2014 PRESEASON THOUGHTS ON WHO’S GOT THE POWER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

By Bill Ellis

 

Yep, I’m back again with this year’s version of the model, and more opinions about the games, the teams, and the coaches. This may actually be the best time of the season for all of the teams as a whole because most of the teams are still optimistic of kicking butt and taking names on their way to the first playoff.

 

For those of you reading my columns for the first time, I have developed a college power ranking model designed to show which teams have played the best against the best. Points are earned or lost for wins and losses, whether the games are home or away, and whether the margins are 17 points or greater. I don’t worry about other power rankings or polls, and my results are often different from the national polls until they catch up with my results.

 

For those of you that have read this in earlier years, this year’s model has undergone some HUGE changes from what you’ve seen in the past. This biggest change has to be the inclusion of the FCS (1-AA) teams into the rankings. Why? Several reasons. The biggest is because I needed a more accurate method of computing strength of schedule. Even with the doubling the size of the model for these teams, this system won’t be perfect since a lot of 1-AA teams play lower division teams, but it will be better than what I used in the past and a whole lot better than what the BCS used. No one knows what the playoff committee will use.

 

I’m also adding a new source of points based strictly on where a team’s opponent is ranked. The home/away and scoring margin formulas have changed to reflect the lower ranked teams. The historical adjustment in computed on a team-by-team basis rather than per conference.

 

I’ve also found it necessary to abandon my previous philosophy regarding preseason ranking after I realized that, before the historical adjustment, a win over Alabama State in week 1 would be worth as much as a win over Alabama. I couldn’t have this.

 

Since I had to re-work all of the previous years’ models to reflect these changes, the preseason ranking is also based on each team’s 4-year historical ranking, which has also been altered. This ranking is set for week 1, only, and no team’s position in the rankings is protected. They will be ranked where their earned points put them, and you can expect the rankings to vary wildly the first few weeks of the season.

 

One thing you may notice is that decent teams that lose in the first week will seemingly pull big upsets over the next two weeks. Not quite. A lot of these teams will be ranked lower than their opponents because they lost while their opponents, either 1-A or 1-AA, either won or didn’t play. So, don’t worry Wisconsin fans when your team is ranked 110^th or worse after week 1. Win after that, and all will be fine.

 

Again, I strive to show which teams played the best against the best; therefore, this model is reactive rather than predictive. Nonetheless, I’ve picked winners in EVERY game by having the higher team win. Like I just wrote, this WILL NOT occur. But, I mostly to test the model. I do plan to update the predictions throughout the season, but maybe not in the first few weeks because it just takes too long.

 

The outcome of these flawed picks has USC beating South Carolina for the national championship. I really hope this doesn’t happen.

 

Here’s how the preseason top 20 looks:

1	STANFORD
2	ALABAMA
3	OREGON
4	OKLAHOMA
5	FLORIDA ST
6	SOUTH CAROLINA
7	LSU
8	NOTRE DAME
9	GEORGIA
10	BAYLOR
11	OKLAHOMA ST
12	OHIO ST
13	UCLA
14	MICH ST
15	CLEMSON
16	USC
17	TEXAS AM
18	MISSOURI
19	WISCONSIN
20	NEBRASKA

 

 

Two things I and many college football fans share is the morbid desire for upsets and losses to 1-AA teams to happen to every other team besides our favorite.  The following teams could lose in week 1 to 1-AA teams:  Iowa State to North Dakota State, South Florida to Western Carolina, Memphis to Austin Peay, Wyoming to Montana, Air Force to Nicholls State, Nevada to Southern Utah, San Diego State to Northern Arizona, Florida International to Bethune-Cookman, Charlotte (transitioning to 1-A) to Campbell, Central Michigan to Chattanooga, Eastern Michigan to Morgan State, Georgia State to Abilene Christian and New Mexico State to Cal Poly.

 

These are some other teams that need to be on upset alert, according to my ranking:  LSU to Wisconsin (hell, I hope not), Georgia to Clemson, South Carolina to Texas AM, Penn State to UCF, Purdue to Western Michigan, Louisville to Miami, Colorado to Colorado State, Washington State to Rutgers, Tulsa to Tulane, Boise State to Ole Miss, Utah State to Tennessee, Kent State to Ohio, and Louisiana Monroe to Wake Forest.

 

There are ten or so 1-AA teams that start the season in the top half of the ranking with one, North Dakota State, looking like it could be competitive with most of the 1-A teams on a weekly basis. On the other hand, the following teams need to quit wasting their fans’ time and money and quit playing ball:  UTEP, Florida International, Southern Miss, UAB, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Idaho and New Mexico State.

 

In addition, the following teams either recently transitioned or are transitioning to 1-AA, and they look like they need to go back to 1-AA:  Charlotte, UMASS, Georgia State and Appalachian State. To be fair, their strength of schedule will get better. Appalachian State is the only one that looks to have any upside.

 

Several teams have started football teams from scratch with plans to play 1-A ball and grab some of the TV money. These include Texas San Antonio, UMASS, Georgia State, Charlotte, Mercer and Kennesaw State. It’s going to be interesting to see how the recent decision about autonomy for the Big 5 affects these teams and others looking to jump to 1-A.  I’m also wondering if any of the bowl sponsors will rethink their plans since they will be officially hosting irrelevant teams.

 

Here’s how I see the top 20 looking after Week 1:

2014 PREDICTIONS
WEEK 1	POINTS	RECORD		LST RNK
1	FLORIDA ST	43.3608	1	–	0	5
2	GEORGIA	40.948	1	–	0	9
3	LSU	39.69	1	–	0	7
4	PENN ST	37.989	1	–	0	28
5	SOUTH CAROLINA	37.908	1	–	0	6
6	LOUISVILLE	36.288	1	–	0	29
7	USC	36.08	1	–	0	16
8	BOISE ST	33.285	1	–	0	40
9	UTAH ST	32.6304	1	–	0	53
10	WASHINGTON ST	29.2698	1	–	0	57
11	BOWLING GREEN	28.7496	1	–	0	58
12	OHIO ST	28.428	1	–	0	12
13	ALABAMA	28.244	1	–	0	2
14	IOWA ST	27.232	1	–	0	70
15	NOTRE DAME	27.016	1	–	0	8
16	KENT ST	26.128	1	–	0	79
17	UCLA	25.992	1	–	0	13
18	COLORADO	25.1328	1	–	0	90
19	AUBURN	24.9964	1	–	0	26
20	BAYLOR	24.4948	1	–	0	10

 

 

A few thoughts about the SEC:  As much as it pains me to write this, Alabama has earned its hype and deserves it until they lose on the field. LSU could be outstanding if their QBs protect the ball and their defensive line matures quickly. Ole Miss can be dangerous if it can learn how to beat a current contender. A&M and Missouri can be trouble if they start playing defense. Georgia is replacing its QB, but if that is pretty smooth and Jeremy Pruitt gets the defense to even approach its potential, they could be GREAT. South Carolina could contend for a national championship if it could play all twelve games without remembering that it’s South Carolina and not supposed to be that good. Coming off all of those injuries last season, Florida could have a Missouri-like turnaround. Did I miss any team? What? Auburn?

 

Let’s talk Auburn. I was a believer in Malzahn well before last season, and I had no idea they’d play for the national championship. I think he is either the best or second to Bobby Petrino at play-calling, and he certainly gets a lot from his offenses. Plus, he is great at adapting his offense to the talent at hand. With this being said, I think Auburn has a good season. Good like 9-3. Why, since almost everybody has them in the top 5 right now?

 

Simply, I won’t believe their defense is better until I see it against a decent team. This may not happen until week 6 when they play LSU. As great as their recruiting has been the past few years, I think they’ll have a problem replacing Dee Ford. Even if they do, I also expect the DCs in the conference to have a better grasp at slowing down their offense which will place more pressure on the defense. In other words, they could actually play a little better defense than last season, but still give up more yardage if their offense isn’t quite as good. I believe all of this because Auburn only beat one good team by 8 points or more last season—Missouri in the SEC championship.

 

I’m wondering if Tennessee can become a factor again. I’m not confident in Derek Mason continuing the success at Vanderbilt, but it would be pretty cool if he can. I don’t know why Mississippi State and Dak Prescott are getting so much love. Mississippi State’s season was incredibly ordinary, finishing 6-6 even with winning 3 of its last 4.  don’t expect Prescott to be a Heisman finalist, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mullen is fired this season.

 

A few thoughts on BAMA: Saban is still a smart guy and a liar. Besides winning most of his games, he is clearly the greatest evaluator of coaching talent I’ve ever seen. What I don’t know for sure is whether this evaluation includes the potential for the assistants to get busted and put the school on probation.

