS -7.126179111 1 – 1 64
93 UTAH -8.163970975 2 – 1 29
94 TULSA -8.22988163 1 – 2 104
95 OREGON ST -8.541935654 2 – 1 119
96 TULANE -8.552680099 2 – 1 116
97 EASTERN MICH -8.656591259 1 – 2 61
98 BOWLING GREEN -8.869919506 2 – 1 18
99 SOUTHERN MISS -9.324667531 0 – 3 105
100 UL-LAF -9.514958025 1 – 2 107
101 TEXAS -9.644657136 1 – 2 106
102 WAKE FOREST -10.6981916 1 – 2 98
103 HAWAII -11.25909919 0 – 2 113
104 IDAHO -11.28820657 0 – 3 110
105 COLORADO ST -11.37345249 1 – 2 111
106 MEMPHIS -12.19208815 0 – 2 88
107 MIAMI (OH) -12.4011543 0 – 2 112
108 CENTRAL MICH -12.64814484 1 – 2 78
109 BALL ST -12.84495511 2 – 1 47
110 UTEP -13.17014815 1 – 1 115
111 AIR FORCE -14.69332248 1 – 2 114
112 SOUTH ALABAMA -15.251828 2 – 1 117
113 WESTERN KENTUCKY -15.79091664 1 – 2 66
114 NEW MEXICO ST -16.63980321 0 – 3 87
115 LA TECH -17.63691514 1 – 2 84
116 KANSAS ST -21.36890489 2 – 1 118
117 CONNECTICUT -30.39491422 0 – 2 120
118 IOWA ST -32.24823326 0 – 2 121
119 SAN DIEGO ST -34.69610237 0 – 2 122
120 SOUTH FLORIDA -36.11974109 0 – 3 123
121 WESTERN MICH -52.76262741 0 – 3 125
122 TEMPLE -55.34946748 0 – 3 99
123 OLD DOMINION -55.38939605 0 – 3 100
124 UMASS -55.94312593 0 – 3 124
125 FLORIDA INT -75.74586696 0 – 3 103
126 GEORGIA STATE -98.07212973 0 – 3 126

I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it. Let me know what I can do to improve the site or the rankings.

Thanks,
Bill
PS: Last week was a record setting week for the number of visitors and views for this site. To be able to keep this page going, I have added a donations page. You can find it here, https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com/please-help-me-keep-this-page-going/.