 

Anyway, you may not have heard, but Saban hired Lane Kiffin in January when Doug

Nussmeier left to become Michigan’s offensive coordinator. I have heard that Saban pushed Nussmeier out because of their performance against Auburn and Oklahoma which I don’t believe. I’ve also heard that Saban wanted to install a hurry-up offense, which I’ve never seen Kiffin run. I’ve also heard that Saban is also getting an alternative to be his hand-picked successor in case some school finally lures away Kirby Smart. What I believe is that Nussmeier was looking around, wanted the HC position with Washington, and took the Michigan gig to get out of Saban’s pressure. When this happened, Kiffin, who orchestrated the same pro-set offense, was available. Could be a smart move from an Xs-Os standpoint.

 

But Kiffin brings some intangibles. Besides being an incredible recruiter, he may be the all-time, most hated coach to ever set foot in Tennessee. Good thing Tennessee only produces a handful of really good players each year. He also has the fantastic potential to do some incredibly stupid things. This, again, is why I think Saban is so smart.

 

See, I think Saban knows Kiffin will do one or more stupid things that will eventually force Paul Bryant, Jr. to ask Saban for his head. This is when Saban will lie again and claim that he loves all of his assistants, and won’t fire any of them. Even though Bryant will back down, Saban will have somebody leak this meeting on to social media, and the following firestorm will allow Saban to resign while claiming some honor. In this fashion, Kiffin becomes Saban’s GOLDEN ANCHOR.

 

A few more thoughts: Notre Dame has a mediocre schedule despite not scheduling a 1-AA team (they, Oklahoma, Texas, USC and UCLA almost never do). Despite having a few strong opponents, they easily could end up with over half them having losing seasons. I was going to say that they could make another championship run, but their latest academic scandal puts this in doubt.

 

Sleep on Oklahoma. One thing I believe from Saban is that he and the staff treated the Sugar Bowl as a consolation game. Again. They do this, and their players take their cues from the coaching staff. They reap benefits from this in killer recruiting and having something to yell at the players about the following season. Because of this, I don’t believe Oklahoma will suddenly be great again. Their QB wasn’t great except against Alabama. Don’t bet the house on the Sooners. By the way, I sure do respect Bob Stoops for overlooking DGB’s numerous run-ins with authorities regarding drugs and violence and adding him to the team. I really, really do. Look out for Baylor and Texas Tech will be the teams to beat.

 

I don’t believe USC will regain the summit until Sark hires a real defensive staff. I think UCLA will be good again, but not great.  Stanford and Oregon should battle it out again.

 

I hope Virginia Tech or Cincinnati can upset Ohio State early this season, but I’m not counting on it. Michigan State could be legitimate again this year. Is there anything Pelini can say that could get him in trouble with his AD?

 

Thanks. Now, let me know what you think.

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WHO’S GOT THE POWER HALFWAY THROUGH THE SEASON?–WEEK 7

Howdy, all.  If you haven’t seen this column before (and I’m assuming you haven’t), this is where you’ll find out which teams have played the best against the best.  I can tell you this by looking at the results of my college football power ranking model, which I’ve been designing over the past five years.  I could give you the details of how the model works, but I won’t in this column.  I’d get bored writing it, and you’d never read this again.  If you really want to find out, go to my site, https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com, and click on the “How it Works” page.  That page may not be completely up to date with the latest model, but I’ll check it soon.

Here’s the model in a nutshell:  just like with every model out there, teams earn points from wins and lose them from losses.  I factor in Home/Away, scoring margins of 17 points or greater and strength of schedule.  A couple of things that make my model different:  every team begins the season evenly ranked.  I also incorporate a historical bias adjustment based on the team’s performance over the past four seasons.  This bias affects the points earned/lost by a team’s opponents and is partly reflected in that team’s strength of schedule.  Points earned or lost vary given the relative ranking of the two teams.  One more thing—I hate 1-AA teams.  Playing them doesn’t usually give a team much in winning points, but it adversely affects its strength of schedule.  Lose to a 1-AA opponent generally leads to free fall.

My rankings won’t look like the AP or the Coaches’ Polls because mine doesn’t suck.  Those polls generally catch up to mine as the season progresses.  Also, you’ll see some teams ranked ahead of some teams that beat them like VA TECH and GEORGIA over ALABAMA and CLEMSON.  This is because these other teams have played MUCH better competition since those early games.  You’ll also see quite a bit of movement at the top of the ranking.  There was a lot from last week because so many teams either got beat or had an open date.  It’s hard to earn points when you’re not playing.

Now, before I get into the rankings for this week, here are a few thoughts.

THE SEC EAST—Like a lot of you, I was surprised to see that Missouri was undefeated heading into their game against Georgia, until I looked at their schedule.  Even though Georgia was ranked #2 entering the game, I wasn’t very surprised with the outcome.  The game may have been different if Georgia hadn’t been down to its 3^rd running back and scout team wide outs.  The game would have been different if Georgia would just play some damn defense.  But, I have to give Missouri their due.  They whipped Georgia at Athens, and would be firmly in control of the East if their QB hadn’t suffered that separated shoulder.  If Missouri beats Florida and South Carolina over the next two weeks, they may still control the East.  It’s no sure thing with their finishing with Ole Miss and A&M.  I think Missouri just opened the door for South Carolina to backdoor Georgia and slip into the championship game.

Georgia—they’ve lost too much on offense, and they’ll probably lose to either Florida or Auburn in the next few weeks, if not both.  Florida could find themselves back around the top 10 if they can find a way to slow down Georgia’s offense in two weeks.  That’s easier said than done since Georgia should have Gurley back to tote the rock.  Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky all combine to suck.

THE SEC WEST—LSU may have found some defense.  They’ll need it with Ole Miss this weekend and Alabama and A&M lurking.  A&M is still dangerous, but Ole Miss seemed to study LSU’s game film last year and slowed them down, some, at first.  Most of y’all didn’t stay up to watch the whole game, but Ole Miss could have won that game.  Ole Miss won the 4^th quarter 21-20, but their final series consisted of 3 incomplete passes that took 34 seconds off the clock, including the punt.  I think they should have tried running the ball to work the clock, but it may not have worked since A&M had all of their timeouts.

Arkansas shouldn’t be this bad.  Bad enough to give up 52 (FIFTY TWO) unanswered points.  Some teams like Georgia get worse due to injuries, and some like Arkansas seem to find their suck groove.  Florida vs Missouri might be a good one, and LSU vs Ole Miss could be a shoot-out.

THE BIG 12—Pundits nationwide are talking up Baylor.  Yes, they’ve won their games by an average of 63-18, but here’s another number for you.  112.  This is the average rank of their opponents.  You’re still not sure?  Arguably, their toughest opponent so far has been Louisiana-Monroe, and they aren’t playing nearly as well as they were last season when they beat Arkansas.  They have two more bad teams in the next two weeks.  After that, they could realistically lose their final five.  I don’t know that this will happen, but I will be surprised if they win more than 9.  I’m calling it.  Write it down.

How the hell did Texas beat Oklahoma?  The only thing I can figure is that Bob Stoops is worried that Texas’s next hire will beat him badly, so he did his part in helping Mack keep his job.  A lot of people between Austin and Norman think they both should go.

Texas Tech is the other undefeated team left in the Big 12, but they needed some zebra help to beat TCU.  I like Kingsbury, but their next three games could be pretty tough.  By the way, if anyone wants to know, I’ll tell you how the Big 12 is cheating the other major conferences again this season.

Texas Tech vs West Virginia could be a fun one depending on which schizo W VA team shows up.  Same with TCU vs Oklahoma State.  Like Ole Miss, TCU may be the most dangerous 3-3 team out there.

THE ACC—Hell of a game this weekend between Florida State and Clemson.  The winner will be in the thick of the national title conversation and should be as long as it’s Florida State.  I only write this because Clemson is playing two 1-AA teams this season.  But, I’m not completely sold on either of these two.  Both of these teams have that old, Spurrier-esque, shiney pants offense and defenses that don’t scare Wake Forest.  In three weeks, Miami and Virginia Tech square off.  These teams aren’t getting the pub, but their combined record is 12-1, and both of them appear to be more balanced than Clemson and Florida State.  The winners of each of these two games should meet in the ACC championship game, which could be the game they originally envisioned.   By the way, you’ll see below that Virginia Tech and Miami are ranked higher than Clemson and Florida State.

There always seems to be a lot of unforeseen upsets in the ACC every year.  I have no idea how East Carolina was able to beat North Carolina so badly and a lot worse than South Carolina and Virginia Tech beat them, but if there’s one team that could rise up this week, it’s the Tarheels.  Beware, Canes.

THE PAC 12—Right now, the Pac 12 looks like it has finally displaced the Big 12 and is taking its place as the other main power conference along with the SEC.  This may change before the season ends, and the ACC may have something to say about it.  At this time, eight of the twelve teams may really be pretty good.  I don’t believe that USC has the depth to win a lot, but eight wins is possible.  Arizona and Washington State aren’t too bad, and they may be good enough to pull a couple of upsets.  Colorado and Cal are pretty bad, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Dykes can’t right the ship at Cal after a couple of seasons.   The two marque games are Washington vs Arizona State and UCLA vs Stanford.

THE BIG 10—Nice win by Penn State.  Stanford’s loss could be HUGE for the Big 10!  If they go on to win the PAC 12, they may put a less than deserving Ohio State into the national championship game.

THE RANKING—Stanford and Georgia had started building up a nice cushion between them and the rest of the teams before their losses last week.  Almost five points.  This week, the top seven teams are all within five points.  As we get deeper into conference play, we should see less dramatic movement from week-to-week as the teams play more opponents near their own rank.  The teams are starting to find their slots.  Missouri, Utah, Texas and BYU are the big risers this week.  Oklahoma was the big loser, but they’ll get a chance to climb back up in two weeks when they play Texas Tech.

I feel the need to give a shout out to one team that should become bowl-eligible for the first time in a very long time, and that’s Tulane.  They’re 5-2, and they just whipped East Carolina who beat the hell out of North Carolina a few weeks ago.  Also, a buddy of mine here in Atlanta wants me to give a shout out to Georgia State.  I’ve got to say, the Panthers are AWFUL.  Not only are they 0-3 against 1-A opponents, they’re also 0-3 against 1-AA teams.  Georgia State is in its second year of transitioning to 1-A while Old Dominion is in its first.  Appalachian State, Charlotte and Georgia Southern are coming aboard next season.    The Sunbelt and Conference USA are gaining members but losing strength of schedule for the next few seasons.  This could be a win for the American Athletic Conference, but I doubt it.  They have as many teams ranked 100 or worse (3) as they do in the top 40.

				PTS FOR				LAST
	WEEK 7			RANKING	WINS		LOSSES	RANK
1	OREGON			23.63595	6	–	0	8
2	LSU			21.23867	6	–	1	14
3	MISSOURI			20.46564	6	–	0	21
4	VIRGINIA TECH			20.32547	6	–	1	10
5	ALABAMA			19.22687	6	–	0	4
6	GEORGIA			19.14231	4	–	2	2
7	MIAMI			18.90265	5	–	0	3
8	UCLA			18.78483	5	–	0	5
9	BAYLOR			17.62909	5	–	0	9
10	OHIO ST			17.38769	6	–	0	6
11	UTAH			17.33559	4	–	2	43
12	CLEMSON			16.66357	6	–	0	11
13	STANFORD			15.54044	5	–	1	1
14	NOTRE DAME			15.42052	4	–	1	12
15	FLORIDA ST			14.50098	5	–	0	13
16	SOUTH CAROLINA			14.45711	5	–	1	17
17	TEXAS AM			14.07664	5	–	1	22
18	TEXAS			13.96206	4	–	2	59
19	BYU			13.55437	4	–	2	36
20	AUBURN			12.91001	5	–	1	18
21	MICH ST			12.57977	5	–	1	26
22	ARIZONA ST			11.65589	4	–	2	19
23	LOUISVILLE			11.28704	6	–	0	38
24	TEXAS TECH			11.03896	6	–	0	23
25	WASHINGTON			10.43599	4	–	2	15
26	OKLAHOMA			10.06743	5	–	1	7
27	OREGON ST			9.794508	5	–	1	48
28	FRESNO ST			9.128933	5	–	0	25
29	PENN ST			9.085254	4	–	2	73
30	NORTHERN ILL			8.982916	6	–	0	28
31	UCF			8.90191	4	–	1	29
32	NEBRASKA			8.6945	5	–	1	33
33	WISCONSIN			8.447594	4	–	2	54
34	USC			8.443763	4	–	2	46
35	HOUSTON			8.340271	5	–	0	34
36	WEST VIRGINIA			7.568521	3	–	3	32
37	MICHIGAN			6.924423	5	–	1	16
38	FLORIDA			6.891494	4	–	2	24
39	PITTSBURGH			6.405576	3	–	2	27
40	MARYLAND			6.244358	5	–	1	39
41	BALL ST			5.973202	6	–	1	42
42	TULANE			5.645937	5	–	2	64
43	RUTGERS			4.290492	4	–	2	30
44	SYRACUSE			4.155316	3	–	3	68
45	INDIANA			4.114484	3	–	3	37
46	ILLINOIS			3.43832	3	–	2	44
47	WASHINGTON ST			3.395455	4	–	3	20
48	WAKE FOREST			3.281227	3	–	3	45
49	BOISE ST			3.063267	4	–	2	65
50	TCU			2.82388	3	–	3	53
51	IOWA			2.45699	4	–	2	50
52	OKLAHOMA ST			2.378484	4	–	1	49
53	UNLV			1.566802	4	–	2	52
54	NORTHWESTERN			1.439724	4	–	2	40
55	DUKE			1.255006	4	–	2	70
56	MISSISSIPPI ST			1.017578	3	–	3	61
57	MISSISSIPPI			0.271178	3	–	3	51
58	RICE			0.217837	4	–	2	58
59	TENNESSEE			0.173284	3	–	3	55
60	MARSHALL			0.088867	4	–	2	57
61	UL-LAF			-0.28572	3	–	2	56
62	GA TECH			-0.48428	3	–	3	41
63	ARIZONA			-0.87826	3	–	2	47
64	MINNESOTA			-1.36227	4	–	2	60
65	BUFFALO			-1.4087	4	–	2	62
66	WESTERN KENTUCKY			-1.87982	4	–	2	66
67	SAN JOSE ST			-1.94847	3	–	3	76
68	BOSTON COLLEGE			-2.87868	3	–	3	67
69	VANDERBILT			-3.29726	3	–	3	69
70	EAST CAROLINA			-3.46602	4	–	2	31
71	ARKANSAS			-4.27309	3	–	4	71
72	COLORADO			-4.68795	2	–	3	72
73	UTAH ST			-5.37659	3	–	4	63
74	OLD DOMINION			-5.49777	4	–	2	79
75	WYOMING			-5.69586	4	–	2	88
76	KENTUCKY			-5.98584	1	–	5	80
77	MEMPHIS			-6.17033	1	–	4	74
78	CENTRAL MICH			-6.69517	3	–	4	103
79	KANSAS			-6.9318	2	–	3	77
80	NORTH TEXAS			-6.98734	3	–	3	95
81	CALIFORNIA			-7.26754	1	–	5	82
82	KENT ST			-7.71383	2	–	5	81
83	OHIO UNIV			-8.12884	4	–	2	35
84	NORTH CAROLINA			-8.43753	1	–	4	87
85	BOWLING GREEN			-8.62622	5	–	2	83
86	TOLEDO			-8.67499	3	–	3	91
87	PURDUE			-9.06268	1	–	5	89
88	SMU			-9.09509	1	–	4	92
89	ARMY			-9.73553	3	–	4	100
90	NC STATE			-10.0423	3	–	3	78
91	TROY			-10.3728	4	–	3	96
92	NAVY			-10.5203	3	–	2	75
93	VIRGINIA			-10.6512	2	–	4	93
94	CINCINNATI			-11.4468	4	–	2	101
95	NEVADA			-11.9109	3	–	3	99
96	ARKANSAS ST			-12.3441	3	–	3	102
97	FLORIDA ATLANTIC			-13.1365	2	–	5	94
98	TULSA			-13.467	2	–	4	104
99	COLORADO ST			-13.901	2	–	4	86
100	TEXAS SAN ANTONIO			-14.7359	2	–	5	98
101	NEW MEXICO			-14.79	2	–	4	90
102	ULM			-14.8803	3	–	4	106
103	MIDDLE TENN			-15.2722	3	–	4	85
104	TEXAS ST			-17.0989	3	–	3	84
105	UAB			-17.252	2	–	4	107
106	IDAHO			-17.6008	1	–	6	97
107	SAN DIEGO ST			-19.3115	3	–	3	115
108	SOUTH FLORIDA			-21.1255	2	–	4	118
109	SOUTH ALABAMA			-21.581	2	–	3	110
110	HAWAII			-21.9589	0	–	6	108
111	SOUTHERN MISS			-23.1095	0	–	5	111
112	LA TECH			-23.141	2	–	4	113
113	KANSAS ST			-23.3593	2	–	4	112
114	IOWA ST			-23.5712	1	–	3	114
115	EASTERN MICH			-25.2875	1	–	5	105
116	AIR FORCE			-27.2302	1	–	6	109
117	AKRON			-27.5782	1	–	6	117
118	NEW MEXICO ST			-29.1672	0	–	6	120
119	UTEP			-31.3546	1	–	5	119
120	MIAMI (OH)			-31.9226	0	–	6	116
121	CONNECTICUT			-38.444	0	–	5	121
122	UMASS			-58.6301	1	–	5	124
123	WESTERN MICH			-61.1993	0	–	7	122
124	TEMPLE			-62.5671	0	–	6	123
125	FLORIDA INT			-76.5671	1	–	5	125
126	GEORGIA STATE			-149.525	0	–	6	126

I’ll try to get a little more humor into next week’s column.  Let me know what you think about the rankings.  Trust me, I can take it.  I’m planning on updating my projections for the end of the season starting next week.

Guys, I need some help to be able to continue with this website.  I’m just asking for $5 a head.  If twenty of you lend a hand, I may be able to get my own domain name.  If two hundred of you help, this action will begin to look feasible.  Please click on this link at the top of the page starting with https://collegefootballpowerranking.wordpress.com/please-help-me-keep-this-page-going/.  I really appreciate this.

Thanks,

Bill

WEEK 4’S IN THE BOOKS–AND HERE’S WHO’S GOT THE POWER!

WEEK 4’s IN THE BOOKS–AND HERE’S WHO’S GOT THE POWER!

LUCK–This term is tossed around loosely by a lot of pundits, and certainly by me. I absolutely realize that there is a whole lot of hard work put in by each player on the field prior to the games. I know they practice their technique and timing, study their plays, watch film, lift tons and consult with their coaches. I also know that sometimes luck is a major factor in the outcomes of games.

One recipient of some luck coming into last week’s games was Arizona State. Their luck?  That the referees didn’t spot the ball quicker or that Wisconsin’s QB didn’t spike the ball instead of kneeling kept Wisconsin from running another play or lining up for the short, potentially game-winning field goal. This bit of luck then must have been overlooked by most bettors and line-setters, because they should have gotten beaten worse than the final margin of 14 (AZ St won the 4th quarter 21-3). One line I saw had the game set at 8.5 points.

But, the luckiest team in the land on Saturday had to be Virginia Tech. I had VA TECH coming into the game ranked 34th while Marshall was 71st. Marshall had them 21-14 from 9 minutes left in the 2nd until 3 minutes left in the 4th. They had some chances to put VA TECH away only to throw a pick, miss a kick or do something else stupid.

Following a 15 yard gain on 4th and 13, VA TECH had the ball at Marshall’s 2. Thomas sprinted right and threw a pass towards wide open Willie Byrn heading to the corner of the endzone. A woeful pass. As the pass was dropping two yards short of Byrn, a Marshall defender heading towards the sideline tipped the ball BACKWARDS AND BACK IN PLAY AND RIGHT INTO THE ARMS OF WILLIE BYRN! In the third overtime, Marshall was called on a pretty sketchy pass interference penalty (the announcers thought so as well) in the end zone that set up VA TECH’s final score. On Marshall’s final possession, they had a receiver who had his jersey pulled completely over his shoulder pad by a VA TECH defender while entering the end zone. This kept him from making a play on the pass, but the penalty wasn’t called. Congratulations, VA TECH.

The second luckiest team this week was Florida, for two reasons. The first is easy to see. They played Tennessee. The second is that, from Jeff Driskell’s season-ending injury, they may have found themselves a gamer to take the snaps in Tyler Murphy. I know he started off looking nearly as bad as Driskell, but he turned it on in the 2nd quarter with his arm and his legs. This young man may have needed the opportunity and the confidence of his coaches to start to shine. In saying this, I’m not glad that Driskell broke his leg. I feel bad for him, but Florida may have found the quarterback they’ve been seeking since Tebow left to give their offense an identity.

RANDOM THOUGHTS–NC State may be pretty good, and they could have possibly beaten Clemson if they had protected the ball.

I’m not sure how good Fresno State is because of my doubts about Boise State, but Fresno’s coach Tim DeRuyter should make some lists of those looking to can their coaches.

Saw Houston Nutt on a football roundtable. I wonder if he’s called Austin yet. I wonder if Tuberville has called Austin yet.

Just because Saban says he isn’t interested in the Texas gig doesn’t mean he’s not or at least taking the phone calls.

Heard a lot about Texas this weekend, but I didn’t hear anyone say anything about Mack keeping his job. Did the 10 point win over Kansas State buy him any time? Probably not. As bad as Texas has played, entering the game ranked 102nd, Kansas State has been worse–ranked 117th before the game.

I hate Virginia Tech’s uniforms and helmets. Not as bad as I hate Maryland’s, but there’s plenty of hate to go around.

Maybe Oregon isn’t that good since Tennessee looks awful. If David Ash has another concussion, will Texas win any more games this season?

Why is Florida kneeling on the ball with over three minutes left? They ended up punting.

USC’s game is on my radio station for the second week in a row. I live in Atlanta.

I saw the kick return, but, really, how is North Texas tied with Georgia in the 3rd quarter?

Arkansas swallowed the olive.

Mississippi State looked better against Troy, but it’s Troy, people.

Auburn may end up pretty good. I can see them splitting games with Ole Miss and Arkansas.

There’s no shame in Ohio State playing FAMU, but why were they throwing the ball so much and so late?

I was off a little with predicting that BAYLOR and ULM would be a close one.

Love him or hate him, Jeremy Hill is GOOD! He had over 150 yards rushing in the first half for LSU, and sat the entire 4th quarter after gaining 183 yards.

LSU needs to seriously tighten up that pass defense.

Charlie Weiss needs to be fired now for saying that the turnover that ended LA TECH’s chances in the loss to Kansas 13-10 was a “signature” moment. LA TECH entered the game ranked 116th with their only win coming against LAMAR.

Skip Holtz needs to be fired for giving Charlie Weiss a signature moment. (stole this from my brother)

SEC WEST–Not much to learn from this weekend except that LSU is still alive, at least for one week, for big things and that Arkansas isn’t ready for prime time. Auburn won the second half against LSU 21-14, and they played better in all phases of the game. LSU’s win over Auburn boosted them to the top spot in the rankings while Georgia is still 2nd. I hope my mother-in-law and kids cooperate and let me watch the entire game Saturday. Ole Miss and Alabama play this weekend, and I think Ole Miss can keep this one fairly close. A&M will try to hang 70 on Arkansas.

Oregon, Ohio State, Clemson and Florida State look like they have the offenses to take the crown from the SEC, but we don’t know how any of them will fare against a GREAT defense. Clemson has beaten Georgia, but Georgia’s defense isn’t GREAT.

SEC EAST–Some are disagreeing with me, but I think Florida plays better with Tyler Murphy taking the snaps. Tennessee sucks! I saw on Twitter that Missouri had a good win. Then, I saw it was over Indiana. Georgia hosting LSU is HUGE! And, it may be too close to call. Both teams can look great, and both have their demons that the other can exploit. Even if Georgia wins this game, they may not have a cakewalk the rest of the season. I think Florida and Georgia Tech may have enough bullets to put them down.

BIG 10–Even though I had Notre Dame ranked higher, I thought Michigan State would beat them.  I’m not sure if Michigan is the worst 4-0 team ever, but they are the worst 4-0 team I’ve ever seen.  Besides these two games, did anyone watch any of the other teams play?

Big 12–West Virginia may be the worst 2-2 team EVER. Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are still undefeated, but it’s hard to say if any of these teams are very good. We’ll get a better idea Saturday when Oklahoma plays Notre Dame.

PAC 12–Get off my radio, USC. I wish Utah State had won the game. Utah may be good. Maybe. Stanford is probably good, but Arizona State was over-ranked. Washington State and Stanford play, and some are looking for the upset. Washington–Arizona is an elimination game to keep an eye on. Jim Mora is showing a lot of class. He never did while coaching the Falcons.

ACC–Florida State is still scary good–at least on offense. Clemson survived a tough one against NC State, but we don’t know how good State is yet either. Maryland is undefeated and looks good so far. I’m not sure if they’ll win more than 7. GEORGIA TECH got a little bloodied coming from 13 down to win 28-20, but you can’t count them out of any game. Do you hear that, Georgia?

THE RANKINGS–Lots of open dates and weak opponents led to a reshuffling at the top. Strength of schedule also had its effect. But, a lot of teams are starting to show their strength, and they may hold on to their spots.

	WEEK 4
1	LSU			15.28329	4	–	0	11
2	GEORGIA			15.0153	2	–	1	2
3	OREGON			15.0071	3	–	0	1
4	UCLA			13.96313	3	–	0	3
5	ALABAMA			12.65312	3	–	0	5
6	WASHINGTON			12.48753	3	–	0	4
7	UCF			12.07496	3	–	0	6
8	WASHINGTON ST			11.78033	3	–	1	7
9	MICHIGAN			11.31855	4	–	0	10
10	CLEMSON			11.31778	3	–	0	18
11	MIAMI			10.8561	3	–	0	8
12	STANFORD			10.72199	3	–	0	28
13	GA TECH			10.57604	3	–	0	21
14	NOTRE DAME			9.930067	3	–	0	31
15	USC			8.688601	3	–	1	35
16	TEXAS TECH			8.671672	4	–	0	25
17	RUTGERS			8.202548	3	–	1	58
18	OKLAHOMA ST			8.019396	3	–	0	13
19	MARYLAND			7.86195	4	–	0	43
20	FLORIDA ST			7.703966	3	–	0	14
21	FRESNO ST			7.536	3	–	0	30
22	OKLAHOMA			7.387604	3	–	0	15
23	ILLINOIS			7.360184	2	–	1	16
24	MISSISSIPPI			7.306442	3	–	0	17
25	MISSOURI			7.296315	3	–	0	51
26	FLORIDA			6.897337	2	–	1	56
27	UTAH			6.787759	3	–	1	94
28	MINNESOTA			6.441207	4	–	0	40
29	BUFFALO			6.368617	1	–	2	19
30	NORTHWESTERN			6.163465	4	–	0	20
31	OHIO UNIV			6.11623	3	–	1	23
32	BAYLOR			5.902897	3	–	0	48
33	AUBURN			5.873412	3	–	1	12
34	VIRGINIA TECH			5.853215	3	–	1	34
35	NORTHERN ILL			5.587426	3	–	0	22
36	OHIO ST			5.452843	4	–	0	27
37	LOUISVILLE			4.690216	4	–	0	29
38	HOUSTON			4.626789	3	–	0	55
39	PITTSBURGH			4.26501	2	–	1	54
40	ARIZONA ST			4.243219	2	–	1	24
41	ARIZONA			4.219931	3	–	0	33
42	NAVY			3.618537	2	–	0	36
43	TEXAS AM			3.337644	3	–	1	44
44	SOUTH CAROLINA			2.925895	2	–	1	42
45	UTAH ST			2.405645	2	–	2	26
46	COLORADO			2.260319	2	–	0	46
47	PENN ST			2.172676	3	–	1	59
48	WISCONSIN			2.150349	3	–	1	66
49	NC STATE			2.019329	2	–	1	39
50	MICH ST			0.676883	3	–	1	47
51	NORTH CAROLINA			0.311808	1	–	2	45
52	TEXAS ST			0.283475	2	–	1	41
53	TENNESSEE			0.153283	2	–	2	38
54	MIDDLE TENN			0.116065	3	–	1	69
55	VIRGINIA			0.050155	2	–	1	49
56	NEBRASKA			-0.50148	3	–	1	57
57	INDIANA			-0.69207	2	–	2	32
58	WYOMING			-0.9358	3	–	1	60
59	MISSISSIPPI ST			-1.13199	2	–	2	75
60	UNLV			-2.02	2	–	2	61
61	IOWA			-2.12836	3	–	1	64
62	ARKANSAS			-2.14714	3	–	1	37
63	NORTH TEXAS			-2.22238	2	–	2	62
64	TEXAS SAN ANTONIO			-2.23692	2	–	2	73
65	EAST CAROLINA			-2.30021	2	–	1	63
66	BYU			-2.48351	1	–	2	9
67	SYRACUSE			-2.6345	2	–	2	76
68	TOLEDO			-2.80436	2	–	2	83
69	ULM			-2.85791	2	–	2	53
70	MEMPHIS			-2.87231	1	–	2	107
71	NEVADA			-2.98506	2	–	2	80
72	TCU			-3.41886	1	–	2	72
73	RICE			-4.33371	1	–	2	52
74	KANSAS			-4.34952	2	–	1	93
75	CINCINNATI			-4.42623	3	–	1	90
76	BOISE ST			-4.52936	2	–	2	65
77	MARSHALL			-4.53384	2	–	2	71
78	TEXAS			-4.76388	2	–	2	102
79	KENTUCKY			-4.88828	1	–	2	78
80	OREGON ST			-5.29923	3	–	1	96
81	BOSTON COLLEGE			-5.49047	2	–	1	82
82	VANDERBILT			-5.49232	2	–	2	87
83	NEW MEXICO			-5.57059	1	–	2	84
84	CALIFORNIA			-5.60175	1	–	2	81
85	SMU			-5.79661	1	–	2	85
86	SAN JOSE ST			-5.85358	1	–	2	67
87	UL-LAF			-6.09129	2	–	2	101
88	KENT ST			-6.13785	1	–	3	74
89	DUKE			-6.23487	2	–	2	68
90	WAKE FOREST			-6.48107	2	–	2	103
91	WEST VIRGINIA			-6.81939	2	–	2	70
92	OLD DOMINION			-7.16006	2	–	2	91
93	UAB			-7.35563	1	–	2	92
94	PURDUE			-8.0282	1	–	3	86
95	TULSA			-8.23064	1	–	2	95
96	BALL ST			-8.46515	3	–	1	110
97	BOWLING GREEN			-8.98934	3	–	1	99
98	TROY			-9.01247	2	–	2	79
99	SOUTHERN MISS			-9.5121	0	–	3	100
100	TULANE			-11.2003	2	–	2	97
101	COLORADO ST			-11.4572	1	–	3	106
102	FLORIDA ATLANTIC			-11.5545	1	–	3	77
103	IDAHO			-12.3823	0	–	4	105
104	ARMY			-13.2604	1	–	3	88
105	HAWAII			-14.5844	0	–	3	104
106	AKRON			-14.9807	1	–	3	89
107	ARKANSAS ST			-15.1269	2	–	2	50
108	SOUTH ALABAMA			-15.3822	2	–	1	113
109	WESTERN KENTUCKY			-15.7921	2	–	2	114
110	MIAMI (OH)			-15.8787	0	–	3	108
111	AIR FORCE			-16.059	1	–	3	112
112	UTEP			-16.3619	1	–	2	111
113	CENTRAL MICH			-16.6323	1	–	3	109
114	EASTERN MICH			-16.984	1	–	3	98
115	NEW MEXICO ST			-17.1752	0	–	4	115
116	LA TECH			-21.0729	1	–	3	116
117	KANSAS ST			-23.622	2	–	2	117
118	CONNECTICUT			-30.267	0	–	3	118
119	IOWA ST			-32.3622	0	–	2	119
120	SOUTH FLORIDA			-36.3895	0	–	3	121
121	SAN DIEGO ST			-37.2205	0	–	3	120
122	WESTERN MICH			-53.6193	0	–	4	122
123	TEMPLE			-55.2068	0	–	3	123
124	UMASS			-57.6808	0	–	4	124
125	FLORIDA INT			-76.3237	0	–	4	125
126	GEORGIA STATE			-146.086	0	–	4	126

As usual, I hope you enjoyed the games, this post and this week.

Let me know what you think, and keep coming back.

Thanks,

Bill

PS:  I need to thank Scott Long and Gregg Doyel for their web and Twitter mentions.  Eyeballs mean everything.  Also, due to Gregg’s mention, I will begin contributing columns to the site http://www.morethanafan.net.  Come read some columns, leave some comments and click some ads.  One more thing, don’t forget about visiting the other pages like the donate page.

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WEEK 2–LOOK WHO’S CRACKING THE TOP 10

Who’s Got The Power in Week 2?

Before we get into the games, let’s get a little somber business out of the way. PLEASE BOW YOUR HEADS–Into your hands, O Bear Bryant, we commend the Texas football program under Mack Brown.  Acknowledge, we humbly beseech you, this  program that nearly rivaled your own at Alabama.  Receive this program into your touchdown signaling arms and grant it the blessed rest of everlasting peace and the company of other great programs that eventually outlived their competitiveness.  Please  grant  the Longhorn fans who are bereaved the spirit of faith and courage, that they may have the strength to face the weeks and months to come with steadfastness and patience; not sorrowing as those without hope but in thankful remembrance of the great times this program provided, and in the joyful expectation of the wins over Oklahoma the new hire will provide.  All this we ask in the name of the Holy Football Trinity–Bear Bryant, John McKay and Knute Rockne, AMEN. ALL POINTS BULLETIN:  There is a reported disappearance of offense from Gainesville, FL.  Though the offense has been sick for several years, it seems to have vanished over the past three days.  Foul play definitely occurred. RANDOM THOUGHTS FROM THE WEEKEND:  TCU’s play in the first half against SE LA was pathetic.  How did WKU commit five turnovers in the span of six plays?  As bad as Florida was playing, they probably would have won the game if Driskell had not have thrown that awful, last interception.  An incompletion or better would have resulted in a field goal, increased momentum and more than enough time to score again to take the lead and the game.  Connor Shaw’s fumble may have cost South Carolina the game against Georgia and possibly a whole lot more.  Michigan State beat South Florida 21-6.  Last week, McNeese State beat South Florida 54-21.  Saw an Oregon player basically get clothes-lined by his teammate.  You’ve got to like the on-sides kick call by Georgia against South Carolina.  Old Dominion, in its transition year to FBS (1-A) has seven lower division opponents.  Les Miles was mentioned in headlines about possible transgressions by Oklahoma State from 2001-2011, but not mentioned within the articles.  Nice try to smear the guy.  Player from Texas A&M said that Florida State and LSU offered him $600K to sign with them seven months ago.  He didn’t mention what Texas A&M offered.  Ole Miss could effectively end Mack Brown’s tenure at Texas.  I think BYU should have demonstrated its religious principles by kneeling on the ball the entire 4th quarter against Texas.  They still would have won by double digits.  Manny Diaz did an awful job preparing the defense for Texas.  Major Applewhite was just as bad with his play calling.  Washington State is not that good.  USC may be that bad. Now to the results, six teams jumped into the top 10 that were ranked 39th or worse.  Georgia and Oregon were expected, and Miami wasn’t too surprising, but Washington State, Illinois and BYU shocked me.  I know that USC under-performed against Hawaii, but this is beyond belief.  How can Cincinnati dominate Purdue and then be dominated by Illinois?  BYU lost a close game to Virginia.  The same Virginia that seems to lose to 1-AA teams early every season.  Then, the Mormans DOMINATED Texas in a historic fashion.  Unfortunately for all of the new entries except Georgia, they probably won’t be there at the end of the season. SEC EAST:  Georgia is number one this week, and they may still be there after LSU visits.  Based on their porous defensive play, LSU should beat them in three weeks.  Florida gets the week off to enjoy watching the Miami game films before restoring hope to the Tennessee faithful.  South Carolina plays Vanderbilt next week.  They were my pick to win the EAST, but they’ll need LSU and another team to beat Georgia.  Though they are 2-0, if Tennessee upsets Oregon next week, it may be the upset of the season.  Missouri has an open week before playing another stiff.  Kentucky did look a lot better roughing up Miami OH, but they shouldn’t expect the same this weekend against Louisville. SEC WEST:  Texas A&M beat Sam Houston State badly as they were supposed to.  They have had three starters on defense suspended for the past two games.  Since these suspensions four times longer than Manziel’s, I hope they involved high level felonies.  They play Bama next week in the HUGE game of the week.  If both teams play like they have so far, A&M should win.    I’m not going so far as to pick them.  Alabama was idle, and not gaining any points caused them to slide from 2nd to 11th.  Don’t worry.  If they win on Saturday, they’ll gain plenty of points.  LSU dropped eight spots for playing UAB.  Unfortunately, when you’re on top, the only way to go is down.  They shouldn’t drop as much after disposing Kent State this weekend.  Ole Miss beat SEMO, and it cost them thirteen spots.  They may not gain much back now that Texas is ranked 101.  Arkansas should coast by its third stiff, Southern Miss.  Auburn jumped up to 10th which is more of a function of the teams around them playing bad teams than their victory over Arkansas St.  They and Mississippi State play Saturday in a game that could decide which team secures last place in the WEST. BIG 10: There were only two or three intriguing games this weekend.  Illinois made their game with Cincinnati intriguing with the upset, Northwestern beat Syracuse just like last year, and Michigan beating Notre Dame.  A lot of us felt Notre Dame would struggle because of their QB situation, but they had a chance late in this one.  Michigan might be pretty good, but we may not know for sure until they play Ohio State.  None of their other opponents are inspiring much fear.  There should be some entertaining games this weekend with four teams playing PAC 12 opponents and the IOWA-IOWA ST match-up. BIG 12: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State may not be horrible.  Texas Tech and Baylor could be okay, too.  I am surprised the Oklahoma-West Virginia game was that close considering the fact that West Virginia barely slipped past Bill & Mary last week.  Texas Tech-TCU this weekend should be fun.  I hope Rice beats Kansas.  Ole Miss-Texas could be historic. PAC 12:  All 12 teams played Saturday, but there were only 1.5 games worth mentioning.  Oregon destroyed Virginia.  They were supposed to.  Washington State beat USC.  This wasn’t supposed to happen.  I’m not upset about it, just surprised.  Better match-ups this weekend.  Colorado-Fresno State should be competitive.  Now, USC-Boston College and Washington-Illinois look competitive, too. ACC:  I heard some announcers during the Florida-Miami game discussing how the ACC is beating the SEC this year.  They are doing well.  A little better than expected, but the record between the conferences is 2-2.  Miami’s win over Florida may be one that gives them some momentum, but I doubt it.  They could actually see a better offense when they take the field again in two weeks to play Savannah State.  Duke-Ga Tech could be a fun one to watch Saturday.  ULM-Wake Forest, too.  Boston College-USC is a train wreck special. ALL THE REST:  Tulane lost to South Alabama.  As bad as Tulane is, this shouldn’t happen.  South Alabama is in its first full season as a 1-A member and lost last week to Southern Utah.  They are now the lowest ranked team to not lose to a 1-AA team, so far.  SMU barely beat Montana State 31-30 while Western Michigan lost to Nicholls State and Georgia State lost to Tenn-Chattanooga.  There shouldn’t be any games to mention upcoming unless these teams rise up and upset the big boys or get upset by lower division stiffs. THE RANKINGS:

	WEEK 2			POINTS		RECORD		LAST RNK
1	GEORGIA			14.31785	1	–	1	80
2	ILLINOIS			11.79324	2	–	0	68
3	WASHINGTON ST			11.49741	1	–	1	92
4	MIAMI			11.13036	2	–	0	39
5	MICHIGAN			11.08518	2	–	0	26
6	BYU			10.80496	1	–	1	101
7	OREGON			9.292941	2	–	0	53
8	OKLAHOMA ST			8.354399	2	–	0	5
9	LSU			8.162664	2	–	0	1
10	AUBURN			7.273124	2	–	0	25
11	ALABAMA			7.082837	1	–	0	2
12	CLEMSON			6.825759	2	–	0	3
13	WASHINGTON			6.747948	1	–	0	6
14	FLORIDA ST			6.731733	1	–	0	7
15	NORTHWESTERN			6.619849	2	–	0	12
16	PENN ST			6.5648	2	–	0	9
17	OKLAHOMA			6.453486	2	–	0	29
18	BOWLING GREEN			6.324209	2	–	0	15
19	UTAH ST			5.674054	1	–	1	104
20	NORTHERN ILL			5.656366	1	–	0	10
21	MISSISSIPPI			5.240111	2	–	0	8
22	TENNESSEE			5.181542	2	–	0	53
23	UCLA			4.834143	1	–	0	16
24	STANFORD			4.513432	1	–	0	46
25	NOTRE DAME			4.464439	1	–	0	22
26	NEBRASKA			4.305199	2	–	0	30
27	BOSTON COLLEGE			4.213151	2	–	0	68
28	NAVY			4.134641	1	–	0	46
29	TEXAS TECH			3.977786	2	–	0	18
30	UTAH			3.920194	2	–	0	21
31	FRESNO ST			3.794519	2	–	0	13
32	NC STATE			3.684782	2	–	0	14
33	MARYLAND			3.657158	2	–	0	34
34	MINNESOTA			3.63765	2	–	0	35
35	OHIO ST			3.485711	2	–	0	31
36	LOUISVILLE			3.331092	2	–	0	28
37	UCF			3.208113	2	–	0	44
38	TEXAS AM			3.079679	2	–	0	27
39	TEXAS ST			2.853129	2	–	0	32
40	EAST CAROLINA			2.747873	2	–	0	45
41	ARKANSAS			2.492226	2	–	0	24
42	NORTH CAROLINA			2.212327	1	–	1	77
43	TEXAS SAN ANTONIO			2.179515	1	–	1	41
44	TROY			2.17299	2	–	0	36
45	DUKE			1.987697	2	–	0	53
46	OHIO UNIV			1.957389	1	–	1	100
47	MARSHALL			1.847648	2	–	0	42
48	BALL ST			1.728915	2	–	0	53
49	MICH ST			1.508952	2	–	0	33
50	HOUSTON			1.496576	2	–	0	53
51	COLORADO			1.416817	2	–	0	40
52	BAYLOR			1.181673	2	–	0	53
53	SOUTH CAROLINA			0.960932	1	–	1	4
54	VIRGINIA			0.762047	1	–	1	17
55	MISSOURI			0.661683	2	–	0	53
56	WISCONSIN			0.240831	2	–	0	43
57	FLORIDA			-0.16782	1	–	1	20
58	NEW MEXICO			-0.20685	1	–	1	116
58	ARIZONA ST			-0.20685	1	–	1	116
60	GA TECH			-1.24624	1	–	0	53
61	WYOMING			-1.73399	1	–	1	79
62	EASTERN MICH			-1.8739	1	–	1	68
63	WEST VIRGINIA			-2.17787	1	–	1	68
64	WESTERN KENTUCKY			-2.20503	1	–	1	19
65	KANSAS			-2.6445	1	–	0	46
65	ARIZONA ST			-2.6445	1	–	0	46
67	RICE			-3.00187	0	–	1	82
68	ARKANSAS ST			-3.29485	1	–	1	52
69	VIRGINIA TECH			-3.40494	1	–	1	74
70	PITTSBURGH			-3.44128	0	–	1	88
71	TCU			-3.45874	1	–	1	75
72	KENT ST			-3.46365	1	–	1	68
73	ULM			-3.46987	1	–	1	78
74	SAN JOSE ST			-3.6664	1	–	1	53
75	KENTUCKY			-3.87111	1	–	1	112
76	SYRACUSE			-4.03748	0	–	2	86
77	MISSISSIPPI ST			-4.14528	1	–	1	76
78	FLORIDA ATLANTIC			-4.7043	0	–	2	91
79	CENTRAL MICH			-4.74144	1	–	1	89
80	TOLEDO			-4.91672	0	–	2	84
81	BUFFALO			-5.01493	0	–	2	81
82	BOISE ST			-5.13209	1	–	1	97
83	NEW MEXICO ST			-5.15901	0	–	2	90
84	MEMPHIS			-5.40651	0	–	1	46
85	NEVADA			-5.45974	1	–	1	102
86	CALIFORNIA			-5.50648	1	–	1	96
87	LA TECH			-5.51298	1	–	1	95
88	VANDERBILT			-5.53319	1	–	1	103
89	SMU			-5.84322	1	–	1	99
90	PURDUE			-5.89476	1	–	1	94
91	RUTGERS			-5.94133	1	–	1	106
92	MIDDLE TENN			-6.21813	1	–	1	53
93	UNLV			-6.27346	0	–	2	107
94	IOWA			-6.3284	1	–	1	105
95	CINCINNATI			-6.44256	1	–	1	11
96	ARMY			-6.5901	1	–	1	68
97	TEMPLE			-6.61034	0	–	2	83
98	INDIANA			-6.71501	1	–	1	53
99	OLD DOMINION			-6.76056	0	–	2	108
100	WAKE FOREST			-6.82339	1	–	1	53
101	UAB			-7.1085	0	–	2	113
102	AKRON			-7.15986	1	–	1	109
103	FLORIDA INT			-7.1724	0	–	2	110
104	TULSA			-7.55834	1	–	1	118
105	SOUTHERN MISS			-8.43591	0	–	2	117
106	TEXAS			-8.44545	1	–	1	37
107	UL-LAF			-9.5981	0	–	2	93
108	USC			-9.93309	1	–	1	23
109	NORTH TEXAS			-10.718	1	–	1	38
110	IDAHO			-10.736	0	–	2	115
111	COLORADO ST			-11.2013	0	–	2	111
112	MIAMI (OH)			-12.2089	0	–	2	114
113	HAWAII			-12.2611	0	–	2	98
114	AIR FORCE			-13.6398	1	–	1	53
115	UTEP			-17.1481	0	–	1	46
116	TULANE			-17.6016	1	–	1	53
117	SOUTH ALABAMA			-22.8842	1	–	1	119
118	KANSAS ST			-23.7358	1	–	1	121
119	OREGON ST			-24.1347	1	–	1	121
120	CONNECTICUT			-29.6462	0	–	1	121
121	IOWA ST			-31.0445	0	–	1	121
122	SAN DIEGO ST			-34.7883	0	–	2	125
123	SOUTH FLORIDA			-34.9065	0	–	2	125
124	UMASS			-52.6037	0	–	2	85
125	WESTERN MICH			-52.6585	0	–	2	87
126	GEORGIA STATE			-98.5445	0	–	2	119

I hope you enjoyed reading this.  Keep posting those awesome comments.  Tell some others about the ranking.  Really. Thanks, Bill

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Δ

2013–WEEK 1

First of all, I meant to post my Week 1 picks, and I didn’t.  This changes what I planned to write such as how absolutely called Washington’s win over Boise St and taking Washington St and the points, and my missing Ole Miss losing to Vanderbilt.  I also had Clemson narrowly beating Georgia, Fresno St over Rutgers and Northwestern over Cal in games that looked to be too close to call.  The only ones that can verify my picks are those I communicated with over the past few weeks.  So, unless they leave comments, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

What a great opening week!  More good games than I can remember in an opening week.  The Ole Miss game was wonderful!  They may be pretty good, too.  The winner between Florida State and Clemson should remain in the national conversation all year unless Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech knocks either team out.  Most of the teams picked by the mags to win their conferences won convincingly.

On the flip side, there were WAY to many horrible performances by the seven teams that lost to 1-AA teams, and a few others that almost did.  North Dakota State will have problems scheduling big boy teams after this season, but Eastern Illinois and McNeese State may not get too many calls after dominating San Diego State and South Florida, respectively.  Eastern Washington won again, and it seems like they beat a 1-A team every year.

Regarding the SEC EAST, South Carolina looks for real, and they are my pick to win the division.  Georgia is still in the mix if they can replace their kicker and primary wide receiver, but they need to beat SC this weekend.  Georgia fans are killing Aaron Murray and Mark Richt this morning.  Murray certainly had a lot of poorly thown balls caught in the first half, but he wasn’t the reason they lost.  They just couldn’t handle Clemson’s speed.  Some callers were saying that Mark Richt could be fired if Georgia starts the season 1-4.  Richt won’t be fired after this start, but if this start includes more injuries that add up to 7 or 8 losses, his job could be in jeopardy.

Florida didn’t show too much against Toledo, and they had a bunch of players sitting out.  If they beat Miami, they may be for real.  Missouri and Tennessee looked good, but it’s tough to tell from that level of competition.  Vanderbilt is in a hole after losing to Ole Miss.  Kentucky stinks.

A lot of people are jumping off of Texas A&M’s bandwagon after Manziel’s stupidity and LSU’s discovery of offense, but this may be a little premature.  A&M struggled early against Rice, but dominated the second half.  They can still beat BAMA in week 3 and have a good shot to win it all.  Is it possible that Alabama’s new linemen actually need some seasoning before they play up to expectations?  This bodes well for A&M, not so well for LSU.  Speaking of the Tigers, the new defensive players didn’t miss a beat.  The new offensive linemen played well, too.  Even the QB played well.  A few pundits are looking at his completion percentage.  What that doesn’t indicate was how good TCU’s pass defense was throughout the game.  Several SEC teams will be a little stronger against the run, but I’m not sure if any will be able to knock away that many passes without getting flagged.  Mett put the ball where it needed to go almost every time.

Ole Miss should have a puncher’s chance in every game if their players stay healthy, but they look like they may need a couple more GOOD linemen to compete at the highest level every week.  It’s hard to really judge Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State right now.  Auburn could have lost, but I think the win over Washington State will look better as the season progresses.  Leach had the team playing better at the end of last season, and he should win more than 3 this season if he doesn’t get too many guys hurt next week against USC.  Mississippi State lost to Oklahoma State as most people expected, and I’m expecting to see the same type of team Mullen’s put out there the last few years.  Arkansas controlled the game against a fairly weak Louisiana Lafayette.

The Big 12–Welcome to STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE HELL, BIG 12.  This is what happens when 2, TWO, of your teams lose to 1-AA teams.  Plus, West Virginia almost lost their game with Bill & Mary.  If West Virginia loses this week, some of those couch burners will be longing for the days of Bill Stewart.  Oklahoma and Texas won comfortably like they were supposed to, but neither dominated right out the gate.  I hope Baylor or Texas Tech rise up this season.

In the Big 10, only Wisconsin and Michigan kicked their 1-A opponents in the head, but these were two MAC teams that are looking up to their leaders.

Several of the PAC 12 teams played well, and Washington did so against a quality opponent in Boise State.  UCLA scored more than I expected, even though Nevada isn’t very good.  USC scored less than I expected against Hawaii which shouldn’t be very good.  Stanford didn’t play.

How about Jameis Winston for Florida State?  He looked so good, that the TV announcers didn’t even notice how poor Florida State’s pass was in the first half.  This team, like Clemson, could win a LOT of games.  Clemson looked good, and is fun to watch unless you’re a fan of solid defense.  Virginia’s win over BYU was a good one, but a good game over Oregon this week will get someone to notice.  Miami plays Florida, so we may know more about both teams after that.  None of the other teams that won played any good teams.

 

One of the reasons I didn’t get to post my picks was because I was reworking my model.  In the past, I had a formula based upon the performance of a team’s conference over the past four years.  Though this bias calculation was fine and fairly accurate for the top teams in the top conferences, it skewed the results for middle and lower teams in the top conferences.  So, I decided to rework the past year’s results to reflect each team’s performance for the past four years.  This is still ongoing, so the rankings today could be restated later.

Unlike the previous couple of years, today’s rankings do not have as many early season possible outliers that were present in the first few weeks.  The only one in the top 20 is Western Kentucky, checking in at 19th.  This is basically because there were so few dominating wins over decent teams.

My brother and others will question the validity of the rankings this week because LSU comes in at number 1.  This objective result came about because of so few good matchups.  Next week, LSU should drop a few spots simply because they are playing a historically weak team, UAB.

Like the last few seasons, there are groups of tied teams.  These are the teams that didn’t play, the teams that beat their 1-AA opponents by 17 points or worse, the teams that barely beat their 1-AA opponents, the teams that barely lost to their 1-AA opponents and South Florida and San Diego State who got beat badly by their 1-AA opponents.  These two teams should forfeit the rest of their games and fold their programs.

	WEEK 1			POINTS		RECORD		LST RNK
1	LSU			7.583714	1	–	0	1
2	ALABAMA			7.106	1	–	0	1
3	CLEMSON			6.982857	1	–	0	1
4	SOUTH CAROLINA			6.911143	1	–	0	1
5	OKLAHOMA ST			6.782286	1	–	0	1
6	WASHINGTON			6.763429	1	–	0	1
7	FLORIDA ST			6.682286	1	–	0	1
8	MISSISSIPPI			5.946286	1	–	0	1
9	PENN ST			5.814286	1	–	0	1
10	NORTHERN ILL			5.704286	1	–	0	1
11	CINCINNATI			5.632	1	–	0	1
12	NORTHWESTERN			5.408857	1	–	0	1
13	FRESNO ST			4.988571	1	–	0	1
14	NC STATE			4.931143	1	–	0	1
15	BOWLING GREEN			4.877714	1	–	0	1
16	UCLA			4.852571	1	–	0	1
17	VIRGINIA			4.822857	1	–	0	1
18	TEXAS TECH			4.710857	1	–	0	1
19	WESTERN KENTUCKY			4.534286	1	–	0	1
20	FLORIDA			4.418857	1	–	0	1
21	UTAH			4.26	1	–	0	1
22	NOTRE DAME			4.076286	1	–	0	1
23	USC			4.004571	1	–	0	1
24	ARKANSAS			3.887714	1	–	0	1
25	AUBURN			3.831429	1	–	0	1
26	MICHIGAN			3.824857	1	–	0	1
27	TEXAS AM			3.818571	1	–	0	1
28	LOUISVILLE			3.809143	1	–	0	1
29	OKLAHOMA			3.714857	1	–	0	1
30	NEBRASKA			3.637143	1	–	0	1
31	OHIO ST			3.469714	1	–	0	1
32	TEXAS ST			3.428857	1	–	0	1
33	MICH ST			3.194286	1	–	0	1
34	MARYLAND			3.127143	1	–	0	1
35	MINNESOTA			2.960571	1	–	0	1
36	TROY			2.808571	1	–	0	1
37	TEXAS			2.806571	1	–	0	1
38	NORTH TEXAS			2.756286	1	–	0	1
39	MIAMI			2.753143	1	–	0	1
40	COLORADO			2.722857	1	–	0	1
41	TEXAS SAN ANTONIO			2.658857	1	–	0	1
42	MARSHALL			2.649429	1	–	0	1
43	WISCONSIN			2.621143	1	–	0	1
44	UCF			2.482857	1	–	0	1
45	EAST CAROLINA			2.128571	1	–	0	1
46	KANSAS			0	0	–	0	1
46	ARIZONA ST			0	0	–	0	1
46	STANFORD			0	0	–	0	1
46	MEMPHIS			0	0	–	0	1
46	UTEP			0	0	–	0	1
46	NAVY			0	0	–	0	1
52	TENNESSEE			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	MISSOURI			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	INDIANA			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	BAYLOR			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	WAKE FOREST			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	GEORGIA TECH			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	DUKE			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	OREGON			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	ARIZONA			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	AIR FORCE			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	SAN JOSE ST			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	TULANE			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	MIDDLE TENN			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	BALL ST			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	ARKANSAS ST			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
52	HOUSTON			-0.24977	1	–	0	1
68	ILLINOIS			-0.74977	1	–	0	1
68	WEST VIRGINIA			-0.74977	1	–	0	1
68	BOSTON COLLEGE			-0.74977	1	–	0	1
68	ARMY			-0.74977	1	–	0	1
68	KENT ST			-0.74977	1	–	0	1
68	EASTERN MICH			-0.74977	1	–	0	1
74	VIRGINIA TECH			-2.25029	0	–	1	1
75	TCU			-2.30371	0	–	1	1
76	MISSISSIPPI ST			-2.49229	0	–	1	1
77	NORTH CAROLINA			-2.52686	0	–	1	1
78	ULM			-2.53629	0	–	1	1
79	WYOMING			-2.56571	0	–	1	1
80	GEORGIA			-2.80429	0	–	1	1
81	BUFFALO			-2.904	0	–	1	1
82	RICE			-2.92286	0	–	1	1
83	TEMPLE			-2.992	0	–	1	1
84	TOLEDO			-3.09886	0	–	1	1
85	UMASS			-3.13971	0	–	1	1
86	SYRACUSE			-3.17429	0	–	1	1
87	WESTERN MICH			-3.19429	0	–	1	1
88	PITTSBURGH			-3.39086	0	–	1	1
89	CENTRAL MICH			-3.44771	0	–	1	1
90	NEW MEXICO ST			-3.608	0	–	1	1
91	FLORIDA ATLANTIC			-3.74314	0	–	1	1
92	WASHINGTON ST			-3.74571	0	–	1	1
93	UL-LAF			-3.79343	0	–	1	1
94	PURDUE			-3.88771	0	–	1	1
95	LA TECH			-3.894	0	–	1	1
96	CALIFORNIA			-3.94743	0	–	1	1
97	BOISE ST			-3.982	0	–	1	1
98	HAWAII			-4.10743	0	–	1	1
99	SMU			-4.248	0	–	1	1
100	OHIO UNIV			-4.28057	0	–	1	1
101	BYU			-4.35143	0	–	1	1
102	NEVADA			-4.38114	0	–	1	1
103	VANDERBILT			-4.39057	0	–	1	1
104	UTAH ST			-4.43143	0	–	1	1
105	IOWA			-4.71429	0	–	1	1
106	RUTGERS			-4.81714	0	–	1	1
107	UNLV			-5.12914	0	–	1	1
108	OLD DOMINION			-5.3	0	–	1	1
109	AKRON			-5.68857	0	–	1	1
110	FLORIDA INT			-5.86143	0	–	1	1
111	COLORADO ST			-5.89429	0	–	1	1
112	KENTUCKY			-6.16286	0	–	1	1
113	UAB			-6.36571	0	–	1	1
114	MIAMI (OH)			-6.42086	0	–	1	1
115	IDAHO			-7.37629	0	–	1	1
116	NEW MEXICO			-7.51457	0	–	1	1
117	SOUTHERN MISS			-7.766	0	–	1	1
118	TULSA			-10.1577	0	–	1	1
119	KANSAS ST			-28.6498	0	–	1	1
119	IOWA ST			-28.6498	0	–	1	1
119	OREGON ST			-28.6498	0	–	1	1
119	UCONN			-28.6498	0	–	1	1
119	GEORGIA ST			-28.6498	0	–	1	1
119	SOUTH ALABAMA			-28.6498	0	–	1	1
125	SOUTH FLORIDA			-33.6498	0	–	1	1
125	SAN DIEGO ST			-33.6498	0	–	1	1

As usual, I’d like to know what you think.  What would be unusual is if any of you do leave some comments, or any likes.  I’ll have the conference pages updated later.

Thanks,

Bill